Race 1
6-1-5
#6 Garth: Pretty simple spot where he’s the fastest out of the gate by a lot and unless one of the firsters goes with him it should be over out of the gate. he has lost twice as a favorite. Bob Baffert is almost 40% with two-year-olds. I don’t like that he hasn’t improved his Beyer figure but he fits based on the Par and this is probably his best shot to win since his debut.
#1 Moon Mischief: I really want to take this one on top I just don’t know if he can stay close enough to be able to go by our top pick. now back in the day I would take this horse just based off that last great Beyer BUT it was done on slow fractions something I don’t think he will see today and the horses that have run back since that last race have dropped there Beyers considerable I think that puts him on par with the top pick and probable a straight exacta and a win bet on my second choice aught to do it in this race.
Race 2
5-1-4
#5 Angel Alessandra: Her last win came in an N1X 80K and she just ran back at the same level running an 80 which was a new Beyer top. The last time she faced graded stake foes she lost by 21 so the class level is a bit of a concern.She did run second both times off the layoff on her pp’s so she runs ok fresh.
#1 Keeper ofthe Stars: After winning a G3 2back she bombed next time out in the Red Carpet so was she going off form or was she just not a fan of Del Mar that day. The nice win 2 back looks better then it was as she got to close into fast fractions.
Race 3
5-3-9-4
#5 Rickie Nine Toes: The key for me when it comes to beating the maiden game is to find out what the Beyer Par is and see who has run over it or around it. well, there’s only one in the field and its this filly. 62 Beyer beats the par easily and that’s probably the reason he is 9-5 on the M/L. There is a lot of speed in this race so I’m expecting a hot pace but she should get a nice stalking trip 4th or fifth. Trainer Brian Koriner with a great trainer stat 4-9 with 2nd-time 2-year-old dirt sprinters in maiden claimers.
#3 Swift socks: the other 3 selections are pretty much interchangeable but this daughter of Lucky Pulpit has a few things that I like for angles. She is coming out of the same race as my top pick and has improving works coming into the race. I always give extra credit to maidens with improving works. if she takes money and ends up below 4-1 based on trainer stats from Bill Spawr they usually hit the board 2nd time starting 2-year-olds 1-5 4 ITM.
#9 Its A Riddle: this Filly should be up on the pace and she is one of few who has survived pace duels and still been able to finish. She has hit the board at the level in her previous two so she fits quite nicely here but as we all know the more starts as a maiden the less chance they have of actually breaking the maiden.
Race 4′
1-8-5
Race 5
6-2-1
#6 Midcourt: Another chalky race for me really finding it hard to get down to some prices. taking this second choice due to a nice win in a G3 last out and the nice improvement in the Beyer figures.This Gelding has also every type of running style to win although if we go by his Native dancer he should be on the engine.
#2 Gift Box: 3 straight 100 Beyers off the barn change to John Sadler. He has won fresh in the past before so the layoff isn’t a big deal to me. He’s back to win this race back to back after winning last year with a 101 Beyer. It might be my two picks 1-2 rounding for home with Gift Box looking tor un down my top pick.
Race 6
7-3-5
Race 7
1-5-6
#1 First star: This daughter of First dude has been sensational in her first 3 starts. Two wins and a valiant try in her first graded stake try. She has been very consistent on speed figures 92-88-91 and more improvement here will put her in the winner’s circle. Trainer Ronald Ellis isn’t that good with these types of layoffs but she won first out so not to worried about that
#5 Bellafina: The Santa Anita specialist ran fantastic at the Breeders Cup with a Gaudy 105 Beyer some are expecting a bounce but with only 12 starts maybe she won’t bounce as far as people think I have a feeling she runs a number in the ’90s which even at a short price can put her in the winners circle. In 5 starts she has never missed the exacta at Santa Anita.
#6 Bells the One: This one beat our top pick last time out at Keeneland for her first graded stake win but I two tries against G1 company she hasn’t hit the board. She has been working fantastic but with her needing some pace up front and Santa Anita being famous for being speed friendly she may be up against it in what looks to be a great G1 La Brea this year.
Race 8
5-1-2
Race 9
5-2
#5 Omaha Beach: This son by War Front has been working up a storm at Santa Anita. You know he can win fresh and he has already won 2 G1’s this year this will be his prep before the Pegasusand he has improved every speed fig that’s 5 in a row take the short chalk and move on.
#2 Complexity: If Much better and Omaha Beach hook up then maybe things set up for this Chad Brown runner The Juvenile might have been too long for him and that Woody Stephens was a barn burner. He won the right way last time out with a big number even if he bounces slightly and I think the M/L might be wrong here I think Roadster goes off second choice you might get some value underneath of Omaha Beach.
Race 10
6-5-7
Race 11
11-8-2-10
#11 Totally Tiger: I found it really hard to separate the top two so yes I am a chalk eating weasel. This son by Smiling Tiger has never raced for a tag before and holds a nice class edge and nice Beyer of 60 2 back crushes this field. Now the concerns he is turning back in distance and with not much speed in the race, he may be up against it from a pace standpoint.
#8 Papa Tony: this colt may be hitting his best stride in this form cycle and now may have just one other speed horse to deal with that one being the 34 at 20-1 so if he can put him away he may be on top at the top of the stretch and that’s a good formula for winning at lower-level maiden claimers. He seems to be running around mid 40 Beyers he will need to improve around 8 points hopefully the pace advantage can help that not a bad price either 6-1.
#2 Include the Tax: Big jock upgrade here to Joel Rosario and I like the small improvement each race he also comes out of a good Key race from 31 of October at Santa Anita two next out winners two-second places and almost every horse improved there Beyer. Trainer Mike McCarthy is 8-24 33% big 3$ ROI with 2-year-old maiden claimers.