Pinch hitting today for the talented @CalebWVU and happy to cover this 7-race card for Friday. First thing that jumps out is that we will see three 5.5-furlong turf sprints in the early pick 5. This new distance for turf, which replaced the downhill turf races (miss those already) this season, has been playing fair considering last year when they made the switch to 5F when the downhill got cancelled it was heavily biased towards speed.
But, things change through the course of a season, and as is often the case, with action and dry weather these turf courses tighten up and begin to get more and more speed favoring. Example, going into last weeks racing, SA had run 23 turf sprints, of which 11 were won by those that were midpack (2+ lengths back at the 1/2M pole) and we had more 22+ first ¼’s than 22 or below. Last week we started to see this change (albeit a small sample) with 3 of 4 races being won by those on the lead or within 2 lengths at the 1/2M pole, and all 4 within a head or on the lead at the top of the stretch. Far from a strong bias in a small sample, but to get value at times you need to see it coming, so I will be playing Friday’s turf sprints with a heavier emphasis on early speed with hope that this read is the right one.
Race 1: 5.5F TURF MDSW $55K 3YO CA Breds PACE: Slow, Potential lone speed (3)
Projection: 3-6-1-5 Horizontals: A: 3,6 B:1,5 C:4,7 X: 2,8
Quick thoughts on each horse in this MSW field where we don’t have a lot of past performance data.
- 4F work times continue to improve, workmate for all has yet to race makes this one an interesting wildcard. Keep in mind, this one debuted less than a week after being gelded so encouraging to see that steady improvement in the AM. Blinkers On from the 1 post, possible he shows more early foot. Puype not strong with this equipment change angle (7%) or with 2nd time out (6%), but positive ROI with this owner whom he has 130 starts with ($2.77). Dam is an 8x winner and 3x Stakes winner with success on turf. Delgadillo/Puype cxn 19% with +ROI as well. Sneaky 10-1 here, but wish he didn’t draw the rail.
- Hard pass for me. Lorenzo Ruiz has been successful at the quarter horse claiming game, but in his career only has 8 lifetime first time starters without a win and only 1 hitting the board. Efrain also o’fer at SA this meet in 11 tries.
- Full brother of 5x Stakes Winner and turf sprint specialist Richard’s Boy. Sired by Idiot Proof who is 20%+ on both turf and sprints with progeny. Huge upgrade in jockey from first race when he broke slow for a trainer who is much better 2nd time out (27% when 4-1 or lower with 2nd time starters). Likely pace setter in a bunch that could allow a slower pace. Look out, top selection.
- Trainer has only won with a first time starter in MSW class once in last 4 years. Mizzen Mast babies only winning at 8% FTO. Dam with solid Thorograph numbers and 3 career wins and this one has been working well in the mornings. Mixed bag here in a state bred group that does not appear super strong. A use if spreading.
- I love Square Eddie’s in these SA Turf sprints, but for a horse coming off a 3 month break who has not proved he can get out of the gate smooth and has weak figs, you got to call this a vulnerable favorite. Now I do like the recent works, including a good gate drill, and you cant count out these connections, and is a full brother to two stakes winning turf sprinters.
- 2nd Puype entry in here where he is 19% $3.88 in last 26 starts with FTS’s. Valdiva has been working this horse in the mornings and has received 3 straight B- works by @clockandy. Dam was unraced and no sibs, but sire Clubhouse ride has been a success with 21% 3YO winners and 17% first time out. Also interesting to note, the trainer/owner connection is hot, with 22 career starts together and a 27% win rate and $4.07 ROI. Training styles suggest this one will be off the pace and make his run in the stretch.
- Not much to like in the first two starts of career with blah stalk and fade trips. 3rd different jock in as many rides and D’Amato a poor 11% on route to sprint angles. Workout report suggests this one moves like a sprinter and will relish this distance today. Keep an eye on the board with this one as this is a betting barn known to tip their hand on the odds board. Safety play if spreading on horizontals for now.
- Working terribly, C grades with full effort with a trainer who is 0-8 with FTS’s. From a $5k purchase LY to MSW ranks to debut. Stay away.
AEs- If #11 Hammerin Lemon draws in, would be dangerous on debut and a potential pace presence.
