Welcome back to Santa Anita! We had an off week last week, with an unusually high number of top pick selections completely missing the board. The favorites we trusted misfired badly, and the longshots we tried didn’t have their day either. We are still comfortably profitable over the meet so far, so let’s try to build some momentum heading into this weekend.
2020 Winter Santa Anita Statistics
Last Week: 25% (2/8 win, 4/8 ITM), $1.38 ROI per $2 win bet ($16 wagered, $11.00 returned)
Santa Anita Winter 2020: 34% (16/47 win, 35/47 ITM), $3.21 ROI per $2 win bet ($94 wagered, $151.02 returned)
Race 1: [F] MC 30000 1 Mile
Picks: 6,5 / 2
The first race of the day is an absolute mess to try to decipher, as very few of these horses have any established form whatsoever. This is a race that I will personally be skipping, so tread lightly with picks below. #6 First Empress is the reluctant top choice in this field of unknowns. This filly had a bit of a rough start in her debut, getting pinched at the break and taking back early. She never ran on much from there, so perhaps Eurton saw something to suggest she may perform better on the main track. She gets a massive class drop, and Eurton is 2 for 5 when dropping horses 2+ classes the last 3 years. Red-hot Rispoli takes the mount, but note that he has done most of his damage on the grass. #5 Subtle Ride doesn’t appear to be fast enough on speed figures to contend here, but her last race came back on the slow side due to the glacial fractions that were set on the front end with a speed horse going 25/50 for the quarter/half mile. Making up any ground at all against that slow pace is impressive, especially considering that she had to steady twice that race. There doesn’t seem to be much pace signed on today, so she could find herself up against the race flow once again, but she still figures logical in a field like this. #2 Turkish Angel switches barns and drops in class now trying dirt for the first time. The addition of blinkers and switch to aggressive rider Ochoa signals that they may want this filly to get more involved early. Needs a clean break but could find herself on the lead or tracking perpetual bridesmaid #4 Vannavanna Bo Bana and overtaking that one late. Speaking of Vannavanna Bo Bana, despite the wonderful name, this professional maiden has had too many chances at this level without breaking through for me to invest money on her. While yes, this is a pretty terrible field, I’m not willing to accept a short price on a horse who hits the board but has never been within 2 lengths of the winner in 8 career starts at this level.
Race 2: [F] Alw 50000s 51/2 Furlongs (T)
Picks: 3 / 2
There’s not much to be said about the second race of the day, as #3 Smiling Annie appears extremely likely to take the win at short odds. 5-year-old mare projects as the lone speed in a turf sprint surprisingly short on pace presence. Turf ace Prat takes the mount, and note that she had a trouble trip last out in a better-than-looks effort. The pick. #2 Roses and Candy put in a respectable effort turf sprinting two-back when beaten just a length to Smiling Annie after bobbling the break and coming out next to last. With a cleaner start, this one could surprise, and McAnally already had a nice upset winner last Friday as well. #4 Querelle has been massively disappointing since coming to the US, and this dead closer now tries adding blinkers and cutting back from a mile to a 5.5-furlong sprint. One has to respect these connections, especially on the grass, but nothing suggests to me that the cutback will be the answer for the Violence filly.
Race 3: [F] Clm 12500n2L 61/2 Furlongs
Picks: 5, 2, 1
The fields don’t get much prettier in Race 3, as this low level group of nonwinners of 2 races lifetime lacks a true standout. #5 Purdue is not an easy horse to trust, as she’s never hit the board in 8 dirt tries, but she has also made the lead in her last 6 races. There is some other speed in here, but I think Purdue is by far the quickest and has the ability to open up 3 lengths on this field. Stamina is the huge question, as she seems unable to last beyond 5 furlongs, but those last 3 races aren’t bad efforts by any stretch, as the winner of each went on to win again next out. The layoff is a concern, but note the series of 6 furlong works lately, suggesting Truman recognizes the stamina deficiencies and is trying to improve her conditioning. He’s also having a good start to the meet, with 2 wins from 6 starters and 4 of 6 horses finishing ITM. Should make them all early and hope to hold on late. #2 Jabber Now was a bit flat in her first start off the lengthy layoff, but she took a step forward last out despite bobbling the start a bit. It’s fair to expect another step forward in her third start off the layoff, and if the pace gets too hot she should get a good stalking trip. #1 Queen Carmelita ran a game race last out to lose by a neck, and she was fighting back late at odds of 23-1. Definitely won’t get a price like that today, as she has speed and an inside draw to be dangerous. Must find a way to last an extra half-furlong though, which may be the test for many of these today.
Race 4: [F] Clm 16000 51/2 Furlongs
Picks: 2, 6 / 5
At first glance, one could easily confuse Race 4 at Santa Anita for a quarter horse race at Los Alamitos. There’s no shortage of speed in this sprint, but there also aren’t any true closers signed on either. I’m inclined to go with #2 Emmy and I as the top selection. Not sure why the connections insist on running her on turf, as she is 0/14 on grass but 3/9 on dirt and 6/17 on the AW track. Talented miss clearly has speed as she wired a 870 yard dash last out in her first start off the layoff. She’s clearly fit, and she has been running against much tougher company and posting big speed figures on dirt back in the spring and summer of 2019. She may contest the lead, but I think the rider could also elect to rate her just off the pace as in her victory 3 back. Despite the overwhelming pace setup, closers rarely win these short dirt sprints. #6 Christy Jackson is not a closer by the true definition, but she doesn’t have nearly the early foot to keep up with many of today’s rivals and will likely find herself well off the pace in a race that should be molten hot on the front end. Mare has a knack for finishing second, but if she was ever going to get the right pace setup today might be the day she takes home top honors. #5 Tiz Toffee was beaten by Emmy and I two back but came back strong to win her next start. Trainer Rosemary Trela is firing on all cylinders right now, and stamina should not be a question for this mare who has a good deal of route experience on her resume. If she can rate she will be very dangerous, but she has never rated before and isn’t likely quick enough to make the lead against this bunch.
