Came through last week with a $1k score on a $72 ticket for the Early Pick 5, as I said, I was due. Another good card impacted by weather, as mandatory pick 6 payout day at Santa Anita will be done with all races over a sealed track. On days like this, you need to adjust and understand how these conditions create new angles to look at to hone in on value. For me, there are a handful of areas that I will give a bump to in terms of weight in my handicapping.
- Early Speed- Timeform Early Pace number being a key one here. It’s no secret the sealed track favors this speed so jocks and trainers will make adjustments, so the other thing to look for on top of early speed are horses who have experience dueling and have shown to be game.
- Tomlinson Figure- Now, not all off tracks are made equal, so careful not to put too much weight here, but certainly worth giving more attention to today.
- Weight Allowance- Apprentice jocks, especially ones who are strong early speed types (Asa and H.Fig) will be on the radar today as this break for the horse over these conditions is favorable.
- Golden Rail? We will need to wait and see, but often a sealed track will also create this at SA favoring those horses that get to the inside down the stretch.
With all races on the main track, it will be important to see how the first few races unfold before you finalize your P6 ticket. Enough about that though, on to the card….
Early Pick 5: 1,3,5 / 2,6/ 3,5,6/ 1,5,7/ 1,5,8 ($81)
Race 1: (3-1-5) Top pick, #3 Raul Rosas made his comeback off a near 18 month layoff on January 4th where Joe made a nice move around the turn despite being wide throughout and it looked like he would challenge but quickly faded. Joe wrapped him up and since has had three strong works and appears tighter and fitter for this 2nd off the layoff opportunity. Should be on or near the lead and Talamo with a 32% win rate on off-tracks. The concern here, is the low Tomlinson fig and Thorn Song babies with only a 9% off track win rate, so proceed with caution. #1 Red Envelope is another with good early foot and is coming off his maiden win, where he did it in impressive fashion being 5 wide the entire time and pulled away with ease. Has run from the 1 hole previous and dueled impressively despite being edged by a nose. If you cross out the Turf route, this horse has hit the board each time he has run. DVD on board (not great off-track #’s) but horse with a respectable 364 Tomlinson fig. #5 Cyclometric gets Asa and the weight break here to 119.5 lbs. The horse won his debut carrying 120 lbs, before fading in his second race carrying 124. Lacks the early foot, but is lightly raced. Strong 387 Tomlinson fig and Cyclotron babies with a 23% off track win rate. Last out thorograph fig of a 7 fits amongst this group, and with expected improvement should be a contender. Playing against Nap Jolie, as thorograph figs are weaker than most of this field and I am concerned with the comments of “rank” and “washy” in past lines under todays conditions. Vulnerable fav.
Race 2: (2-6-3) I am hoping people see the 0-3 on wet surface for #2 Denman’s Call and avoid, as I really like him here today. Has been flashing very fast works and I like this claim from Glatt last out as this gelding appears to have plenty left. The last wet try was with stakes company and the previous in the OC40k against stakes types. Tomlinson fig is strong and although I do not love Bejarano on front end speed, which I would hope for today, if he is sitting right off the pace he has plenty of class to win this. Bejarano also 35% win rate on off tracks. #6 Stonehands sees the big drop in class and his first race at the claiming level. Last race in October was an absolute dud in his debut for Sadler, but beware of Sadler second off the claim, always dangerous. If Stonehands returns to previous form, he certainly is major threat, and the outside position could force Rosario to be on or near the lead today, right where we want to be in these conditions.
Race 3: (6-5-3) Give me the 10 year old vet in #6 Muchos Besos who drops down to the $16k claiming level where he was competing well in the 20-32k levels last year with a few wins. Horse has success over off tracks so should take some money here and his 432 Tomlinson fig jumps off the page. Would expect Tyler to have him involved early and in the clear to reverse his current figs. #5 Bedeviled is 2nd off the layoff (0-13 w/ Glatt) but gets Figueroa again and the weight break. If there is a pace duel, and he is not too far back in these conditions, it could set up well for him. #3 Pioneer of the West jumps up in the claiming ranks off a win over a wet track with an impressive 6 Thorograph fig. Things will be tougher today with speed on both sides of him in the gate, leaving it likely he will see some kickback where last out he was in the clear.
Race 4: (1-7-5) #1 No Wine Untasted is fast, and should get a clear lead in this one and wouldn’t be surprised to see the first 1/2M at sub 44. Conditions set up well for this horse today. I wish her Tomlinson fig were stronger (320) as it will be her first attempt in the slop. #7 Tiz Toffee is the next speed if NWU gets off slow or does not like the mud. Despite getting the weight break with Asa on board, the 117.5 is the most this horse has carried in the last 5 races. D’Amato with two in here, I prefer the outside with the #6 making a start off a 20 month layoff against some serious speed here. If the race ends up meting down up front, would add #5 Tyfosha as protection. Her 409 Tomlinson fig is nice, and the horse has always been running against stiff competition. This may be the weakest field she has caught in some time.
Race 5: (8-5-2-1) The favorite in here #5 Omaha Beach looks awfully tough, as he comes in off three straight 2nds against some strong 2YO’s and now cuts back to 7F. Works for this horse have been great, with an A- work in December followed by 2 B+ January works. I will put the #8 One Bad Boy on top though, this half to Ms. Bad Behavior was steadied in debut but finished strong up for 3rd. A 417 Tomlinson fig and Rosario on board are both positives, as well as the extra half furlong. I am throwing in a first time starter with the #1 Polar, who is an exciting prospect for Eclipse TB and Michael McCarthy $$2.09 ROI on 1sters) who has also been working well. Graydar babies hitting at 19% on off tracks.