It’s opening day at Belmont Park for the fall meet! 10 races on today’s card and the feature is a 1 ½ mile dirt stakes race. Best of luck if you’re playing along and as always follow me on twitter @cjfelts87; first post is at 1:00pm est.
Daily Gallop stats: Total: 367-94-70-74 (25% win, 64% ITM)
Race 1 MSW 63k fillies 2 years old, 6 furlongs
Selections: 5-3-1-2
Top Pick: #5 Treasure Lane is a first time starter for Shug McGaughey, solid string of workouts and his sire Quality Road is 13% with first time starters. Johnny V will be the pilot today, over the past year these two have teamed up to hit at 18%. 5-1 ML.
Next up: #3 Jade Empress is the only one in here with experience, certainly can improve off that debut effort and finds a similar field to run in today.
Race 2 CLM 32k 3yo, 1 mile turf
Selections: 9-2-1-7
Top Pick: #9 Zipalong drops in from stakes company after a decent effort and I think the drop makes sense here, broke his maiden against mcl 40k over this Belmont surface and should be competitive with improvement today. Getting a nice 9-2 ML.
Next up: #2 Doubly Blessed is eligible to improve second off the layoff today, this is a slight step up the class ladder from the N2L condition but gets Saez today and should be coming late.
Race 3 CLM 14k N3L F&M 3up, 6 furlongs
Selections: 5-1/1A-4
Top Pick: #5 Miss Liana makes a lot of sense in here as she ships over from Monmouth, 2 solid seconds against beaten claimers there and in both races a horse named Bramble Berry was the runaway winner. Now finds her a nice spot to run in here and I like that speed jock Carmouche is getting the call today as she should be on the front end.
Next up: The #1/1A entry is very logical in this spot, #1 Cape Cod Diva hoping for a form reversal getting a drop in class, and #1A Ruvies in Time is also facing the same situation, both trained by Richard Schosberg.
Race 4 Miners Mark Stakes 3up, 1 ½ miles
Selections: 1-2-3
Top Pick: #1 You’re to Blame is the likely favorite here after finishing second to the talented Moretti last time out in the Birdstone at Saratoga, now Johnny V keeps the mount at a distance she has won at going for her first win of 2020.
Next up: #2 Counter Offer is interesting to me as he switches from turf to dirt, certainly can go this long on turf and the connections are taking the chance that he can translate that to dirt, Castellano gets the mount and he could be a price.
Race 5 MCL 25k state bred F&M 3up, 7 furlongs
Selections: 8-1/1A-7-2
Top Pick: #8 Madam Deputy appears to be an overlay at 8-1 ML, her last race you can toss since it was in the slop, so judging off her debut if she can improve with the drop in class she will be more than competitive against this group. Javier Castellano gets back on for Rudy Rodriguez and they’re taking the blinkers off so trying new things.
Next up: I like the latter of the entry in #1A Mebs Web here, improving off the layoff at this level for Nick Zito and Eric Cancel stays aboard. 4-1 ML.
Race 6 MSW 63k 2yo, 1 mile turf
Selections: 7-4-3
Top Pick: #7 Scarlett Sky is a solid play at anything at or above even money, his debut beyer of 73 is better than today’s par of 72 and that was against tougher, now with that experience Johnny V again getting the mount for Shug McGaughey he is an easy winner today save a terrible ride or trip.
Next up: #4 McLovin is quite interesting at 6-1 ML, Castellano leaves the #3 Honorable to ride this first time starter for Graham Motion, has been training quite well over a synthetic training surface which usually translates well to grass, Animal Kingdom is 12% with first time starters and 15% as an overall turf sire.
Race 7 CLM 40k N2L 3up, 6 furlongs turf
Selections: 8-1-12-7
Top Pick: #8 Red Mule ran a strong last race at this level last month at Saratoga, now gets another try as Junior Alvarado hops on for Rob Atras; when they team up they hit at a 30% clip. The beyer came back strong and I expect another strong outing from him as he goes a little longer.
Next up: #1 Threepointninenine is a lightly raced but improving 3 year old gelding for Thomas Morley, takes a try at the N2L level after breaking his maiden last out.
Race 8 AOC 40k n2x state bred F&M 3up, 6.5 furlongs
Selections: 3-1-6-4
Top Pick: #3 Good Credence had a good try at this level last time out and now gets another try, competitive beyer that makes him a threat here and Junior Alvarado stays aboard. Look for her to be on the front end early on.
Next up: #1 Letmetakethiscall stays at this level after a nice win last time, first off the claim for James Ferraro, Dylan Davis has been on this horse before and he is 4 for 4 at the distance.
Race 9 ALW 65k n1x F&M 3up, 1 1/16 miles turf
Selections: 2-8-1
Top Pick: #2 Mary’s France is a french invader who ships here for Graham Motion in a logical spot and he does quite well with North American imports- 28% and a $2.59 ROI. Also has a positive ROI with 1st time lasix.
Next up: #8 Lashara has been running quite well at this level with 2 seconds so she’s been knocking at the door and today could be the day for this improving American Pharoah filly. Likes to sit close to the pace.
Race 10 MCL 40k state bred 3up, 1 1/16 miles turf
Selections: 7-12-9-8
Top Pick: #7 Selfmade looks pretty good at 5-1 ML, if you toss the last race in the mud he’s in good form running at this level and just looking for a spot to break through. Alvarado stays aboard for Bill Mott.
Next up: #12 Nero’s Fiddle is an improving 4 year old who just missed at this level last time out, looks to improve again as Dylan Davis gets the call.