It is a pleasure to be once again writing to my horse community. I hope you missed me as much as I missed you guys. Let’s cash some tickets together. Please check my twitter handle @jailmovemaster for updated picks and analysis once scratches are announced and in case we do not have a fast and firm track.
I always love talking horses and handicapping angles and always make sure to keep horseplayers informed with up to minute info at NYRA. Good luck!
Race 1- 1-10-7
#1- Big Muddy – He has the perfect name for a horse that is running in a race that came off the turf. He has disappointed in all 3 career starts but had some excuses in each. His first race out was sprinting in the mud which he wanted no part of. In race 2 he ran into an eventual Graded Stakes winner in Point to Remember on a speed favoring track. He ran into another bias track last time out. Today should be his maiden score.
#10- Ding Dong Ditch- In the event that my top pick is a chandelier, this is your most likely winner. His lone effort on the dirt was a good looking one and should be closer to the lead than my top pick. He has burned plenty of money but this is the softest field he will find.
#7- Wicked Trick – His lone effort on dirt was in the Grade 3 Spinaway so the connections thought enough of him at one point. Hard to like a 0 for 11 horse but figures to be alone on the lead. That alone makes him dangerous on this circuit
Race 2- 3-4-5
#3- Stan The Man – He had to be the unluckiest horse to start the year running as a maiden to the likes of Switzerland, Presevationist and Tommy T. I love the slight cutback and the return to this track for Stan. I think he gets it done here as long as the track is fair. He should sit right off of Barahin and put in his winning move around the turn. Let’s get em with my single in the P5 at a price.
4- Barahin- The aforementioned ML favorite should be able to have things his own way with no other speed signed on. He will be stretching out a bit for his first attempt against winners and it is hard to back any favorite when they are attempting to do something for the first time. I respect him but will offer no value.
#5- Have Another- If you dig enough through his form you will see that the 7f, one turn race is exactly what he wants to do. If there was more speed in the race I would make him my top pick but I am worry he will not get the pace he needs for his big closing kick.
Race 3- 5-8-2
#5- Pollo – He exits the same race as my 2nd choice, who finished behind but I think he ran the better race last time out. If you watch the replay Pollo went for the lead and was contested the entire way while on the rail. Unless one of the first timers has early zip, I think this horse can find himself alone on the lead.
#8- Eliav- He adds the hood for trainer Rudy Rodriguez and sometimes in a race this bad, a small change is all that is needed. It is not a good sign that they paid 70k for him and was willing to let him go for 25k first time out.
#2- Catch Me If u Can- He will be the heavy favorite going first time out for trainer Robert Diodoro but I never like to back his horses when he is dropping them in class. This is especially true when dropping them off the claim.
Race 4- 7-8-4
#7- A Thread of Blue- This is an ultra tough running of the Awad. I landed on this horse as my top pick for a few reasons. The first is we get the Mile Master aboard. I still have no explanation for it but Junior Alvarado just knows how to ride this Mile distance perfectly. The other major reason is that this horse only lost by a few lengths to Current who ran great on Friday at Churchill. He obviously does not mind a little give in the ground and should get a better trip here than his lone turf effort. Looks primed to run big here.
#8- Empire of War- It has been a weird year for Pletcher as his turf 2yo runners have actually fared better than his dirt runners. He broke his maiden last time out after wiring a field of 11. I am a little concerned that they tried him out on dirt first but maybe this son of Declaration of War has found his home.
#4- Order and Law- If you want to see a strong finishing kick watch this horse break his maiden last time out where he circled the entire field in the last quarter. It was ultra impressive but will now be asked to stretch out. Dangerous.
Race 5- 4-7-10
#4- Fear – I am married to my Jail Move here at 8-1. I hate the inside post on the turf sprint but I am married to my jail move. The horse might be better on synthetic but I am married to my jail move. The horse should like a little give on the ground which is good because……I am married to my jail move.
#7- Dowse’s Beach- This is an important race for us to watch because Jason Servis’ horses run in patterns. If this horse romps then you can beat every Jason Servis horse for the next couple of weeks with confidence. If he does not run well you will be able to chuck a lot of future chalk out. He will be contesting which looks like a fast pace and for that reason I think he is vulnerable.
#10- Vici- He is the most likely to win this race if the pace does heat up. I do question if he likes give on the ground but I love the talent and the outside post in this 6f sprint.
Race 6- 4-6-1
I don’t have much to say in this race other than I want a first time starter. The 4 looks like the most likely to have some talent.
Race 7- 5-4-3
I think that Steve Klesaris finally found out what Enthusiastic Gal likes to do and that is sprinting on the turf. He attracts Lezcano to ride who in my opinion is the most underrated turf rider in the country.
Race 8- 6-5-4
Race 9- 15-12-10