Blog

Race of the Week: Tourist Mile

Saturday August 31^st: Race 8 at Kentucky Downs. The $750,000 Tourist Mile Stakes run at one mile on the turf for three year olds and upward. (Post Time: 5:11 PM EDT).

Joseph Wulffe

Twitter: @Whtnbourbonguy

Selections: 4 (Hembree)- 11 (Real Story)- 5 (Parlor)     Use Underneath: 2 (Next Shares) & 9 (Mr. Cub)

1. Snapper Sinclair: (Steve Asmussen/Julien Leparoux) 8-1 ML

4 Year Old Colt by City Zip

TimeForm: 97 Early Pace/91 Late Pace

• Last Time Out: Finished 3^rd in 8.5F G3 West Virginia Governor’s Cup at Mountaineer on August 3^rd
  • Chose to stalk early on, loomed as a threat to the leaders going into the far turn, was angled 5 wide into the lane and ended up hanging to lose by 1 ¼ lengths
  • Earned 114 TF speed rating for effort
• Saturday: Will transition back to running on the turf for the 1^st time since October of last year (when seen finishing a well-beaten 8^th in a $71K Allowance race over a yielding 5 ½ F at Keeneland)
  • However, Snapper Sinclair has raced once before at Kentucky Downs (KD) as a 2yo when he won the $350K F-T Turf Showcase Juvenile Stakes going 7F over a good rated course
  • Given the unique European-style configuration of the track (with it’s rolling hills and right-handed turn, something that no other American turf course possesses), prior experience over the course could give a runner a major advantage in this race
• Running Style: While on the dirt, Snapper Sinclair has primarily run as a pace-stalker though it appears that he has some good tactical speed given the fact that in several of his efforts he served as either the pace-setter or a pace-presser
  • Now whether that running style translates to turf (a surface on which he has not run in nearly a year) remains to be seen
  • But this colt does not have great early speed and thus he will likely be shuffled back after the start and forced to take up a stalking role from amongst the runners in the middle of the pack
• Trainer/Jockey Stats & Workouts:
  • Past 3 Years: Asmussen Going Dirt to Turf-15% win rate/41% ITM rate (from 499 starts)
  • Leparoux: Riding in Turf Races This Year- 14% win rate/34% ITM rate (from 240 starts)
• Ultimatum: TOSS (I think Snapper Sinclair is at a major disadvantage here trying to make his transition back to the turf in a major stakes race such as this. The competition in this field is rather salty, this young colt drew a less than ideal post position (historically the inside posts at KD have not yielded many winners), and even when racing on dirt, Snapper Sinclair was simply outclassed in many of his efforts in even listed stakes).

