Race of the Week Preview: Risen Star
Saturday February 16th: Race 12 at Fair Grounds. The $400,000 Grade 2 Risen Star Stakes presented by Lamarque Ford run at 1 1/16 miles on the dirt for three year olds. (Post Time: 7:02 PM EDT).
Joseph Wulffe
Twitter: @Whtnbourbonguy
On Saturday, February 16th, Fair Grounds Race Course down in New Orleans, Louisiana will host the second of its three major Kentucky Derby prep races with qualifying points on a scale of 50-20-10-5 available to the top four finishers in the race. A full field of 14 runners and one also eligible is set to contest the eight and a half furlong distance, although it should be noted that the Bob Baffert trainee, Kingly, is likely to scratch from the race as he is also drawn into the field for the nine furlong $100,000 El Camino Real Derby also held on Saturday at Golden Gate Fields. The Risen Star Stakes was inaugurated back in 1973 as the Louisiana Derby Trial Stakes. It was eventually renamed in 1989 to honor locally owned runner Risen Star who had won the 1988 edition of the race and then went on to capture both the Preakness Stakes (G1) and the Belmont Stakes (G1) after finishing third in the Kentucky Derby (G1). For his efforts in 1988 (along with wins in both the Grade 3 Louisiana Derby and Grade 2 Lexington Stakes prior to his Derby performance) Risen Star was bestowed with the Eclipse Award for American Champion Three-Year-Old Male Horse. A horse that has won the Risen Star has never gone on to win the Kentucky Derby; however, it has produced a bevy of well-known runners that went on to capture multiple other graded stakes races throughout the course of their career, most notably 2013 Breeders’ Cup Classic winner Mucho Macho Man who won the 2011edition of the race as well as 2017 Horse of the Year honoree Gun Runner who won in 2016. Since 1995 both D. Wayne Lukas and Todd Pletcher have won this race three times, with Lukas capturing the most recent edition with Bravazo. Of the trainers with runners in this year’s field, Steve Asmussen has won this race twice during that time period, while both Dallas Stewart and Mike Maker have won the race once.
The field for this year’s renewal of the Risen Star may be the most competitive Kentucky Derby prep race thus far as not only will there be a full field of 14 three-year-olds competing for major qualifying points but also this race features six of the contenders from the Lecomte Stakes (G3) held last month at Fair Grounds as well as five other runners that are shipping in from out of state. Trainers Dallas Stewart, Mike Maker and Steve Asmussen will each send out two runners from their barns to contest the eight and a half furlongs on Saturday. This race is quite intriguing in that not only does the winner of the Lecomte Stakes return in the (14) War of Will but the second (6) Hog Creek Hustle, third (7) Manny Wah, fifth (1) Plus Que Parfait, sixth (4) Chase the Ghost, and seventh-place finishers (2) Roiland all return as well. Additionally, several highly touted colts, most notably the (8) Owendale and the (9) Country House, are set to make their stakes debut on Saturday. All in all this year’s edition of the Risen Star Stakes should be quite interesting to watch.
The main question surrounding this race deals with the Morning Line favorite, War of Will. Trained by Mark Casse, this son of War Front out of a Sadler’s Wells mare has the ideal pedigree for being successful on the grass. However, early on in his career, that was not the case as his best finish came in a second place effort in the Summer Stakes (G1) up at Woodbine last September. Then in November, Casse make the decision to switch surfaces to dirt and War of Will rewarded his connections by romping through the slop at Churchill Downs against a field of $76K Maidens. He then further demonstrated that he was not just a turf course and proved his naysayers wrong by coasting to an easy fourth length victory in the Lecomte Stakes last month here at Fair Grounds. War of Will paired up both of those efforts with 94 Bris Speed Ratings (BSRs) which are tied for not only the second highest last out speed figure but also the second highest speed figure for Saturday’s distance. War of Will does appear to be the one to beat in this field although his chances were certainly not helped by the poor post draw as he is marooned on the far outside and will have to break from the 14 hole. With a moderately short run up to the first turn on the main track at Fair Grounds, his jockey, Tyler Gaffalione, will likely have to hustle his mount out of the gates in order to establish position and avoid being caught wide going through that first turn. However as there are only a few other runners in this field that have shown good early speed in past efforts and that like to be forwardly placed, establishing position early on such that War of Will can be most effective using his tactical speed may not be quite as difficult as it initially appears. If Gaffalione can give War of Will an ideal trip and allow him to stalk the pace rather than serve as pace-setter, then this may be War of Will’s race to lose.
Of the other runners exiting the Lecomte, only the second place finisher, Hog Creek Hustle, intrigues in this spot. Trained by Vickie Foley and ridden again on Saturday by Florent Geroux, this son of Overanalyze ran quite well to be able to finish second in the Lecomte especially since he was quite wide throughout the latter stages of the race and he was racing on a track that was very speed friendly. While his first effort at a two-turn route in the Iroquois Stakes (G3) last September at Churchill Downs left much to be desired, that second time stretching out to a two-turn route in the Lecomte produced a much different result as Hog Creek Hustle earned a 90 BSR for his efforts. Going forward, the slight increase in distance should be no issue for him to handle. Now it appears that nearly half of the field for this race prefer to run either as mid-pack stalkers or closers and Hog Creek Hustle is amongst that lot. Thus in order to have a chance at hitting the board or possibly even scoring an upset on Saturday, Hog Creek Hustle will need to have some swift early fractions to run after otherwise his ability to close well late may be severely compromised as the entire field could still be fresh turning for home if the initial pace is dawdling. Positioning early on will be crucial for Geroux and Hog Creek Hustle as nearly all of the runners drawn to his inside employ similar closing running styles and thus Geroux will need to ensure that his mount has a clear running lane as the field enters the final turn such that he can easily move past rivals without having to expend too much energy weaving through traffic. It should be noted that of the six runners from the Lecomte that have entered into this field, Hog Creek Hustle’s Brisnet Late Pace figure of a 103 was surpassed only by War of Will’s 106. If Hog Creek Hustle remains around his 8-1 Morning Line odds, then he certainly will offer value in this race and must be considered for use in all exotic wagers.
