Key Stat Watch
Hot Jockey: Flavien Prat has won his last 7 for 24 starts (29%).
Cold Jockey: Drayden Van Dyke has won his last 1 for 15 starts (7%).
Hot Trainer: Bob Baffert has won his last 4 for 13 starts (31%).
Cold Trainer: Doug O’Neil and Richard Baltas are 1 for 16, and 1 for 15 respectively. (~7%).
Weather: 99 Degrees Sunny. Expect fast/firm.
Race 1: 3YO+ Alw 50000s [F]– 1M Turf
Pace Prediction: Moderate
Selections: #1 Freedom Lass 3-1, #7 Lavender (Ire) 5-2, #4 Star of Africa 4-1
#1 Freedom Lass had an awkward break last out going 1/16th longer, and likely could have won that race if she did not have to play catch up from the start. Looks like the speed in the race, and the cutback in distance should help. Improved her Beyer by 6 last out, and I would expect that trend to continue here. #7 Lavender (Ire) may not have enough pace to close into, but she has the speed figures to compete here. This will be her first start for trainer Peter Miller and jockey Flavien Prat who connect 33% of the time. Must include. #4 Star of Africa exits the same race as Freedom Lass, land lost by less than a length for second. The added distance definitely helped her, and as she is cutting back today, I will leave underneath.
Race 2: 3YO+ Clm 16000 [F] – 6.5F Dirt
Pace Prediction: Slow
Selections: #2 Carrie’s Success 2-1, #4 Madame Barbarian 9-5, #3 Super Klaus 5-2
Not a great betting race as many of the horses in this field look the same, and there is a surprising lack of pace for a 6.5F sprint. #2 Carrie’s Success gets the nod as she drops from the 34k N1X levels where she ran fourth off a wide trip for trainer Jonathan Wong. She should find this field a bit softer and is coming off a bit over a 2-month layoff, and Wong excels returning horses from layoffs of this timeframe (79 starts, 27% win). The 2 post should help her save ground here. #4 Madame Barbarian looks to be in the best form of the group but will likely face a wide trip. She seems to do her best work closing, but the lack of pace to close into here is concerning. #3 Super Klaus drops from the OC 40k/N1X level and returns from a huge 7-month layoff. I like that Prat gets the mount, but the layoff is concerning so I will leave underneath. Side note: The #1 Sturdy One is clearly the fastest early horse in the race and has encountered a track that heavily favored closers in her last two starts. I think the competition may be a bit much here, but if Tyler Baze can have her loose on the lead, she has a shot at a price in a race lacking value.
Race 3: 3YO+ Swingtime Stakes 70k[R] – 1M Turf
Pace Prediction: Lone Speed
Selections: #4 Cordiality 5-2, #2 Muchly 5-1, #3 Sedamar 5-1
#4 Cordiality has been running well in listed stake competition and will sent hard early for the lead. Her best plan of attack is to wire the field, and I am not sure anyone catches her here. She is tied for the highest Beyer figure in the field, and loves both Santa Anita and this distance. #2 Muchly (GB) makes the jump from the OC40k/N1X levels to listed stakes, and she has done nothing but improve YTD. Theis field is certainly tougher, but things are clicking for this four-year old filly and she should hit the board at a price. #3 Sedamar is the next likely winner if Cordiality falters. She will need to apply pressure early, but I am not sure she is fast enough to do so.
Race 4: 3YO+ Clm 25000N2 [F] – 6F Dirt
Pace Prediction: Fast
Selections: #5 Malibu Cat 9-5, #3 Saints Paynter 2-1, #1 Rain Diva 5-2
A lackluster dirt sprint with a field of only 5 horses. #5 Malibu Cat gets the nod as she drops in class and trainer Mark Glatt wins 36% of the time with horses dropping for a tag that is 50% less than their prior start. Workouts are respectable and I can’t complain with Prat riding. She should sit a nice stalking trip. #3 Saints Paynter also drops and will likely duel with the 1 for the lead. Andrew Lerner does exceptionally well switching horses from turf to dirt (30%) and this four year old filly has already proved that she can handle the surface. #1 Rain Diva also makes the switch back to dirt for trainer Mark Glatt (26%). The distance may be a bit much, but she will likely be more involved in this race than the two and four.
Race 5: 3YO+ Clm 20000(20-18)N3L– 6F Dirt
Pace Prediction: Fast
Selections: #2 Truth Seeker 5-2, #6 Big Barrel 4-1, #3 Octopus 2-1
#2 Truth Seeker has been racing the best and drops in from the claiming 32k level. He obtained a decent Beyer sprinting on the turf in that race despite a bad break at the start. One of his only two wins came at this surface and distance, and he should get a decent trip behind the speed up front to close into. #6 Big Barrel will press the pace and look to make a wide move on the turn, but the distance may be a bit short. #3 Octopus just missed almost wiring the field at this level at Del Mar in September on a track that favored closers. The slight cutback should help, however I the 1 and 5 will not let him get the lead without a fight. Should be the strongest of the speed, but I would expect Octopus to fade slightly.