2. Next Shares: (Richard Baltas/Florent Geroux) 7/2 ML

6 Year Old Gelding by Archarcharch

TimeForm: 67 Early Pace/116 Late Pace*

• Last Time Out: Simply was no match for Bricks and Mortar in the G1 Turf Classic at CD on May 4^th going 9F over good rated going and finished a well-beaten 10^th after breaking slowly from the gates
  • The 114 TF speed rating that he earned for his performance that day was his lowest speed figure since last August at Del Mar in the G2 Del Mar Mile Handicap
  • Next Shares has not been seen since that effort and it appears he has been given a lengthy freshening of nearly 4 months (119 days) though some of his prior works have hinted that he was being pointed towards races held early in the summer but the connections ultimately elected to forego those spots for a potentially softer landing
• Saturday: This will be Next Shares third time racing at this track, last year he won the $250K Old Friends Stakes going 1 mile & 70 yards in convincing fashion as he sat well back of the leaders early on, was well off of the rail in the final turn, drove past his tiring rivals in a 3 wide bid down the long stretch and easily cleared them to win by nearly two lengths (the 126 TF speed rating he earned for that effort remains his career best)
  • As mentioned earlier, prior experience (especially a win) at KD could be a deciding factor in determining whether or not a runner will have a successful outing on Saturday and thus Next Shares should be able to capitalize upon his victory last year to have a shot at winning again if he is fresh and ready to fire 
  • There are several concerns for this gelding and one of them is the distance.
    • It’s not so much that Next Shares cannot get a mile, it’s more that a mile is definitely not his preferred distance as he’s won just twice in 11 starts going 8 panels (and finished in the money four other times).
• Running Style: Next Shares has a rather interesting running style that appears to be a mix between that of a stalker and a closer (but he does not seem to particularly pace-dependent either).
  • In fact his TF LP figure of a 116 is the fastest amongst the entire field which is a testament to his decent late closing kick 
  • Moreover the TimeForm Pace Projector suggests it is quite likely that he will be positioned at the rear of the field early on and will have to employ that late speed of his to have any chance whatsoever at passing tiring rivals down that incredibly long stretch at KD (at 1320 feet, it is one of the longest stretch runs in all of North America)
• Trainer/Jockey Stats & Workouts:
  • Baltas Past 3 Years: 90+ Days Away- 16/42 from 212
  • Geroux Riding in Turf Races This Year: 21/43 from 253
  • Two prior bullet works (one going 4F over the turf at Del Mar & the other going 6F at San Luis Rey on the dirt) leading up to this race
    • Thus fitness does not appear to be an issue for Next Shares; however, the last time this gelding attempted to race after such a long layoff he offered up a very poor showing in the G1 Frank Kilroe at Santa Anita earlier this year
    • It is only fair to theorize that perhaps this race on Saturday is merely being used as a prep to get Next Shares (who likely will not be more than 70% cranked up) into shape in time to be competitive in order to defend his G1 Shadwell Turf Mile victory at Keeneland in October
• Ultimatum: USE UNDERNEATH ONLY (I have serious doubts that Next Shares is going to be capable of firing off an effort that will allow him to win this race after such a lengthy layoff and given his short ML odds (no idea why he was made the favorite), it is certainly worth playing against a horse that does not appear to like going 8F and will be taking on a solid bunch of rivals on Saturday).

3. Bandar: (Luis Jurado/Sonny Leon) 50-1 ML {Jockey Change to Tyler Baze)

6 Year Old Gelding by Quien

TimeForm: 86 Early Pace/90 Late Pace

• Last Time Out: Finished a well-beaten 9^th in the $75K West Virginia Speaker’s Cup going 1 mile & 70 yds over firm going on August 3^rd at Mountaineer
  • Earned a paltry 105 TF speed rating for effort
• Saturday: This will be Bandar’s third career race at KD, he has yet to even finish in the money in two prior tries at this track (last year he was 5^th in this race, beaten by 6 lengths)
  • Furthermore, he has only won three of his seven lifetime attempts going a mile
• Running Style: Bandar’s running style, at least while on turf, is that of a mid-pack stalker (the TF PP suggests it is likely he will be well back early on given his complete lack of any sort of initial speed)
• Trainer Stats & Workouts:
  • Jurado Past 3 Years: Non-Graded Stakes- 0/13 from 23
  • Sharp 4F work on August 24^th
• Ultimatum: TOSS (This horse is simply outclassed in this field and has no shot whatsoever at even hitting the board).

4. Hembree: (Mike Maker/Tyler Gaffalione) 4-1 ML

5 Year Old Horse by Proud Citizen

TimeForm: 78 Early Pace/112 Late Pace

• Last Time Out: Finished a disappointing 6^th in the G1 4StarDave Handicap at Saratoga going a mile on August 10^th
  • There really was no excuse for his effort that day as he appeared to be in an ideal position throughout the early stages of that race and seemed loaded turning for home but then only offered a mild response down the lane 
  • Earned a 119 TF speed rating for performance
  • Prior to that had finished 2^nd in back to back efforts in the G3 Forbidden Apple at Saratoga and G3 Poker Stakes at Belmont (both at a mile) in which he lost by a combined ½ a length and earned 122 and 121 respective speed figures
• Saturday: Hembree returns to KD for the first time since winning a seven furlong $62.5K Allowance Optional Claiming race there last September 
  • Furthermore, he will once again be racing at what appears to be his favorite distance of a mile; over the course of his career he has amassed a record of 13-2-8-0 for 8F
• Running Style: Hembree’s primary running style is that of a drop-back closer who does his best running in the latter stages of the race
  • He has the second fastest TF LP figures amongst the entire field and appears to have a particularly devastating late kick which he should be able to employ to his advantage given the likely fast initial pace-scenario for this race
  • The TF PP has indicated that Hembree will likely be positioned towards the rear of the field early on but so long as Gaffalione can keep him out of traffic and give him a clear running lane down the stretch then this horse will be flying late and picking off tiring rivals for whom that ¼ mile stretch is just too long
• Trainer/Jockey Stats:
  • Maker Past 3 Years: Non-Graded Stakes- 16/47 from 452 
  • Gaffalione: Riding in Turf Races This Year- 14/41 from 375
• Ultimatum: TOP SELECTION (Over the past few years, Mike Maker has turned Kentucky Downs into his own personal playground and has absolutely dominated the racing here, albeit with mostly favorites, but that bodes well for Hembree’s chances in this race. Additionally, given a likely fast and quite possibly contentious early pace for this race, this scenario should allow the race to set up quite well for Hembree’s off-the-pace running style. While Hembree does not win often when racing a mile, he often finishes in the exacta and given the fact that he will be experiencing some serious class relief on Saturday, this should be the right spot for him to pick up another win at the distance).

