Race 1: Maiden Special Weight, 3yo and up, Fillies and Mares, PA-bred, 5 1/2 Furlongs
2- Lady Munnings (Sheppard/Pino): Ran some huge figures over the winter on the turf at Gulfstream Park. In fact, the worst figure of her career is nine points better than anyone else has ever run in their life. She has this field at her mercy.
1- Cozar’s Queen (Russell/Villa-Gomez): Raced well last year after showing speed and fading each time out. Workouts coming in here have been solid, but faces an absolute buzzsaw first off the bat. Have to wait and see.
3- Jamaican Me Happy (Cheeks/Walker): Lightly-worked firster might need a few races. I don’t think she’ll exactly freak first off the bench.
1A- She’s Here to Party (Russell/R. Allen): Tries state-bred maidens for the first time. Like her entrymate, she has early speed and is coming off a long layoff. A good underneath candidate.
4- Paolla’s Heart (Sheppard/Spieth): The “other” Sheppard in the field, this firster has been working sharply at Delaware Park, dialing up the speed in her last few works. She’s a candidate for a big one first time out.
5- One Smart Caller (Heinen/Fox): Mountaineer invader has had seventeen tries to break her maiden, and has never gotten it done. I doubt time #18 will be any better.
TOP PICKS: 2-4-1/1A
Race 2: Maiden Claiming $6,250, 3yo and up, Fillies and Mares, 1 Mile
1- Phil’s Babe (Stokes/Gallardo): Didn’t do too badly when stretching out for the first time at Laurel Park last out. Runs for trainer Lance Stokes for the first time, and picks up Gallardo for her local debut. She’s run just three times, and has shown consistently good form (relatively speaking).
2- Enticing Haven (Martin/R. Allen): Soundly beaten in two tries at Oaklawn Park, but had a good work in her first drill over the track. Would still need sharp improvement.
3- Timberline Lodge (Dickey/Vickers): Stopped after some brief foot in all of her starts, and hasn’t yet run a race that would win this one.
4- Barb’s Gray Girl (Santangelo/Martinez): If she runs back to her recent dirt form, she’s going to be tough to beat. If she duplicates her turf form, forget about it. Her figures are vastly superior to the rest on that surface.
5- Lovely Arabella (Valls/Walker): Did absolutely nothing in two races on turf at Tampa Bay Downs, but now takes a sharp drop. She’s lightly raced and improved sharply second time out.
6- Bilberry Champ (Stabile/Dominguez): Well-beaten in two career starts, and not much reason to believe the third will be any better.
TOP PICKS: 4-5-1
Race 3: Claiming $5,000, 3yo and up, Fillies and Mares, 1 Mile
1- Miss Radar (Rojas/Dominguez): Didn’t show her usual early speed in her last two races at Penn National, and wasn’t much of a factor in either one. Eddie Dominguez gets aboard for the first time; it’ll be interesting to see how aggressive he is with her.
2- My Solitude (Hoffman/Delgado): Has had two races since coming off the bench, and wilted after showing brief speed both times.
3- Jilted Runaway (Brooks/Gallardo): Faced a pretty salty open claiming field last out at Laurel, and was subsequently thrashed. Workouts since then have been sharp, including a bullet workout here two back. Form over the winter was good, headlined by a gate-to-wire win three back where she earned a figure of 77.
4- Sacred Canyon (Ferraro/Rodriguez): Her form has been very spotty, but when she’s on, she runs figures in the mid to upper-70s, which are good enough to win this race. Did well against similar over the winter, but struggled when facing open claimers in her last few. Dropping back to the conditioned level should help.
5- Fell From Grace (Tabbutt/Villa-Gomez): Has the best recent figures in the field by far, but hasn’t raced since November 30. She’ll also be coming from way out of it in a small field, possibly putting her at a pace disadvantage.
TOP PICKS: 3-5-4
Race 4: Claiming $5,000, 3yo and up, 5 1/2 Furlongs
1- Total Futbol (Brooks/Walker): Form was starting to decline near the end of the year, and now comes first off the bench. A little suspect.
2- The Fazz Man (Radosevich/Gallardo): Speedball was huge four-wide in a 4 1/2 furlong race at Mountaineer last out, essentially removing all chance of winning. With an inside post and a longer run into the turn, should be in much better shape.
3- Salsa Lane (Bowersock/R. Allen): Was in steady form all winter long at Tampa Bay Downs, but historically has trouble getting into the winners circle. Still, the figures are consistent enough to merit respect.}
4- Rambo Red (LeCesse/Rodriguez); If he gets to the early lead, he’s in good shape. If he can’t, forget it. With The Fazz Man drawn to his inside, he’ll have to be used hard to get to the lead.
5- Black Pearl (A Rice/Ayala): Ohio invader has been a total non-factor in his last five starts.
6- Princetonian (Brooks/M. Allen): Scored back-to-back wins at Presque Isle against similar near the end of last year’s meet. Started to go off form at Turfway Park over the winter, and received a bit of freshening. Will he return as the same horse?