Race 5: Mdn 55k 1 Mile
Picks: 1,2 / 4
#1 Cardiff Cay is the top pick in Race 6. Don Chatlos, previous assistant trainer to Jerry Hollendorfer, sends out the $560k OXO Equine purchase for his sixth start. Despite a turfy pedigree, maybe this colt just has wanted dirt all along. Chatlos is winning an impressive 30% so far this meet and has had some success with removing blinkers. The inside draw has been excellent at Santa Anita due to the very short run to the first turn, with the rail winning at 33% this meet. Should be able to run all day if he takes to the main track. #2 Muralist is another trying dirt for the first time. He took a big step forward last out, setting an honest pace before being collared late in his second start off a year long layoff. Fair to expect he will be more fit today, and he does have a good inside draw and early speed coupled with a rider upgrade in the switch to Rosario. Very dangerous, but one must wonder why switch to dirt after such a strong race on turf last out? #4 Strugar is the most attractive of the debut runners. This full-sibling to multiple graded stakes winner Timeline goes out for Eurton, who gets 10% first time starter winners and is 1/7 with horses debuting over a mile. Works seem steady if not spectacular; might be one to watch the tote and see if he’s taking action.
Race 6: Alw 50000s 1 Mile (T)
Picks: 6 / 3,2
#6 Takeo took a while to find the winner’s circle for the first time, but he finds a soft group today in this starter allowance field. His lone win came in gate to wire fashion, and he appears to have a massive pace advantage over the rest of this field. The Santa Anita turf has played a bit strange lately, and there’s an outside chance one of the sprinters stretching out could try to contest the pace. However, I think Takeo has the tactical ability to clear from the outside post and take this field all the way. #3 Sea of Liberty is the most likely pace threat to Takeo, and if that one isn’t quite good enough I expect Sea of Liberty to be in the perfect position late to get first run turning for home. I expect moderate fractions in this event, so any horse who can be forwardly placed will have a sizeable advantage. Hronis – Sadler – Velez have been a strong tandem all year, and this horse appears to have a decent shot at posting back to back victories today. #2 Order and Law doesn’t have much early speed and will be spotting the field a head start early, but he does get a big rider upgrade with Rosario now in the irons. This hard-knock horse has not had any luck at Santa Anita, never hitting the board in 5 career tries, but most of those efforts were against tougher competition than he faces today. While it’s tough to completely forgive the last effort, he does have a handful of speed figures that make him a threat today if he can run back to them.
Race 7: [F] Alw 50000s 61/2 Furlongs
Picks: 3, 2 / 6
Race 7 brings another uninspired short field on a day where it appears difficult to make much money. I’m going to take a swing with longshot of the day #3 Tinsel Town Queen. This race appears destined to go one of two ways: either one of the two main speeds in #3 Tinsel Town Queen or #5 Mucho Macho Woman are able to clear the other and take this field all the way, or they burn each other up and #2 Jaccat or #4 Tamaraandtheboys pick up the pieces. As I’m stubborn as a mule when betting horses facing winners for the first time, I’m going with scenario 1 with Tinsel Town Queen outlasting Mucho macho Woman. This speedball runs best on the lead, and she gets the services of one of the best frontrunning jockeys in the game with Maldonado. Never out of the exacta in her two starts on dirt, she figures to improve on the return to her preferred surface. She needs to improve on speed figures to contend here, but that’s not out of the question, especially if the favorite doesn’t fire her best coming off of a career effort last out. Of the off-the-pace runners, I give the nod to #2 Jaccat. Although still winless on dirt, she has hit the board in 3 of 5 starts sprinting on dirt at the same level today, and she retains the services of Prat in the irons. Overall, this race is a poor betting proposition with the short field, so the best way to try to inject value is to exploit the deserving but vulnerable favorite #6 Mucho Macho Woman.
Race 8: MC 75000 1 Mile (T)
Picks: 4, 3 / 9, 7
The last race of the day finally provides us with a decent field size and wagering opportunity, with no clear favorite and a number of interesting possibilities. #4 Railsplitter arguably ran the best race of his career in his only start on turf, back in July 2019 at Del Mar. It’s asking a lot of 2-year-olds to run a route race in only July of their 2-year-old season, so that effort is better than it looks. It’s even more impressive when you note that the winner, Hit the Road, went on to win a turf stakes race and run in the BC Juvenile Turf later that year. The blinkers experiment did not go well, and he now returns off a freshening making his 3-year-old debut as a first-time gelding. AM workouts suggest he should be ready to fire a big shot, and it’s encouraging to see Cedillo retain the mount. #3 Best Chance figures logical here, although he’s a bit of a peculiar horse to figure out. On turf he appeared to be a closer, yet in his two dirt tries he’s shown much more early speed. I’m willing to bet he will be a pace presence here today, and Rosario takes the mount after having a chance to figure him out two-back. Both of those dirt races came back strong, with The Stiff, Taishan, and Tizamagician all highly regarded 3-year-old prospects. #9 Brother Reid showed some interest late when closing well after falling well back in his debut. He now switches to the Cerin barn and stretches out to a distance that should suit him better. I said last week that Rispoli was approaching must use territory despite his horse looking a cut below the others, and that horse went on to win and pay $22, so I won’t be fooled twice. Rispoli on grass has won at a 50% clip the last 7 days and is a must use on any turf mount he ends up on.