5. Parlor: (Eddie Kenneally/Corey Lanerie) 12-1 ML

5 Year Old Gelding by Lonhro

TimeForm: 74 Early Pace/106 Late Pace

• Last Time Out: Won the $100K Glasgow Stakes going 7 ½ F at Delaware Park on July 13^th
  • Received a masterful ride from Jose Ortiz and via a perfect trip was able to initially stalk the leaders and then shoot up along the rail as the field hit the top of the stretch and unleash a drive that resulted in Parlor besting the longtime leader by a length
  • Earned a 118 TF speed rating for that effort which should make him competitive versus this field
• Saturday: Returns to KD for the fourth time in his career in search of his first win (his prior three starts have resulted in two seconds and a third); last year he ran 3^rd behind Next Shares and Siem Riep in the Old Friends Stakes
  • Therefore in terms of prior experience over the course at KD, Parlor has the advantage over the entire field as he has raced there the most and is thus intimately familiar with the eccentricities of its layout
  • As for the mile distance, Parlor has won three of his six career tries going eight panels
• Running Style: Parlor has primarily run as a closer over the course of his career though he can race a little more forwardly (i.e. mid-pack) especially when the initial pace of the race is quite slow
  • Given the likely fast early pace of this race, it would be no surprise to see Parlor drop back to the rear of the field early on and then attempt to commence a long driving run as the field enters the stretch
  • The key for success for Parlor on Saturday will be that Lanerie is going to have to get the jump on the other closers and have Parlor ready to fire before his other late-running rivals are fully spun up to commence their own drives
• Trainer/Jockey Stats & Workouts:
  • Kenneally Past Three Years: 46-90 Days Away- 16/45 from 163
  • Lanerie Riding for Kenneally Over the Past 60 Days: 22/67 from 18
  • Bullet 4F work over the main track at CD in :46⁴ on August 16^th
• Ultimatum: THIRD SELECTION (I am just not sure that Parlor is on the same level of some of his rivals in this field so while it would not surprise me to see him win (it likely would take a career best effort and a perfect trip to do so), an in the money finish is certainly within the realm of possibilities for him. Furthermore, the OptixPlot indicates that this race should set up quite well for Parlor given his positioning on the plot and the likely fast and contentious nature of the initial pace of the race. Besides, at 12-1 on the ML and with great prior experience over this track, it’s hard to not give this gelding a shot here).

