Race of the Week Preview: Rebel
Saturday March 16th: Race 10 at Oaklawn Park. The $750,000 Grade 2 Rebel Stakes run at 1 1/16 miles on the dirt for three year olds. (Post Time: 7:06 PM EDT).
Joseph Wulffe
Twitter: @Whtnbourbonguy
Inaugurated back in 1961, the Rebel Stakes was originally run as a Handicap; however, it is better known as being one of the key prep races on the Road to the Kentucky Derby for three year olds. Since its inauguration it has been run at its current distance of eight and a half furlongs. Jockey Mike Smith has won the Rebel a record four times with his first win coming back in 1986 whilst his most recent victory (and actually only one in this century) came in 2014 aboard Hoppertunity. Trainer Bob Baffert currently holds the record for most wins in this race with six and in fact all those wins have come since 2010 with his most recent winner being Cupid back in 2016. Three horses that won the Rebel- Sunny’s Halo (1983), Smarty Jones (2004), and American Pharoah (2015)- have gone on to win the Kentucky Derby while only American Pharoah has completed the ultimate test of champions by winning the Triple Crown (in fact American Pharoah made his three year old debut in the Rebel). The Rebel Stakes was originally intended to have a purse of $1 Million available this year and initially had offered 50-20-10-5 Kentucky Derby points to the top four finishers in the race. However, due to the current issues surrounding the track surfaces at Santa Anita and the decision to cancel its major prep race, the San Felipe (G2) that was scheduled to be run last weekend, Oaklawn Park stepped up and offered to host two divisions of the Rebel. A total of 19 horses have signed on to contest this year’s edition of the Rebel (9 runners in the 1st Division and 10 runners in the 2nd Division) and although the overall purse was increased to $1.5 Million that amount will be split equally between the two divisions. Additionally, the total amount of Kentucky Derby points for each race will be awarded at 75% of their initial value (37.5-15-7.5-3.75) instead. So without further ado, let’s dive on in and preview the second of the two Rebel Divisions (the “Game Winner Division”).
1. Market King: [Into Mischief-A.P. Indy; D. Wayne Lukas/John Velazquez; 30-1; 6-1-1-1]
This son of Into Mischief would need to make a serious step up in class on Saturday to even have a chance at being competitive against this field. While his lone victory did come in a eight and a half furlong race at Oaklawn back in early February, that was against $77K Maidens and the 96 TimeForm speed rating he earned for that effort is woefully slow compared to some of his rivals. As the majority of his past efforts have come whilst sprinting and given the fact that he does possess good early speed, expect Velazquez to send Market King from along the rail and have him involved in dictating the pace early on. However, cannot endorse this one given the quality of the field he faces. TOSS
2. Laughing Fox: [Union Rags-Stormy Atlantic; Steve Asmussen/Ricardo Santana Jr; 10-1; 4-2-0-0]
One of four entrants in this race for Asmussen, this colt has the best chance of the bunch at making some noise in this race. He broke his maiden here at Oaklawn back at the end of January when chasing a slow early pace over a mile and a sixteenth, an effort in which he earned an 83 TimeForm speed rating. However, he followed that performance up with another win over the same track and distance last month when chasing after a much swifter initial pace in a $75K Optional Claiming race. That effort was good enough to earn him a 115 TimeForm speed rating. Although the jump in speed figures from the maiden win to the optional claiming win is quite high, keep in mind that the first race was run quite slowly whilst the most recent effort was quite swift early on and as such likely influenced how the speed figures were crafted. Laughing Fox’s running style is that of a pace-stalker/closer and as it appears that running style is fairly adaptable depending upon pace, he should fit into this race quite well given the expected fast initial pace. If Laughing Fox can handle the major step up in class on Saturday as well as continue to improve, then he certainly has the ability to score an upset in this field or at the very least hit the board at a decent price. LIVE LONGSHOT
3. Parsimony: [Dominus-Lil E. Tee; Doug O’Neill/Mario Gutierrez; 30-1; 7-0-4-0]
Not entirely sure why O’Neill entered this colt into this race as he has yet to break his maiden and multiple tries both when sprinting and routing as well as when racing on the grass and the dirt have yielded a mixed bag of results. His most recent TimeForm speed rating of a 109 came when routing on the grass and it is not quite clear what will happen when he transitions back to a route on the dirt. This year he has shown some ability to stalk the pace, but it appears that he simply is not at the same class level as many of his rivals in this field. TOSS
4. Jersey Agenda: [Jersey Town-Dynaformer; Steve Asmussen/Jose Ortiz; 15-1; 4-2-1-0]
This colt is quite fast and will be expected to make the front and dictate the pace from the get go in this race. Although he has been successful in taking several of his races in near gate to wire fashion, when he tried that tactic last time out in the Southwest Stakes (G3), the strategy backfired on him almost immediately as he was quickly caught in the early stages of the race and then faded down the stretch. There are several other runners entered into this field that also possess good early speed and will likely be forwardly placed as well, thus Jersey Agenda may find himself in a contentious pace battle on the front end immediately after breaking from the gates. The 110 TimeForm speed rating that he earned in his gate to wire optional claiming victory puts him on the fringes of being competitive in this field but ultimately it seems he will likely succumb once again to heavy pace pressure unless he gets a clear and uncontested lead from the get go (which appears to be incredibly unlikely). TOSS
5. Game Winner: [Candy Ride-A.P. Indy; Bob Baffert/Joel Rosario; 4/5; 4-4-0-0]