7- Legacy Azteca (DePasquale/Morales): He raced extremely well for most of the Presque Isle meet last year, running figures in the high 70s consistently. However, he was dismal in his last start of the meet, and has been off since then. Which version of him shows up here? If it’s the old version, it’ll be a handy win.
TOP PICKS: 7-3-2
Race 5: Claiming $6,250 (n/w3L), 3yo and up, 6 Furlongs
1- Whatdoistandfor (Rozantz/Dominguez): Drops in class first off the layoff, and has some of the best late pace figures in the field. Should be heard from late.
2- Dobby Hasno Master (K Rice/Vickers): This speedy gelding laid two eggs over the winter in Florida. After a sound defeat at Tampa Bay, he got a brief freshening, and has been working strongly since then. He should be used aggressively to the lead.
3- Red Angry Bird (Hoffman/Morales): Another early speed threat, he wired a n/w2L claiming group in December at Tampa Bay, but outside of that, he’s consistently wilted after showing speed.
4- J’s Flashy Halo (Bowersock/R. Allen): He’s won his last two races by stalking the pace and pouncing, while running superior speed figures to the rest. Looks tough.
5- Brockadoodle (Rojas/Ayala): He scratched out of a race on Monday to run here, but he’s got no chance here, either.
6- Texmageddon (Sharp/Walker): The trainer is 0-for-26 with horses first off a long layoff, and he’d have to improve by a lot to win anyway.
TOP PICKS: 4-2-1
Race 6: Starter Optional Claiming $32,000, 3yo and up, 1 Mile 70 Yards
1- Beyond Smart (Girten/Spieth): Won a stakes race here last year with a strong figure, then started to tail off as the races got longer and the company got tougher. Got a race in him at Tampa Bay last month, and has been working well coming in here.
2- Sea of Erin (Graham/Gallardo): He scored at 2 miles and 1 1/2 miles last year, so if anything, this race might be too short for him. I’m not sure if he’ll be totally cranked for this race; it’s possible that his people are looking at this as a prep for a spot down the road.
3- Vitium (Connelly/Ayala): Another marathon specialist, he wasn’t a factor on the grass over the winter, and hadn’t won in a while. A bit skeptical.
4- Navy Armed Guard (Scott/Delgado): He’s got backclass, but hasn’t yet run a race that matches up with the contender’s best.
5- Town Classic (Santangelo/Martinez): Hasn’t run worse than an 89 in last four races, while coming in the top two each time. Drops in class from allowance company at Woodbine, where he was a decent second after a wide trip. The one to beat.
6- Astute Warrior (Rodriguez/Morales): Two-for-two at Presque Isle, but that was awhile ago. His recent form has been on turf, and he was relatively unimpressive in those spots. Not easy to endorse.
TOP PICKS: 5-1-2
Race 7: Claiming $12,500, 3yo and up, Fillies and Mares, 5 1/2 Furlongs
1- Pursuit of Lute (Radosevich/Gallardo): Another one returning off an extended vacation. Trainer stats not great first off the layoff. Sports an impressive 14-for-19 in the money record over this track.
2- Merry Lady (Bourke/Walker): Speedy mare hit the board in seven of eight last year, but was always caught after setting the early pace. A great horse to key on the bottom of exactas, but I can’t endorse her as a win wager candidate.
3- Dave’s Texas Lady (Radosevich/R. Allen): She’s also got a lot of speed on paper, and won three turf sprints in a row in gate-to-wire fashion at the end of the year. She’ll have a hard time getting to the lead here, though.
4- Eddington’s Note (Martin/Morales): Always rates off the pace, and then falls short late. However, she’s going to have a lot of pace to close into here, so it could play right into her lap.
5- Little Miss May (Rojas/Ayala): Looks outclassed against this group.
TOP PICKS: 4-2-1
Race 8: Claiming $6,250 (n/w2L), 3yo and up, 1 Mile
2- Pintsize (Dimmett/Martinez): He’s lost his last six by double-digit lengths, and hasn’t run anything resembling a competitive figure recently.
3- Cactus Catch Me (Walsh/Delgado): Speedy gelding raced well here last year, but was outclassed at this level at Gulfstream Park. Should find things here more forgiving.
4- Johnny Junior (Connelly/M. Allen): Has been rounding into form as of late, with several good figures and three in-the-money finishes at Penn National recently. His late pace figures are also among the best in the race.
5- Swingstage (Gonzalez/Spieth): Beaten double-digits in seven of his last ten races. He’s also never hit the board at this level.
1- My People Sing (Gotera/Gallardo): Fairly lightly-raced three-year-old still has enough room for improvement, compared to the rest.
6- Quality Island (Cobb/Rodriguez): Has only lost twice at the level, but hasn’t raced since August. Workouts and trainer stats aren’t impressive.
7- Namarunu (Markgraf/Stanley): Former Casse trainee returns first off the layoff, and makes his first start off the turf. The Markgraf/Stanley trainer/jockey combo has had a good start to the meet.
1A- Go Harley Go (Gotera/Morales): Was on the decline for most of the meet at Tufway Park, and has struggled at the level numerous times.
TOP PICKS: 7-1-3