Key Stat Watch
Hot Jockey: N/A
Cold Jockey: N/A
Hot Trainer: N/A
Cold Trainer: N/A
Weather: 88 Degrees Sunny. Expect fast/firm.
Race 1: 3YO UnzipMe 75k [F]– 5.5F Turf
Pace Prediction: Moderate
Selections: #1 Blue Sky Baby 5-1, #4 Bulletproof One 5-2, #3 Aqua Seaform Shame 4-1
#1 Blue Sky Baby makes her second start off the layoff and trainer Philip D’Amato wins 26% of the time with the move. She looked impressive improving her career best Beyer to an 84 and beating OC 40k company. She is confidently hiked up to the listed stakes levels, and hopefully Rispoli can get her a nice trip stalking the pace. #4 Bulletproof One looks like lone speed and will be tough if she runs back to her prior turf form in July. She seems a bit hard to trust at a short price and will need the lead to win this race. I won’t be surprised if she wins, but her last race leaves me a tad concerned. #3 Aqua Seaform Shame drops down from the Grade I stake level where she was clearly overmatched in the Del Mar Oaks. Prat gets the mount here, and Aqua goes back to what she does best, turf sprinting. Workouts aren’t amazing, but she should be a player underneath against easier competition.
Race 2: 3YO OC 20k/N1X [S] – 6F Dirt
Pace Prediction: Moderate
Selections: #6 Kristi’s Tiger 4-1, #3 Loud Loud Music 7-2, #5 Cheap Cheap Cheap 3-1
Somewhat of an open race here, so I will take a shot with #4 Kristi’s Tiger in the hopes that she can stalk the pace duel between the #3 and #5. She has the best dirt Beyer in the field and won impressively routing at the allowance 50k level at Del Mar. Rispoli sticks around in what should be an easier field. #3 Loud Loud Music ran okay routing in a listed stake at Del Mar back in July. The cutback in distance may help, but I believe she wants turf. Could be dangerous if she can get an easy lead early. #5 Cheap Cheap Cheap will be tough to beat if her turf form can transfer to dirt, but I have my doubts. The layoff concerns me as well, but she will be sent hard early and the distance shouldn’t be a problem.
Race 3: 2YO G2 Chandelier 200k[F] – 1 1/16M Dirt
Pace Prediction: Fast
Selections: #1 Princess Noor 2-5, #4 Illumination 6-1, #3 Varda
If #1 Princess Noor loses this race I will be shocked. I will be singling in all multi race tickets. I will include #4 Illumination and #3 Varda underneath as they seem like they still have room for improvement. The #5 switching from turf to dirt concerns me, and I think we know what the #2 Make Mischief is at this point. She would need to improve quiet a bit to beat Princess Noor here.
Race 4: 3YO+ MD 20000 – 1M Dirt
Pace Prediction: Moderate
Selections: #5 Question Authority 6-1, #3 Babael 7-2, #9 Kazansky 4-1
Another wide-open race so I would tread lightly here. #5 Question Authority drops down from the Md 50k level and stretches out to a mile. Andrew Lerner does well second time out (26%) and has had success switching from sprints to routes. Question Authority earned a respectable 52 Beyer on debut and attracts top jockey Flavien Prat. I expect a good jump in improvement here. #3 Babael ran well enough sprinting at Del Mar and closed for fourth, but ultimately the race was likely a bit short. He stretches back out to a mile where he ran his best race and just lost by a neck at the Md 40k level. Not worth playing at a short price but should not be counted out either. #9 Kazansky makes his fourth career start routing at 1M, and he has hit the board 2/3 times doing so. He gets a jockey upgrade to Rispoli and could find himself as the pace setter in a race lacking speed. I will leave underneath as he has not won in all 3 of his attempts at this level, and the competition may be too tough.
Race 5: 2YO Speakeasy 100k – 5.5F Turf
Pace Prediction: N/A – FTS
Selections: #2 No Pedigree 6-1, #4 Commander Khai 3-1, #5 Amanzi Yimpilo (Ire) 7-2
We have a couple of first-time starters in this listed stake for 2YOs, and I will take a shot with one of them. #2 No Pedigree has a few positive angles in play for trainer Doug O’Neill. First, he was purchased for 185k and this was 37x his stud fee (suggests there is some talent here). He recently had an impressive bullet workout at Saratoga running 5F in 58.3s. Sire is a G2 winner and wins 14% and the confidence in placing No Pedigree here is enough for me to put on top. Underneath both #4 Commander Khai and #5 Amanzi Yimpilo (Ire) look to improve in the third start of their careers. Both horses have the same last out Beyer and have both won turf sprints already. Hard to separate these two, and they will likely be dueling for the lead most of the way.
Race 6: 3YO+ OC 62k/N2X – 1M Dirt
Pace Prediction: Lone Speed/Moderate
Selections: #6 Kershaw 7-2, #7 Shortlist 4-1, #8 Dr. Troutman 8-1
People will likely be on the #4, who ran an impressive race off a long layoff sprinting 6.5F at Del Mar. I won’t be surprised if he wins, but 5-2 is too short of a price, and John Shirreff’s is 0/3 on second starts off layoffs over 180 days. #6 Kershaw is my choice to upset the favorite here as he is 7:2-1-2 at Santa Anita and loves the 1M distance. He can certainly wire the field, but he also has the option to stalk the pace as well. Slight jockey upgrade to Umberto Rispoli should help as well. #7 Shortlist steps up in class, but certainly seems to fit at the level here. Last out winner at this distance despite being bumped twice at the break. Consistent runner and his hard to poke holes at this entry. An interesting longshot play I will be using is the #8 Dr. Troutman who will likely be the lone speed of this race. A decent turf router who has raced in the company of some good horses such as United (entered in the G2 John Henry later today). He showed he can handle the dirt going longer and only lost by 2 lengths last out. Slight cutback should help, and it could be game over if he finds himself on an uncontested lead. However, some decent improvement is likely needed here if the race doesn’t unfold his way.
