Race 1
10 – Hermaphrodite – returned from over a year off and ran a credible 5th at a similar level. Returns and gets Rosario. Seems likely to improve second start off this extended layoff.
11 – Shanghai Truffles – an obvious contender here given her turf routing efforts; she picks up Rispoli (over Hermaphrodite) and has displayed solid Beyers despite speed favoring surfaces. Big threat.
8 – Rocking Redhead – no telling what to make of this one, as she woke up on the lead last time and just kept going. She’ll have to fend off the early foot of Aunt Lubie this time and faces winners here; but that was certainly an impressive first time routing.
Race 2
2 – Affable – solid effort on debut, now gets additional ground to close into. Faced a well regarded runner in that effort and was no slouch himself. $600k purchase has every right to take another step forward today.
3 – Wipe The Slate – got wiped by a Baffert hotshot in debut, but then again, pretty much everyone would have finished the same way. Adds shades and jumped right back into a regular work pattern after the debut, so you must respect him also.
5 – Deservedly – two gate drills in a row prior to debut isn’t exactly encouraging; but the times in those efforts were. You figure if he was the top threat of the Glatt barn, he’d be the one with Prat on top, but Ricky Gonzalez is no slouch here. Worth a look.
Race 3
1 – Defense Wins – regressed a bit when he tried routing on turf last time, but gets significant class relief today. Obviously there are concerns in his poor prior routing efforts, but this is by far the weakest field he’s ever faced and retains a top pilot.
4 – Alvaaro – his dirt routes have been good enough to compete here, and he, like others, finds a new barn since his last effort. He finished behind Hapi Hapi in his last race, but I’m willing to give him a better look today first off the claim for Ryan Hanson.
9 – Bam Bam Again – to be fair, he’s never ran fast enough to threaten some of these. However, he’s another one returning to a level where he’s performed his best and gets a weight break with the hot riding apprentice Pyfer. Could certainly hit the board at a price.
Race 4
5 – Smooth Like Strait – simply put, he’s the best horse here and he’s finished in the exacta in 5 of his 6 starts this year. He owns a win over the track and has beaten every rival he’s faced today. He’s also 2 of 3 with Rispoli on him. The surest winner on the card today.
1 – Whisper Not – solid stateside bow last month, Baltas is 21% second off the layoff and he could certainly be a boost to that statistic in this spot. The other main rivals in here have class over him, but he could certainly take a step up to get to that level.
7 – Scarto – he’s an honest sort and always seems to give his best, but just ran up against a saltier bunch in his last and didn’t quite have it in the lane. His only two west coast wins were with Rispoli up, and he opts for the favorite, but obviously Prat is no slouch on the lawn either. Not without a chance.
Race 5
8 – Watchful Eye – rates the nod at a price in this wide open contest. Debut was a total toss, then came back to run a gutty third at a lower level up north. She ships south to run due to the lack of NorCal racing, but this is a soft field for her to make that move.
10 – Great Curves – takes significant class relief while retaining Baze, and draws comfortably outside. Could certainly take another step forward in a total scramble of a race.
11 – Warrens Memorable – fits here on speed figures and at least has hit the board in her racing career, which many others here have not. She’s ran well since switching to the weight break of the apprentice Centeno, and comes back off a minor freshening. Would not be a surprise.
Race 6
12 – Anaconda – looks to have a grip over these from the outside. He shortens back to a sprint after fading late in his most recent route try, but his debut at 5f was sparkling. He should have plenty more room to improve unlike some of the others here, who seem to have already leveled out.
1 – Tripoli – tough call on this guy, shortening up after five routes in a row, but he has competed well in those events and rates to be the top horse on class here. He’ll have to find a good trip but with has a good pilot with which to do that. Can’t exclude him.
4 – Highly Distorted – another one with room to improve. Returned in a clunker off a two year layoff, and then fired a huge shot in his second start back against the standard maiden group in the circuit. Now he comes back off a 5 month layoff, so its not entirely certain what we’ll see from him, but if he’s ready, he figures here.
Race 7
8 – Mucho Gusto – the absolute class of the field, his only concern is the layoff. Baffert is 19% from that timeframe, so you’d have to figure he’s going to be fit and ready – and perhaps more importantly, this field is not anywhere near as strong as the ones he’s faced recently.
7 – Idol – seems likely to have plenty of pace to chase. He will certainly be tested for class today as this is his first stakes effort and only his second try against winners, but as stated previously, this isn’t a really tough race for the level.
6 – Midcourt – He gives his best every time, but he’s tailed off from his career best form of fall 2019 where he had a four-race winning streak. He got class relief last time and couldn’t find a way to the winners circle, but now with more front end speed here, perhaps that softens up those leaders and gives him a better shot.
Race 8
5 – Finite – in a race with many different potentials, she offers the most proven success. The only multiple graded stakes winner in the field, she looks to have some good early pace to run at and appears likely to blow by them in the lane. This is her fourth race off the layoff and she should be in peak form for this.
4 – Secret Keeper – ran a winning race in the Torrey Pines but unfortunately just couldn’t harness her early speed and ended up just a bit flat late. She’s been freshened and the trainer hits at 30% from a small sample size with this layoff. She has yet to show her best and being reunited with Cedillo could bring that out today.
3 – Himiko – has been visually impressive in both of her starts this fall, especially in her most recent race, where she dominated first level allowance horses. Goes from Gonzalez to Prat, which is an upgrade and has every right to continue her ascent.
Race 9
10 – Neige Blanche – in this tough race, give the nod to the one who seems likeliest to handle the trip. She’s G1 placed at the distance and has been freshened since her effort three months ago. Rispoli hops aboard and he’s one of the ones at this circuit. Could get her picture taken at a big number.
9 – Sharing – she’s the class of the field, but hasn’t raced at a major circuit track at a distance longer than a mile. Velazquez takes the reins today for the first time, and she’s a G1 winner at this track. Lots to like, but distance is a slight question.
8 – Duopoly – appears to be the only true speed in the race. It seems like a difficult chore to expect her to wire the field, but if Prat can get some soft early fractions, it may take some serious running behind her to catch her late.
Race 10
3 – Nashville – for a G1 sprint, there doesn’t seem to be an abundance of early speed in this race. He won like a good thing in his last race and obviously gets tested for class today, but if he’s able to relax a bit today on the front end, I don’t see how anyone comes to catch him. If he gets caught in another :43.4 half against these horses, totally different story.
1 – Collusion Illusion – a proven G1 winner and he has no issue coming from off the pace. He will likely be overlooked in the wagering and will need to take another step up with speed, but this race could fall right into his hands.
4 – Charlatan – much has been made about his absence from the racing circuit over the last 7 months, but the fact remains that he’s a top quality animal. However: first time off the layoff, at a distance he’s not proven at, with a new pilot – I’m willing to take a stand against him.
Race 11
8 – Counterparty Risk – in general, the East Coast turf horses seem to outperform their West Coast counterparts, and this filly appears to be ready to take another step forward in class. Give her the nod against some more established foes.
9 – Warrens Showtime – she’s a graded stakes winner and G1 placed, albeit only in California races. She’s a hard knocking filly that seems to produce a good run every time, and while she will need a quick pace to chase, she gets some needed class relief today
2 – Miss Extra – something obviously went wrong in her American debut where she was well backed but was well beaten. She returns today in a softer spot and adds Lasix, and Rispoli stays aboard. Certainly worth one more look to see if she can recapture the promise held as a Group 2 winner in Europe.
Best Bet: R4 – Smooth Like Straight (5)
Longshot Pick: R9 – Neige Blanche (10)