6. Siem Riep: (Terry Brennan/Channing Hill) 15-1 ML {SCRATCHED}

5 Year Old Gelding by Tapit

TimeForm: 120 Early Pace/71 Late Pace

• Last Time Out: Finished 2^nd by a neck in the $100K Kentucky Downs Preview Tourist Mile at Ellis Park back on August 4^th 
  • Set a fairly swift early pace, was clear turning into the stretch and then was caught late by rival Mr. Cub at the wire
  • Earned a 121 TF speed figure for effort 
• Saturday: Returns to KD for the third time in his career; last seen finishing 2^nd behind Next Shares in last year’s edition of the Old Friends Stakes
  • Appears to be best at the one mile distance as he has compiled a record of       13-5-3-1 over the course of his career (and has only won one other time not going 8F)
• Running Style: According to Brisnet, Siem Riep is one of three runners in this field given the designation of E8 (meaning that these are horses that have consistently demonstrated that they can serve as effective pace-setters time and time again).
  • In fact, in 8 of his last 10 starts, Siem Riep has been on the lead from the get go and won 2 of those starts in gate to wire fashion
  • While both TimeForm and OptixPlot suggest that another rival (Great Wide Open) will be the likely pace-setter for this year’s Tourist Mile, that rival has not run since April and moreover Siem Riep has been displaying faster early speed as of late
    • Whatever the case may be, it is very possible that Siem Riep and Great Wide Open will become locked in a speed duel on the front end which should not only result in a rather swift early pace being set (which would be quite beneficial to those off the pace type runners) but could also result in those two wearing themselves out such that a minor award is perhaps the ceiling in this race
    • Should Great Wide Open not fire and break alertly from the gates on Saturday, look for Siem Riep to take over pace-setting duties and attempt to take this field as far as he can possibly go; though, I would expect to see one or two rivals catch him in the deep stretch resulting in him finishing 2^nd or 3^rd in this race
• Trainer/Jockey Stats:
  • It should be noted that Siem Riep will be making just his 2^nd career start on Saturday for new trainer Brennan after having been moved from the barn of trainer Ben Colebrook following his G2 Wise Dan non-effort
  • Hill Riding on Turf Past Year: 12/28 from 50
• Ultimatum: USE UNDERNEATH (Although OptixPlot indicates that Siem Riep has good finishing ability and might be able to spoil things by going gate to wire, I am of the opinion that the pace for this race is just going to be too contentious up front early on for this gelding to be able to withstand multiple bids by the closers late. However, he may be able to hang around for a minor share and if he remains near his ML odds of 15-1 then he certainly is worth including in exotics).

7. Exulting: (Mike Maker/Chris Landeros) 20-1 ML {JOCKEY CHANGE TO Gabriel or Luis Suiz}

6 Year Old Gelding by Tapit

TimeForm: 84 Early Pace/107 Late Pace

• Last Time Out: Finished as well-beaten 4^th in the G3 WV Governor’s Stakes at Mountaineer on August 3^rd
  • Was well back early on, tried to run along the rail on the far turn but was checked at the ¼ pole and held for position down the stretch
• Saturday: Will be making his first trip to KD and attempting just his second try on the grass
• Running Style: Has primarily run as a mid to deep-pack closer whilst on the dirt; thus it is unknown as to exactly what sort of running style he will display on the turf (although the TF PP suggests that he could be towards the rear of the field early on)
• Trainer/Jockey Stats & Workouts:
  • Maker Past 3 Years: Dirt to Turf- 16/45 from 338
  • Landeros Riding on Turf Past Year: 7/22 from 242
  • Sharp 5F work over the training track at CD on August 24^th
• Ultimatum: TOSS (I really do not like to see a trainer experimenting with surface switches so late into a horse’s career and for this gelding to be making just his second lifetime grass start at the age of six in such a huge stakes race (especially when the pedigree does not offer much hope for success) smacks of desperation).

8. First Premio: (Mark Casse/Miguel Mena) 8-1 ML

5 Year Old Horse by Pure Prize

TimeForm: 104 Early Pace/87 Late Pace

• Last Time Out: Basically a non-effort when finishing 10^th in the G3 Forbidden Apple going a mile over yielding turf at Saratoga back in July
  • Ran along an inside path early on, found himself behind a tiring foe at the top of the lane and then backed away without being fully asked (a rather odd effort though perhaps the soft ground had something to do with it)
  • Earned a 117 TF speed rating for his effort
• Saturday: Will be making his first start at KD in this race
  • Through 5 career tries at a mile, has only run second twice and it appears that perhaps he is better suited to going slightly longer
• Running Style: First Premio appears to be a pace-stalker although he does have good tactical speed and ability and can serve as a pace-presser if needed
  • Given the presence of several other runners in this field with better early speed, it is likely that Mena will take his charge back after the start and settle into that hybrid pace-pressing/stalking role whilst sitting no more than a few lengths off the initial leaders
  • However, as he lacks good closing ability, First Premio’s best chance at hitting the board would be to try and get first jump on the closers and pick off tiring rivals down the stretch (this appears to be a tall order for him to fulfill especially considering his lack of experience over this surface).
• Trainer/Jockey Stats & Workouts:
  • Casse Past 3 Years: 46-90 Days Away- 16/43 from 656
  • Mena Riding on Turf This Year: 7/27 from 203
  • Sharp 4F on August 23^rd at CD
• Ultimatum: TOSS (I’m just really not a fan of this horse as he does not appear to fit well into the pace scenario of this race and his record at the distance leaves much to be desired).