Amongst the field that is not exiting the Lecomte, three new runners are quite interesting and are certainly worthy of being mentioned here in this piece. The first is the Brad Cox trainee, Owendale, a son of Into Mischief who comes into this race following a solid win over a good rated 1 mile and 70 yards here at Fair Grounds in January against a field of $50K Optional Claimers. Although he won by just a length and a half, he earned a 96 BSR for that effort (which in fact ranks as the highest last out speed figure as well as the highest speed figure for Saturday’s distance) and he beat rivals Frolic More and Gun It, whom he will face again on Saturday. Shaun Bridgmohan who has been off to a hot start thus far at Fair Grounds and has ridden Owendale for five of his first six starts, will once again be in the irons for Cox. Additionally, Owendale has finished in the exacta at Fair Grounds in both of his two efforts over the main track and thus that familiarity with the surface could work to his benefit. With excellent early speed, look for Owendale to break well from the get go and either be setting the initial fractions or rating just off of the early pacesetters. If it appears that there is a distinctive speed bias to the track after the first couple of races, Owendale will certainly be one to consider for use in all wagers, especially exotics. If this colt can handle the step up in class to stakes company then he looms as a legitimate threat to War of Will in this race.
Another new runner to consider in this field comes out of the barn of Bill Mott. Country House, a son of Lookin at Lucky, has yet to move beyond the maiden level of racing so Saturday’s effort will be a major test of his ability. However, two starts back in a one turn mile race last December at Aqueduct against a field of $70K Maidens, Country House ran quite well and closed like a freight train down the stretch, just narrowly missing first by half a length. The horse that he lost to in that effort was none other than Kentucky Wildcat, who just finished second in last weekend’s Sam F. Davis Stakes (G3) at Tampa Bay. In his most recent effort, Country House faced off against a field of $50K Maidens going eight and a half furlongs last month at Gulfstream Park and absolutely torched that field down the stretch. Although he broke slowly from the gates in that race, he displayed an absolutely incredible turn of foot at the top of the stretch that not only earned him a 123 Brisnet Late Pace figure but also the comment of “impressive” in the chart for the race. It is somewhat remarkable that Country House was able to close so well given the fact that while the pace in front of him was pressured it was not particularly fast; this bodes well for repeated success going forward especially if he encounters a similar pace scenario on Saturday. While the 91 BSR he earned for that performance is a tad slow compared to some of the recent speed figures earned by his rivals in this field, Saturday will be just the fourth start of his career and if he can continue to improve going forward, then he certainly has the looks of a contender in this race. Two things to note regarding Country House though. First and foremost, as he is one of a multitude of closers in this field, his jockey, Luis Saez, will need to ensure that he gets a good clean trip such that he has ample running room to unleash that explosive turn of foot he displayed in his most recent effort. Secondly, even though Country House is listed at 20-1 on the Morning Line, that price is a complete pipe dream as there is absolutely no way that he will remain even close to those odds given how visually impressive that last race was for him. Somewhere in the range of 4-1 to 8-1 is much more likely but even so Country House’s ability must be respected and he is a definite inclusion in all exotic as well as multi-race wagers.
Finally one other runner that most be mentioned briefly is Limonite. One of two runners in the field for trainer Steve Asmussen, this son of Lemon Drop Kid has not been since a solid third place effort behind Signalman and Plus Que Parfait in the Kentucky Jockey Club (G2) run over a sloppy eight and a half furlongs at Churchill Downs last November. Recency could be an issue for this colt but it appears that Asmussen has been working him quite well over the main track at Fair Grounds and he should be in good form coming into this race. Additionally, although Asmussen’s primary jockey, Ricardo Santana Jr, had ridden Limonite in all four of his prior starts, Santana hops off to ride Asmussen’s other runner, Gun It, on Saturday. However, his replacement is the more than capable Brian Hernandez Jr who actually won the 2017 edition of the Risen Star with Girvin. As yet another one of a bevy of closers in this field, positioning and a clean trip will be essential for Limonite and Hernandez as this colt will certainly need fast initial fractions and ample space to be able to unleash his closing kick down the stretch if the connections have any aspirations of him hitting the board on Saturday. His speed figures from last year are fairly slow compared to those of his rivals and thus he will have to improve quite a bit in order to be truly competitive here but at 10-1 on the Morning Line and with the potential to be overlooked this colt is worthy of inclusion in any and all exotic wagers. All in all this year’s edition of the Risen Star appears to be an incredibly competitive prep race for the Kentucky Derby and offers excellent potential as a solid betting race.