Welcome to Breeders Cup Friday at Santa Anita! While there is certainly loads of excitement surrounding today’s card full of tomorrow’s most promising young horses, there is also a great undercard scheduled for both Friday and Saturday. I will be covering the undercard on both days due to Ryan qualifying for BCBC – Congrats! I will also be providing coverage on one Breeders Cup race each day, with the other writers at The Daily Gallop covering the remaining races. For those keeping score at home, we turned a profit last week thanks to a 7-1 key in Swamp Souffle! Let’s keep the streak going today, and Happy Breeder’ Cup!
2019 Fall Santa Anita Statistics
Last Week: 25% (2/8 win, 6/8 ITM), $2.58 ROI per $2 win bet ($16 wagered, $20.60 returned)
Santa Anita Fall 2019: 31% (7/24 win, 14/24 ITM), $1.79 ROI per $2 win bet ($64 wagered, $57.40 returned)
Race 1: Mrathon-G2 13/4Mile
Picks: 5-4-1-2
We kick off the Breeders Cup undercard with a unique race going a marathon 14 furlongs on the main track. This interesting race attracted a field of 5, and this unusual distance always makes handicapping a bit of a challenge. I landed on the heavy ML favorite #5 Campaign. They probably don’t card races in America that are truly long enough for this bay colt, as he relishes these long-distance marathons having won at a mile and a half three times and a mile and 5/16ths once. He ran a very respectable third last out to some well-regarded turf routers in Zulu Alpha and Arkow, who came back to win the Grade 1 Joe Hirsch at Belmont. He owns 2 wins over the local track and is unquestionably suited to the distance. Curlin horses typically get better with age, and I think this 4-year-old is just now finding his best stride. The biggest risk is that his running style often leaves him far behind most of the field; however, he actually should catch a decent pace here as a few of these appear to do their best running near the front. #4 Zestful is one such runner. While the races certainly came against weaker foes, he nevertheless enters today riding a 6-race win streak, all in gate-to-wire fashion, including a career best effort last out going 10 furlongs. He showed no signs of slowing down in his last race, so I tend to believe he can get the distance today, and he projects to be the one to make the lead. He’s an interesting player, especially if the track is playing to early speed. #1 Itsinthepost is a beloved hard-knocking horse, and he fires his shot every time despite being 7 years old now. However, he has always done his best work on turf, and I’m inclined to think him ending up in this race is more a function of there not being many marathon races offered rather than the fact he truly prefers dirt. Still, he handled the surface fine when second to Campaign two back. He’s a logical contender, but at a short price others entice more.
Race 2: [F]OC 40000n1x
Picks: 4-11-10-2
The second race of the day is a wide-open affair of 11 fillies and mares going a mile on the turf course. I’m against a few of the morning line favorites, including #1 Rayana and #9 Heathers Grey, so I’m going to spread in this race and find a few prices. #4 Opus Won took a while to figure things out as a 2-year-old, but debuted her 3-year-old season as a completely new horse. She owns a record of 3-2-1-0 this year, including a win over this track and 2 wins at the mile distance. More importantly, she has improved and looked better and better in each of those 3 starts. If she simply repeats her last effort, she is a contender here, and any move forward from that race will make her tough to beat. She does step up in class from statebred company, but her tactical speed makes her a threat in any race she’s in, and she attracts the services of top east coast pilot Johnny Velazquez. #11 Tiger Silk is likely to be completely overlooked at the window due to her unfamiliar New Zealand form, but this filly has been training lights out lately, holding her own with stakes sort Extra Hope, and she already owns thorograph figures from her spring 2019 races that make her competitive here. She now adds Lasix and is eligible to improve, but how well she handles the American racing off of the long layoff with a disadvantageous post will be her main challenge. #10 An Eddie Surprise hasn’t had much luck finding the winners circle lately, but this hard-trying daughter of Square Eddie is always threatening late. Mario needs to work out a trip with this pace-pressing filly from the 10 post, and while a minor award is more likely, a win is not out of the question.
Race 3: [F][S]GldStJuvFB200K 7 Furlongs
Picks: 11-9-8-12
#11 Been Studying Her entered her last race off of a perfect 2 for 2 record when the connections thought highly enough of her to try her in the Grade 1 Chandelier. She didn’t run poorly, losing by 5 lengths to highly regarded Baffert filly Bast, but it was pretty apparent she prefers distances on the shorter side. She now gets a cutback to 7 furlongs and Mike Smith stays aboard, making her very dangerous here. She also is stuck far outside, but that draw could be advantageous as she allows the speed to her inside to send hard while she avoids any traffic trouble and takes up a position a few lengths off the pace. The top selection in another competitive race. #9 Cholula Lips is a horse who has been firing on a bit of a good race/bad race pattern, and I think she did not care for the grass last out and could be sitting on a nice effort here. She has plenty of speed, but Bejarano may be best served trying to rate her a bit as there is plenty of other speed drawn to her inside. Her “good” race puts here right in the mix with most of these. #8 Bulletproof One ran a strong race last out in the Speakeasy Stakes, getting beat by a narrow head to long shot El Tigre Terrible after encountering a bit of trouble. She showed a new dimension in that race where she rated kindly off the pace and looked every bit a winner until the final jump. I imagine she will be right up on the lead, but I do wonder how she will handle 7 furlongs when she has never won a race going further than 5.5.
Race 4: [S]GoldStJuvB200K 7 Furlongs
Picks: 11-7-2-8
#11 Square Deal has already won one of these California-bred restricted juveniles stakes races (and was DQ’d from a second), and he takes aim to win another one today. This off-the-pace grinder tried turf last out, a reasonable approach given the pedigree, but found the dirt was more to his liking. Throw out that race and he has been very sharp lately, beating a number of today’s rivals already. A strong pace projects to develop here with a number of today’s runners looking to make the lead, and I anticipate Square Deal gets a perfect stalk and pounce trip over the fatiguing leaders. #7 Chipper is still a maiden but ran a deceptively strong race last out, breaking slowly andfinding himself next to last in the early going, sticking to the rail while getting in a little tight before running into a horse who was just better that day in #2 Cali Dude. However, note that Chipper was 5 lengths clear of the show horse, and he was trying to close into somewhat slow fractions in a race where not very much passing was going on. There is a lot of pace signed on for this contest today, and I think he will get the right setup for his run style to be effective. Don’t overlook simply because he is still a maiden, as that debut was very professional. #2 Cali Dude is quite possibly the strongest speed horse, if not the quickest. While he did benefit from a good trip last out, he looked beaten on the turn but fought back to win while pulling away from Chipper. Will have plenty of company on the front end this time, but might be just that good to win anyway.