9. Mr. Cub: (Ian Wilkes/Brian Hernandez Jr) 8-1 ML

5 Year Old Gelding by Artie Schiller

TimeForm: 107 Early Pace/90 Late Pace

• Last Time Out: WON the $100K Kentucky Downs Preview Tourist Mile at Ellis Park on August 4^th
  • Sat in mid-pack early on and stalked the pace, moved into position to make a bid for the lead turning for home, commenced a long drive in the straight and just edged past Siem Riep at the wire
  • Earned a 122 TF speed rating
  • What makes this effort all the more impressive is that this was Mr. Cub’s first start since February 9^th when he was DQ’d to 5^th in the $100K El Prado Stakes at Gulfstream Park
• Saturday: This will be Mr. Cub’s fourth trip down to KD but over the course of his career he has won just once there (when he won a $140K Allowance there going a mile)
  • However, he has finished in the exacta in 5 of 7 tries at 8F including 4 wins
• Running Style: Mr. Cub appears to be at his best when racing as either a pace-presser or mid-pack stalker and does appear to have decent tactical ability and speed which should serve him well in this race
  • The TF PP suggests he will be amongst the first flight of runners stalking the early leaders in this race
  • Given the fact that Mr. Cub does not have great late speed, his best chance for any sort of in the money finish in this race is for Hernandez to keep him in contact with the leaders early on and then commence a bid for the lead at the top of the long stretch before the closers get rolling
  • Although he does not plot particularly well according to the OptixPlot for this race, Mr. Cub does have good finishing ability and if Hernandez can get him rolling late, this gelding will give it his all down the stretch and should be able to pick off many of his tiring rivals that don’t have enough stamina to survive the final ¼ mile of this race
• Trainer Stat:
  • Wilkes Past 3 Years: 2^nd Off the Layoff- 13/39 from 190
  • Winner Last Race: 17/48 from 232
• Ultimatum: USE UNDERNEATH (I was debating about making Mr. Cub my third selection in this field but in the end decided upon another runner; however, that is not to say that Mr. Cub does not have a shot in this race. I believe that Wilkes is getting this gelding hot at the right time and should have him ready to fire once again on Saturday and with another quality ride from Hernandez could end up surprising some by hitting the board at a decent price).

10. Great Wide Open: (Conor Murphy/James Graham) 10-1 ML

7 Year Old Gelding by Starspangledbanner

TimeForm: 124 Early Pace*/76 Late Pace

• Last Time Out: Finished 6^th in the G1 Maker’s 46 Mile Stakes at Keeneland on April 12^th
  • Pressed the pace from 2^nd early on, was widest through the backstretch, was in the 3 path at the ¼ pole and weakened late
  • Earned just a 117 TF speed figure for that effort
• Saturday: Returns to KD after a nearly five month layoff (141 days) and will look to try and build upon his second place effort in this race last year in which he lost by just a length
  • However, over the course of his career, Great Wide Open has not run well when contesting eight furlongs as he has won just once in six tries here in the United States and only finished in the money two other times
• Running Style: For Great Wide Open there is only one running style (unless he does not break well out of the gates) and that’s to go straight to the lead and attempt to take each and every field gate to wire, a feat he has pulled off twice in his last ten starts.
  • Now the TF PP (by virtue of awarding him the fastest Early Pace figure in the field) and the OptixPlot both suggest that Great Wide Open will rocket out of the gates on Saturday and take on the pace-setting duties immediately; prior to the scratch of Siem Riep, I was inclined to disagree with them but now I am in total agreement
    • Yet it should be noted that while GWO has been training well leading up to this event, he has not raced competitively in nearly five months so there is no way to know for sure how he will react when around other horses in the starting gates in a high intensity atmosphere (he also does not show any gate works since that last prior start so that is a bit concerning)
  • Thus it is quite likely that GWO should get out to an uncontested lead early on, though there are several runners in this field in the likes of First Premio, Mr. Cub and Real Story that should keep him to task (they’re not nearly as fast as GWO at least not as fast early on but they should be able to apply enough pace pressure initially that the fractions being set forth are moderate to swift).
• Trainer/Jockey Stats & Workouts: 
  • Murphy Past 3 Years: 90+ Days Away- 13/38 from 48
  • Graham Riding on Turf Past Year- 12/36 from 227
  • Sharp last two works over the training track at CD 
• Ultimatum: TOSS (In the end, I sincerely doubt that Great Wide Open is going to be cranked up enough for this race to even have a chance at finishing in the money as it seems likely that this race is merely being used as a prep for a possible run in the Shadwell Turf Mile in October. I do not believe that the “five month freshening” that he was given will be to his advantage as the lack of facing actual competition for so long could end up hurting his chances and given the fact that he has never tried to return to racing following such a long layoff, it remains to be seen whether or not this gelding will even be able to give a good account of himself on Saturday. Finally, given that he has displayed a running style that is pretty much akin to being a “need to lead” type coupled with the presence of several other runners possessing similar running styles, this does not bode well for his chances at all and could result in him becoming embroiled in a speed duel at some point during the course of the race or at least being pressured into setting swifter fractions than he is comfortable doing).

