Early Pick 5 Suggested Wager: 6,8,9/ 7,8/1,5,7,12/4,5/ 3,4,7 ($72)
My debut here on TDG, excited to contribute and hoping to cash winners. I have focused in on the early pick 5 this week, my favorite wager when it comes to Santa Anita. Best of luck all and feel free to connect @rmccarthy1
Race 1 (8-6-9): The December 1st race at Del Mar that #4 Hello Bubbles and #8 My Sweet Baboo come out of was an interesting one, with 2nd and 3rd quarter fractions both at a crawl of 25 seconds. Winner sat the perfect trip and won by daylight, but watch the finish by both of these horses in this race today as for a moment I thought I was watching it on fast forward with Hello Bubbles (the 10 in that race) push button burst when hitting the stretch. Now, yes, at the slow early fractions any good horse should have impressive burst left, but it left me digging further into each of these to separate them. As much as I liked what I saw on Hello Bubbles, I have concerns about him getting the extra furlong here with bloodline very sprint heavy. My Sweet Baboo has 4 sibs with with Thorograph figures below 10 in route races and is the daughter of Candy Ride, distance won’t be an issue and despite a dirt heavy pedigree, Callahan has stuck with her on the grass. The biggest risk to My Sweet Baboo here is a repeat of the previous race we discussed at the top, where it is paceless and he has nothing to run at. Curious to see if the #9, also trained by Callahan is sent to the lead (likely due to sprint heavy pedigree, working fast in the mornings, and outside post) to give Baboo something to run at. #1 and #6 also have a chance to be the pace setters here but have some trends to conquer as #1’s sire, Mucho Macho Man has begun his sire career 1-22 on Turf. #6’s young and promising trainer, Anna Meah has begun her career 0-11, albeit competitive with 5 ITM. With #6 Fashion Island stronger pedigree, likely improvement in 2nd career race, and recent string of 5 encouraging workouts since last race, I recommend over the #1. Eating Chalk to begin the card 6,8 on my horizontal plays, but don’t be afraid to mix in the 9 at a price.
Race 2 (7,8,5): This is where it gets fun as I see two vulnerable favorites. ML second choice, #4 Blame Joe is an auto-toss. Forget the obvious declining figures, look at the conditions he was running in (50k allowances) before a sharp drop to $12k Claimers after a dud in the last allowance. Why a drop to $12k when he won by 10+ in a Md. $20k at SA just four months earlier? Horse is not working like a Miller horse, and has a price tag of only $10.5k this race just 4 months removed from running an 80 beyer and 7 TG fig. Not using Blame Joe on any of my tickets. #3 Facts Matter, another taking a drop here after an underwhelming string of performances vs. better. Never like to see consistency in the trip notes of “weakening” in a pace that is shaping up with lots of early speed. With the connections, horse will be bet and IMO will not offer any value. #7 June Two Four adds blinkers for a trainer that has a $3.88 ROI this year when using this change. The story makes sense here too, look at this horses win in October, on the lead with early pace. The race prior, the horses second best figures also pressed the pace. After trying out the saving ground tactic the past 2 races, look for him to be more competitive early. Unfortunately, there appears to be a good amount of pace in here with #2 Celebration of Life, and #6 Optimum both likely to look for the early lead and both that may struggle getting to 6.5F unchallenged, I see them folding up on the turn. The same could be said about #8 California Clone, but I like the outside post and pedigree figs more than the others, and the December effort off the short layoff was impressive on the lead at LRC. If he improves off that effort, he is well clear of 2 and 6.
Race 3(5-1-12): A full field of 2 YO Cal Breds Maidens fillies with a 50k tag. This is a good type of race to spread on horizontally unless you are taking the contrarian approach. For me, I don’t see a standout but here are the ones I will be playing. #5 Meritocracy, ran this condition at an extra half furlong his first and only time out. Trainer with +ROI with 2YO’s second time out and you got to love sire’s 38% win rate, all 2YO’s on dirt sprints. Also +ROI with Jockey/Trainer connection this year. Expecting improvement in this his 2nd race on a slight cutback. #1 Twirling Diamonds drops from MSW to Md CLM and picks up Talamo who is best in dirt sprints. Sire is 18% with 2YO’s and could get out easy from the 1 hole with very little early speed to the 5 horses next to her. # 7 Naomi Fraley, a rare dirt start for jockey Brice Blanc who does not have strong career dirt numbers, but I do like how the horse recovered from a poor start and finished strong in debut. Sibs TG figs show potential here and with a clean start should improve big. #12 Comegowithme likely the speed of the race and another MSW dropper, this trainer with strong results on the drop but terrible record at Santa Anita.
Playing 1,5 but will spread horizontally.
Suggested Exotics: Ex Box 1,5 – Trifecta 1,5/1,5,7,12/1,3,5,7,12
Race 4 (4-5-2) Can #4 Fahan Mura get the 1 1/8? Can Fahan get the elusive first graded stakes win? He is the favorite and I again like him. This horse has one trick, get to the lead and go as far as you can and in this pack I don’t see another horse putting any pressure on him. Will be up to Maldonado to allow him to get a big breath on the backstretch but no jockey knows him better. This is a good group of horses, but he has beaten better. Also happy to see many horses winning from on or close to the lead on the turf early in the meet. My other play will be #5 Sweet Charity, who ran off a long layoff in November and despite a very slow start finished full of run. 2nd off the layoff here, should be poised for a big improvement with a smooth start. If Fahan cant go wire to wire, or is dueled, this is the protection you will need as the green Hronis silks will be flying late.
Suggested Exotics: Daily Double 4,5/ 4,7 Trifecta: 4 / 2,5/ ALL and 4/ ALL/ 2,5
Race 5 (7-4-3) An $8k dirt sprint claiming race to end the sequence (and begin the pick 6). I like 2 horses that both have similar characteristics, cutting back in distance and like to be on or near the lead. Lets start with #7 Monterrey Shale. Gets a jock upgrade as Baze jumps back on and has won with the horse before. The one time the horse drew outside, it won by 8+ in a mile race here at SA. Note the recent bullet drill work. Too much upside to ignore, and overall well placed by Hanson. At 6-1 I will be on this horse. Also like #4 Papa Turf, the 5-2 ML fav. Won a $10k clm in October going 7F, then tried $20k at a mile with no success. So here we are, back again at a level he should be very competitive at with a good style that fits the jockey for this situation. Finally, we have another big dropper with #3 Boy Howdy much better figs than this level contains just this past summer before a sharp decline. Screams buyer beware, but a little more confident from recent works.