Race 6: 3YO+ OC 20k/N1X [S] – 1M Turf
Pace Prediction: Moderate
Selections: #6 Sea of Liberty 7-2, #8 Doc Tommy 3-1, #2 Table for Ten 4-1
#6 Sea of Liberty exits a 1 1/16M turf route at this level and earned his career best Beyer of 85 (best in field). The winner and runner up both returned to run Beyer figures that would easily dominate this field. Sea of Liberty strung together a set of impressive workouts for John Sadler and will likely sit a perfect trip off the pace. #8 Doc Tommy is the other Sadler entry and is certainly a player. Prat hops off this horse to ride the #2 Table for Ten which is concerning for Doc Tommy. I am not sure if the outside post position will help Doc here. I am including Table for Ten as Prat choses to stick with him as he faces winners for the first time. Doc Tommy looks like the better horse on paper, but Prat must see something he likes on Table for Ten for him to leave. He will have work to do, but I can see him picking up some pieces late.
Race 7: 2YO Md Sp Wt 55k – 5.5F Dirt
Pace Prediction: N/A – FTS
Selections: #7 Laurel River 5-2, #5 Nasreddine 4-1, #6 Namesake 5-1
The #7 Laurel River presents an interesting angle in the first maiden special of the day. This colt is bred and owned by Juddmonte Farms, and Juddmonte tends to hold onto their horses that they think have talent. Sire Into Mischief wins 16% of 2YO debuts, and 17% of dirt sprints. Trainer Bob Baffert is also 30% when debuting. Workouts look good and if Juddmonte is right, this could be one of the higher prices we get this horse at. #5 Nasreddine is an expensive purchase as she went for 9x the stud fee, and sire Nyquist wins 15% of his first-time starter races. Workouts look good, and it is hard to ignore that Prat gets the mount. Additionally, this is a filly vs. the boys which a bold placement here. Must think that the connections believe they have a decent shot here. Have to include the other Baffert entry, #6 Namesake, owned by Gary and Mary West. I think Laurel has best shot of winning, but you must figure that if the other Baffert does not fire, then this one might at a price (Baffert 30% FTS).
Race 8: 3YO+ G2 City of Hope Mile 200k – 1M Turf
Pace Prediction: Fast
Selections: #7 Mo Forza 8-5, #1 Sharp Samurai 5-2, #4 Royal Ship (Brz) 4-1
#7 Mo Forza looked impressive winning the G2 Del Mar Mile by four lengths and earned a career best Beyer of 101. He is a mile specialist and Prat sticks around for trainer Peter Miller who win at a formidable 33%. I like the post draw as he should have enough pace to close into. Honestly it is hard for me to poke holes on this one, and I will likely single here if playing multi race tickets. #1 Sharp Samurai did not disgrace trying dirt for the first time since early on in his 2YO career. He ran second to Maximum Security in the Pacific Classic and looked good doing so. He won this race in 2018, and I would not be surprised if he wins again. Switch back to his preferred surface should help, but he will face same pace pressure early. #4 Royal Ship made his US debut running third in the Del Mar Mile, and he should be closing late to pick up the pieces. Has a shot if the pace is hotter than anticipated.
Race 9: 3YOClm 16000(16-14)N2L – 1M Dirt
Pace Prediction: Fast
Selections: #5 Bam Bam Again 5-2, #2 Debt Monger 3-1, #4 Next Revolt 3-1
#5 Bam Bam Again just missed at this level, and I think he is worth giving one more chance here. Worked an impressive bullet workout of 6F in 1:12.3. Should sit just off the pace, and hopefully he has enough in the tank this time to put the field away. The pace could be rather contested, so I like class dropper #2 Debt Monger to stalk here. Has been off since August, but he looked good running at the level back in July at Del Mar. #4 Next Revolt will run first of the claim for Tim Yakteen, and lures Prat for the ride. Took a lot of money last out so there are some expectations here with this one. Worth one more shot.
Race 10: 2YO Md Sp Wt 55k – 1M Turf
Pace Prediction: N/A – FTS
Selections: #9 Miss Peaky Blinder 3-1, #6 Pizzazz 7-2, #7 Sweetest Angel 4-1,
I am choosing to go with experience here and #9 Miss Peaky Blinder fits the bill as she looked decent enough in her first attempt at the distance. If you can’t tell by now, I like to play Prat at Santa Anita, and he gets the call here for trainer Neil Drysdale, and they win at a 19% clip. Earned an impressive 57 Beyer on debut and I would expect some decent improvement here. #6 Pizzazz just missed winning her debut going 5F on turf, and Mike Smith sticks around for her attempt at routing. I like that she has been working at 6F and she should appreciate the added distance. Finally, the last who stood out to me is the #7 Sweetest Angel who drops down from listed stakes company. Clearly the connections think she is talented as they entered her into a stakes race for her second start.