The other big name from the Baffert barn that has shipped East for this race, Game Winner has not been seen since winning the Breeders’ Cup Juvenile (G1) in impressive fashion at the beginning of last November. He already owns two victories whilst contesting eight and a half furlongs against Grade 1 stakes company and if he can build upon the 118 and 114 TimeForm speed ratings he earned in those efforts, then he could easily dominate this field. However, Game Winner has not been seen in 134 days and since then the BC Juvenile has come back quite weak as a number of the horses that he beat in that race have had poor starts to their three year old campaigns. Yet he has been training quite well as of late for Baffert and his off the pace running style should suit him well in this field. Obviously it remains to be seen if he will need this race before getting back into peak form, though as he already has accrued 30 points towards the Kentucky Derby a third or fourth place effort might be good enough to get him into the starting gates on May 4th. The 4/5 Morning Line odds do suggest that he should be used only for defensive purposes in this race as well as in multi-race wagers as there simply isn’t any value present. WIN CONTENDER
6. Omaha Beach: [War Front-Seeking the Gold; Richard Mandella/Mike Smith; 7/2; 5-1-3-1]
The initial decision to campaign this son of War Front on the turf made sense from a pedigree standpoint though when his first three efforts yielded only in the money finishes but no wins, the connections decided to transition Omaha Beach to the dirt and in his second start on the surface, he absolutely dominated a field of $55K Maidens. This Saturday though will certainly mark a serious step up in class for this young colt, although if he can improve upon the 118 TimeForm speed rating he earned in that seven furlong effort over a sloppy track, then he will be a serious contender in this race. His running style of a pace-presser should fit in quite well into the projected pace scenario for this race as he will likely try and rate off of the initial leaders early on before moving up to bid for the lead as the field enters the final turn. It is a bit perplexing to see Flavien Prat hop off of Omaha Beach as he had ridden him in all five of his past starts but his replacement is the more than capable Mike Smith (who in fact hops off Gunmetal Gray to ride this colt instead). Without question, Omaha Beach needs to prove he can handle this class test in order to have any shot of making it into the Derby but it does appear he has a decent chance of spoiling the 2019 debut for Game Winner. WIN CONTENDER
7. Our Braintrust: [Freud-Trust n Luck; Mark Casse/David Cohen; 6-1; 5-2-2-1]
Since having been narrowly beaten out for both first and second in the Withers (G3) last month at Aqueduct, that race has come back incredibly weak as both the second and fourth place finishers ran quite poorly in their next efforts in the Gotham (G3) and Tampa Bay Derby (G2) respectively. Although Our Braintrust did earn a sizzling 121 TimeForm speed rating for his performance in the Withers, whether or not he regresses off of that effort remains to be seen. He is cutting back in distance today (in fact he is the only runner in both fields to cut back in distance from a previous effort on dirt) and when combined with the fact that he will be likely be forwardly placed in this field and rating just off of the initial leaders, his chances of hitting the board are quite good. It is also encouraging to see that Casse has acquired the services of Oaklawn’s leading rider in Cohen to ride and if Our Braintrust can remain near his Morning Line odds of 6-1, then he will certainly offer some value to those wanting to use him in this race. USE UNDERNEATH
8. Gunmetal Gray: [Exchange Rate-Include; Jerry Hollendorfer/Flavien Prat; 10-1; 6-2-2-0]
The one true closer in this field, Gunmetal Gray comes into this race following an admirable second place effort in the Robert B Lewis Stakes (G3) over a sloppy eight and a half furlongs at Santa Anita last month in a race that certainly did not set up well for his closing running style. The 106 TimeForm speed rating he earned in that effort was the best of his three year old career but is actually quite slow compared to that of many of his rivals in this field. Gunmetal Gray should encounter an ideal pace set up in this race though for his late closing ability as there does appear to be enough early speed entered to set up swift initial fractions for him to chase after early on. It is a bit bizarre to see Smith hop off in favor of Omaha Beach and as a result have Prat pick up the mount as Prat has not ridden Gunmetal Gray since the BC Juvenile last November. Obviously this colt will need to take another step forward in order to be truly competitive on Saturday but given the back class he possesses it would be no surprise to see him running late down the stretch and at a very good price too. USE UNDERNEATH
9. Kaziranga: [Candy Ride-A.P. Indy; Steve Asmussen/Richard Eramia; 50-1; 6-1-1-0]
This colt is another one of those head-scratching entries for Asmussen as it does not appear that he fits into this race at all. His only effort this year was a disappointing fifth place finish in the optional claiming race that Laughing Fox won at Oaklawn last month. Although his TimeForm speed ratings have been steadily improving in each and every start, they are still quite slow when compared to those of the major contenders in this field. The outside post draw certainly does not do Kaziranga any favors and the running styles he has displayed over the course of his career are too varied to have a firm idea as to how he will run on Saturday. TOSS
10. Captain Von Trapp: [Trappe Shot-Dixie Union; Steve Asmussen/Ramon Vazquez; 15-1; 5-2-2-0]
This colt may be a bit more talented than his stablemate drawn to his inside but it certainly is questionable as to why he was entered into this race, especially considering he ran just two weeks ago. Additionally, his past efforts and pedigree suggest that ultimately he may be better suited to sprinting going forward. The major step up in class and far outside draw do not help his chances one iota and as such Captain Von Trapp cannot be endorsed in this spot . TOSS