Race 2: 8F DIRT CLM $12.5k NL2 4YO+ PACE: Moderate, #1 possible lone
Projection: 1-5-3 Horizontals: A: 1,5 B: 3 C: 2 X: 4
These dirt route races have been biased toward front end speed, with 26 of 34 races entering Sunday had been won from on the lead or within 2 lengths of the leader at the ½. Not a ton of speed signed on in this one, but appears we should see the #1 Friendly Steve on the lead which would give advantage to this horse with this anticipated slow pace. I feel the favorite, #3 Canadian Game is vulnerable here as well despite Lerner’s 38% win rate first off the claim in last 16 starts. Interesting drop in class move by Lerner, just having paid 25k, to put him up for a 12.5k a month later would lose him money even on a win here. There are some better options available in the condition book here, so this could be a negative sign here. #5 Norski reunites with Eswan Flores who rode him 9 straight times without a win (6 ITM) before losing the mount to Jr. Diaz who won first time aboard. Eswan has got to want this one. Horse has been working out well in the AM with B+ and B works in his last two leading up to this effort. Appears cranked and ready to go and should get first run at pace setter.
Race 3: 5.5F TURF AOC 50K N1X CA Bred 3YO Fillies Pace: Slow but likely contentious
Projection: 2-6-1-7 Horizontal: A= 2 B=1,6,7 C= 3,4,5 X=
Fun fact about this race, of the field of 7 they have combined for 28 starts, not a single one as a Turf Sprint of any sort. So, this could be a fun one. In looking at the breeding, #2 Home Home stands out as very likely to like this turf sprint as a full brother to 3x stakes winner B Squared. One of two horses with stakes level experience where todays level should be needed class relief. #6 Smiling Shirlee has been impressive in recent workouts and appears ready to roll Friday. Strong late pace figs, but really could see this one a lot closer today. Two others that fit from abreeding standpoint, are #7 whose dam Cholula One is a stakes winning sprinter, who also had turf success and #1 Slewbury Park. #1’s dam scored a “6” in Thorograph in a turf sprint win, a strong figure. Possible pace presence here from the rail as well.
Race 4: 8F DIRT CLM $10K 4YO+ F&M PACE: Fast, possible duel.
Projection: 4-5-3 Horizontal: A= 4 B=3,5 C=2 X=1,6
Race 5: 5.5 TURF STAKES 75K 3YO PACE: FAST/ Contentious
Projection: 3-2-5 Horizontal: A: 2,3 B: 4,5 C: 1,6,7 X:
Peter Miller lifetime is 22% and $2.25 ROI and enters two in here today, one for each of his main two owners (Rockingham Ranch and Gary Barber). Both will be tough in here, with Bulletproof One setting the pace and #4 Billy Bats following just behind. #3 Bulletproof One should also love cutting back to a sprint, as he owns a 5:3-1-0 record in sprint races and has top thorograph fig of this group. #2 Rookie Mistake should also love getting back to the turf sprint where he has a win and a 3rd in 2 tries. Full brother to a stakes winning turf sprinter and B+ workout grades by @clockerandy. #5 Phast Pharoah really took a big step forward last race with a fig that fits this one. Should be an early pace presence from the outside. #7 Air Force jet has been working well and I like the victories in turf sprints in Ireland before coming to the states and dropping a dud in debut here vs a strong bunch in fast fractions on soft ground.
Race 6: 8F DIRT OC40K N1X 4YO+ PACE:
Projection: 7—5-6 Horizontal: A:7 B: 5,6 C: 1,4 X: 2,3
Singling #7 Lambeau here. Impressive dirt debut last out on a muddy track. This $475k yearling purchase debuted last summer in a turf route against what has ended up a strong group with the top 7 graduating since, including multiple stakes winner Mo Farza. In dirt win, was pressured from the ½ to the top of the stretch in a quick pace, but never was eyeballed. Still a strong overall performance. Sherrif’s rolling well with runs off a 60-90 day break, hitting at 39% with the last 23 runners. Outside post in a favorable race flow, the one. #5 Kylemore, who could be chasing as he does not want to get into a pace duel from the inside, could be good underneath value here. Again, with the 1M dirt track playing to front end runners, and off recent very strong works, 6-1 would be a gift for exotics.
Race 7: 8F TURF MDCLM $75K 3YO Fillies PACE: Slow but contentious
Projection: 9-4-3 Horizontal: A: 9 B: 3,4 C: 6,7 X: 1,2,5,8
Chalk city here again, but #9 Going to Vegas appears to be a standout in here. If you watch the replay of her last, after running behind a group with 2 horse pressure directly outside it appeared, she was about to fade on the turn before kicking it in at the top of the stretch to finish a good looking 2nd. Clean trip, this could be ablow out, and Prat has options from the outside here. #4 Cosmic Cowgirl drops in from MSW (Baltas is 29% $3.34 of late with this move) and comes out of 3 races with premium talent. This group could be just what the trainer ordered to breakthrough with a win. #3 Wine at Sunset has been working great with a recent B work, and gets a huge jockey upgrade. Half to Sonneteer and English Channel Sire gives this one a strong pedigree for long on turf.