Race 1:
1: 1st time blinks a 38% move recently for Baltas. Gets one of the best turf riders in the country and should be able to save ground and find herself sitting right off the pace. Debut of an 11 Thorofig last Nov in a debut turf route, since has found early trouble. Working well, and fast exiting last weeks 47 second 4F spin.
3: strong debut in Sept as a 2yo in turf route, closing late for 3rd and a 10thorofig. Gave connections confidence to try stakes next time out where she competed and stalked 2nd throughout but gave way deep stretch to finish 4th by 2 lengths, not a bad effort. Was given 7 months and came back 3 weeks ago where she likely needed one but still matched the 10fig from debut . Expecting improvement in 2nd off lay-off and 2nd as a 3yo. Keith D 40% recent win rate (15 starts) with 2nd off lay-off.
4 and 8: both Sadler horses debuted last month in the same race at SA going 5F on the turf,
with each getting off poorly. #4 took money down to 2nd choice and finished strong for 2nd while the 8 closed into 4th. #4 should like the extra distance on the green as she is a full to 2x SW on turf routes Soul Driver. #8 has sibs with very good figs on dirt routes, not much evidence of turf route success on dam/sibs so interesting they decided to match up again here. Works favor the 4 as well.
9: likely pace of the race as we have seen Kitchingman do this before in trying to steal a race on the front end. Last couple of days itʼs been a tough place to be to win, but prior trend was favoring front end speed. Hard to say what we see today after rains yesterday. After going off as a long shot on debut last fall, was heavily backed as the favorite in her 2nd start where she tried fate to wire tactics before being caught late. 7 month lay-off but I like the work pattern, may need one but could just be fit enough if not pressured on the front end. Gets first look at an outside post.
A: 3,4 B: 1 C: 8,9
Race 2: Wide open race with some nice talent in here. Baffert duo likely to take money, #1 should show early speed with all signs pointing to #2 coming strong late. Baffert Win % on first timers still above 40% this past year and with this horse not missing a work since Feb with a few bullets mixed in (as well as good gate works) is telling of his fitness. Work comments indicate may be a turfer down the line. #4 Karmically got glowing workout reports from Donald Harris/Toby Turrell but Sherrifs not probe to win first out, nor are Union Rags offspring. My “A” will come from the Hollendorfer barn (also owner) with Excuses Begone. Wouldnʼt be surprised if we get 3-1 or better with the Bafferts in the race, but like the outside draw on debut. First foal of Stopshoppingdebbie who won 9 of 10 races in her career (was a perfect 9 for 9 at EMD before shipping into the LA Woman
Stakes at Santa Anita where she lost as the favorite after stumbling at the start.) we get the red-hot Prat on board who is 26% with Hollendorfer lifetime and 33% this meet, and where Hollendorfer is 34% lifetime with Maidens in the gate at 4-1 or better.
A: 5 B: 2,4 C: 1,3
Race 3: The comments for the running line in Jasikanʼs last donʼt do the poor trip justice. Stood in the gate and lost a length from the get go, 3w through the full backstretch, 4-5W on the turn, bore in and lost momentum in stretch. Bejarano jumps off for Legends of War (or more likely lost mount to Rosario who Sadler prefers). Rosario will be a great fit for this horse who should be coming late. How can you not love the Group 1 and 2ʼs for #7 Legends of War as a 2YO overseas. Has faced much better than this group but does stretch out now and removes blinkers. Not seeing much evidence this
horse will love routing from dam and sibs so the extra distance is a bit of a concern but class alone could overcome. Big Scott Daddy is working well and despite strong thorograph figs on dirt routes for sibs, has traveled like a turfer and gets another shot on the green here where he could be loose on the lead.
A: 6 B: 7 C: 4
Race 4: Low level claiming race. I see the #1 as the speed of the speed here. Last time at SA on the 1M dirt course won by 7.5 lengths gate to wire at the 12.5k level. Now at $16k but this group is not the strongest bunch and the race lacks early pace. Pace pressure could come from #2 Honeymoonz Over who is wheeled back from a race 7 days ago where he flopped from the same post position after showing promising works leading up to last race, a move Yakteen in 1 for 19 on lifetime, pass. #5Van Cortlandt has 2 lifetime starts over dirt with no placing.
However, the one at SA last year has a fig that would win with ease today. Strong works coming into it as well. #4 Point Guard runs here for Saldana and this is Reedʼs level where in claiming races he is better than 20% win and $2.45 ROI. Also is sneaky on his sprint to route setups that have led to a recent 21% win rate and $14.81 ROI A: 1 B: 4,5
Race 5: #1 Achira was coming well late in his return from a 6 month layoff against a speed bias. Will like the extra furlong and at his best has figures superior to this bunch. 2nd off the layoff should improve and gets Espinoza back on board. Could be a big day for Prat, as he is on the ever improving #3 Tiny Tina here who has begun her 4 YO campaign impressively with 2 wins and a 2nd. Workout reports are glowing about her and she could be primed for her 3rd in a row. Donʼt dismiss #6 Anna Pavlova who was Group 2 places overseas on turf and gets her first taste of American Firm Turf today.
At 15-1 with some pace to run at will be coming strong late.
A: 1,3 B: 6 C: 8