11. Real Story (Ignacio Correas IV/Joe Bravo) 10-1 ML

4 Year Old Gelding by Fast Bullet

TimeForm: 113 Early Pace/74 Late Pace

• Last Time Out: WON the 8.5F $100K Warrior Veterans Stakes over firm going at Indiana Grand on July 13^th
  • Broke alertly from the gates, was the clear leader early on, repulsed a bid at the 3/16^ths pole, drew off and was kept to task down the stretch to win comfortably by 3 lengths
  • Earned a 119 TF speed rating for his efforts
  • This performance followed up a solid effort back on May 18^th in the G2 Dixie Stakes going 8.5F at Pimlico in which Real Story tried to take the field in gate to wire fashion but was collared by Catholic Boy in the deep stretch and ended up finishing 4^th beaten by less than a length
• Saturday: This race will mark Real Story’s first venture down to Kentucky Downs and it will be just his third attempt at the one mile distance (he has won and run second in his two other tries at 8F).
  • Now just glancing at his pedigree would suggest that even a mile might be too far for this gelding but last year with Joe Bravo aboard, Real Story won the G3 American Derby going gate to wire at Arlington Park so if anything, it will be the unique configuration of the turf course at KD rather than the distance that presents any issues for Real Story
• Running Style: As mentioned earlier, Real Story is one of two runners in this field that have been awarded the E8 designation by Brisnet. Over the course of 8 of his last 10 efforts, Real Story has been on the lead from the get go. However, in this field, his early speed figures just are not nearly as fast as those of Great Wide Open which is likely why both the TF PP and the OptixPlot have positioned him second in the pace scenario for this race early on
  • Given that this gelding lacks the early gas of GWO who is drawn to his inside this presents a rather precarious situation for Bravo. If Bravo elects to try and make the front and keep pace with the likes of GWO, Real Story will likely wear himself out and be a complete non-factor after the opening half mile. However, the only other alternative then is for Real Story to take back and rate, a feat that he has yet to attempt and thus it is unknown as to how well he will respond to Bravo restraining him early on and trying to ration his speed.
    • Now OptixPlot does suggest that this gelding does have fairly good finishing ability and if he can manage to somehow successfully rate on Saturday and avoid becoming engaged in a speed duel on the front end, then Bravo should have him in an ideal position turning for home to make a bid for the lead before the closers start runs of their own
    • The scratch of Siem Riep a day before this year’s edition of the Tourist Mile is scheduled to go off does certainly complicate things as it means that now with GWO likely inheriting pace-setting duties, the role of chief pace-presser will fall to Real Story (if he wants to take up that mantle). But once again it is of vital importance that Bravo remain level-headed throughout the early stages of the race and not get goaded into engaging in a speed duel with GWO on the front end. Rather he needs to sit back and only take over the lead when the opportunity presents itself or when it appears that GWO is beginning to falter earlier than expected.
• Trainer/Jockey Stats & Workouts:
  • Correas Past 3 Years: 46-90 Days Away- 14/37 from 114
  • Bravo Riding on Turf Past Year: 9/37 from 172
  • Real Story shows several solid works over the Polytrack at Arlington Park back at the beginning and middle of August
• Ultimatum: SECOND CHOICE (For Real Story to have a successful Saturday is contingent upon two things: first and foremost, he needs to be able to rate and not try and dictate the pace up front; second, he needs to be able to adapt well to the European-style turf course that exists at Kentucky Downs. If Real Story and Joe Bravo can accomplish both of these tasks, then this gelding has a definite chance at making a splash in this race and while he may not win, a board finish is certainly well within his abilities).