Race 7: 3YO G1 Rodeo Drive 300k [F] – 1 1/4M Turf
Pace Prediction: Slow
Selections: #6 Lady Prancealot (Ire) 2-1, #1 Tonahutu (Ire), #2 Maxim Rate 4-1
A long turf route and a race that does not have any pace. Normally I would play someone who is the lone speed in this scenario, but since there is no clear pace setter, I landed on #6 Lady Prancealot (Ire) as she won her only other start at this distance. I am hoping Rispoli keeps her a bit closer to the front in the beginning, and she should have no problem closing late. The rail draw #1 Tonahutu (Ire) I will use next as this is my best guess as to who will be out front early. I believe this race is way to far for her, but a slow pace will leave her in the mix. Rispoli hops off #2 Maxim Rate to ride the #6, but Maxim looks like the next logical choice to set the pace. She had a nice pressing trip going 1 3/8M and won, so hopefully that last 1/8M will not cause too much trouble. Recent bullet work out shows she has some quickness as well.
Race 8: 2YO G1 American Pharoah 300k – 1 1/16M Dirt
Pace Prediction: Lone Speed / Moderate
Selections: #5 Spielberg 3-1, #4 Notable Exception 7-2, #6 Get Her Number 7-2
#2 Spielberg will shoot to win this race going wire to wire. Trainer Bob Baffert gets Luis Saez for today’s race, and Saez will most certainly send Spielberg from the start. He is bred to handle the distance, and he was clearly second best last out in the Del Mar Futurity. #4 Notable Exception is confidently hiked up in class from MSW 32k ranks to the G1 level. He crushed his competition at Arlington Park while running on Synthetic and should be able to stalk the #2 if he doesn’t fire. A tougher spot here and will need to improve, but recent bullet workout suggests improvement could be likely. #6 Get Her Number has one more race under his belt, but he arguably looks very similar to the #4. I will leave underneath of his prior two starts were on turf, and I would rather play horses have experience running on the dirt here.
Race 9: 3YO+ G2 John Henry Turf Championship 200k – 1 1/4M Turf
Pace Prediction: Moderate/Slow
Selections: #3 United 6-5, Next Shares 9-2, #2 Originaire (Ire) 7-2
#3 United absolutely loves Santa Anita 8:3-2-1 and this distance 4:2-1-1. He has tactical speed to win multiple ways, and Flavien Prat sticks around as this pair already has three G2 turf route wins (two of which came at today’s distance). United knows how to win, and I will likely single on horizontal tickets. #7 Next Shares has a backlog of races that would make him competitive here, but the added distance may be too much. He gets the jockey upgrade to Luis Saez, and he has certainly been in tougher spots before. There is not a ton of pace, but I will expect Saez to pick up some of the pieces late if Next Shares likes the added distance. #2 Originaire has only tried this distance once before, and she ran second via DQ to United. I think 1 1/8M is the farthest he wants to go, and the pace scenario doesn’t help him either. Originaire is a good horse, but I think United is simply better.
Race 10: 3YO+ G1 Awesome Again 300k – 1 1/8M Dirt
Pace Prediction: Fast/Contentious
Selections: #5 Maximum Security 3-5, #2 Improbable 8-5, #3 Sleepy Eyes Todd 12-1
#1 Maximum Security returns to California for another G1 race, and he is simply better than the competition. Another single if using horizontals. He reunites with Saez and has the capability to wire or stalk the pace. Max just has a nose for the wire. We know what #4 Midcourt is at this point and the #1 Take the One O One is clearly overmatched. The other Bob Baffert #2 Improbable will likely run second here if he can repeat his performance in the G1 Whitney at Saratoga. This could be an exciting duel if Max and Improbable link up early. Underneath I like #3 Sleepy Eyes Todd at a price. He won easily in the G2 Charles Town Classic at this distance against weaker competition. The track did favor closers that day and Sleepy Eyes Todd wired the field. That last race could be a bit better than looked.
Race 11: 2YO Md Sp Wt 55k [S] – 1M Turf
Pace Prediction: Moderate
Selections: #8 Warrens Candy Man 15-1, #10 Theluteismine 5-2, #2 Ingest 9-5
To end the day, we have a 2YO MSW going 1M on the turf, and this race contains a few first time starts and some lightly raced horses. To me, this race screams for me to take a price and I ultimately landed on #8 Warrens Candy Man. Andrew Lerner horses usually need a race and he wins 35% of the time when his horses make their maiden second start. Additionally, he a 20% winner on turf, routing, and off layoffs of 31-60 days. Warrens Candy Man already has experience on the turf and at the distance which is also a bonus. Finally, his sister 3 unlisted stakes and a MSW 62k routing 1 mile on the turf as a two-year-old. I would expect a big jump in improvement here. #10 Theluteismine makes his first start for trainer Peter Miller, who wins 20% of first-time races. I would not be surprised if this horse won, but I am not taking a short price on an unraced horse going 1M on the turf from the outside post first time out. #2 Ingest is certainly the horse to beat in this race, but again he doesn’t stand out a ton to me to warrant paying the 9-5 morning line price on him.