12. Majestic Eagle: (Neil Drysdale/Adam Beschizza) 10-1 ML

4 Year Old Colt by Medaglia d’Oro

TimeForm: 82 Early Pace/107 Late Pace

• Last Time Out: Finished 6^th in the G2 Del Mar Mile Handicap on August 18^th
  • Was well back early on, swung 4 wide turning into the lane and then made a late bid to improve position
  • Nearly matched his career best when earning a 118 TF speed rating
• Saturday: This will be Majestic Eagle’s first foray down to KD; however, it will be his seventh attempt at one mile, a distance in which he has compiled a record of 6-1-3-1
  • This colt will be receiving some serious class relief though as he drops down in class from a G2 to a Listed Stakes, although the rather short turnaround could be a bit problematic.
• Running Style: Majestic Eagle’s primary running style is that of a closer and given his lack of early speed, he figures to be towards the rear of the field early on.
  • Also considering that he is drawn out the second widest in the field this post position should suit his running style just fine as he will likely try and make up ground on his rivals once the field hits the top of the stretch
  • OptixPlot suggests that he has decent but not great finishing ability, although he does plot well given the projected fast initial pace for this race.
  • If Beschizza can position Majestic Eagle closer to the pace (similar to how he was slotted early on in the G3 American Stakes, two starts back, then this colt might have a better chance at finishing in the money in this race).
• Trainer/Jockey Stats:
  • Drysdale Past 3 Years: Shipping In- 16/35 from 77
  • Beschizza Riding on Turf Past Year: 14/40 from 250
• Ultimatum: TOSS (I am not in love with the fact that Drysdale is wheeling this colt back after a disappointing effort just 13 days ago and shipping him in from California to run as well. Also considering that this Majestic Eagle has never run before over this turf course and has only won once before going a mile, it makes me even less inclined to endorse his chances in this race).

13. Rare Form (Dale Romans/Martin Chuan) 20-1 ML

4 Year Old Colt by The Factor

TimeForm: 122 Early Pace/76 Late Pace

• Last Time Out: WON a $40K OC race going a mile on the dirt at Ellis Park on August 4^th in gate to wire fashion
  • Earned a career best 114 TF speed rating
• Saturday: This will be Rare Form’s first career start not only at KD, but also against stakes company and this will be just his second career start on the grass
  • Although this colt has made three career attempts at one mile in which he has finished in the exacta in two of them, none of those efforts have been on the turf
  • His pedigree, at least the sire/grandsire portion of it does suggest that he should have no issues making the transition in surfaces
• Running Style: Rare Form’s running style is a bit muddied through his first 8 career starts as he has run not only as a pace-setter but also as a pace-presser and a stalker and a closer.
  • In his lone prior turf effort, he ran as a hybrid sort of pace-presser/stalker so perhaps that will be the style he employs on Saturday
  • However, he does appear to possess very good early speed (in fact he has the second fastest TF EP figure amongst the entire field) and given his far outside post draw, it would be no surprise to see Chuan gun it breaking from the gates and try and duel with Great Wide Open on the front end early on
• Trainer/Jockey Stats & Workouts:
  • Romans Past 3 Years: Dirt to Turf- 8/26 from 133
  • Chuan Riding for Romans Over the Past 60 Days- 24/52 from 21
  • Bullet 4F work at CD on August 25^th
• Ultimatum: USE UNDERNEATH (The scratch of Siem Riep precipitated Rare Form’s entry into this race and while it is a very tall order to ask of this colt to give a good account of himself against stakes competition in just his second career grass start, he might be able to pull it off. Rare Form while a bit of a wild card in this field should warrant inclusion in exotic wagers especially if he remains near his morning line odds).