Thanks for checking out today’s analysis. Aside from this weekly article I offer daily free full card picks for Gulfstream Park as well as other tracks. Give me a follow on Twitter @mhjpicks. Saturday’s Gulfstream Park card offers us 12 puzzles to solve. Let’s get some winners!
Race 1
Looking to start today with a bang in a wide open maiden race. #5 Skyline View is 0 for 16, however takes blinkers off, which was a good move for this trainer with another from this barn, so it’s possible lightning strikes twice. He actually has some decent speed in comparison and Fuentes rode him well a couple back. This is just the type of race to take a shot on. The two likely favorites #2 Elite Mission and #7 Mozano are more logical winners but odds will be short.
Selections: 5-2-7
Race 2
#7 May I is second off the layoff (17% for Avila) and better suited for turf, which she tries again here today. She handled the distance last out with a nice effort and should improve upon that today. #5 Humor Me Dixie, who has a name that some people aren’t laughing at, is a viable contender off a bullet work and stretching out for Casse (9% first route) after hitting the gate last out and blowing any shot. #6 Starship Mallomar is getting closer to the elusive maiden win every race.
Selections: 7-5-6
Race 3
#5 Gran Brady drops to the lowest level here at GP. Barboza is 34% on drops like this and 27% off similar layoffs, which this horse drastically needed. Look for an improvement here. #7 Socially Astray just missed at a big price last out, but seems to always be in the mix so can’t ignore here. #2 Beast of Wildwood is dropping a couple classes which is a 25% angle for Walder.
Selections: 5-7-2
Race 4
Likely to be a chalky outcome here. #2 Hallajoori could get a lone speed set up here today, and even if not, should have enough to overcome a duel. #3 Mycrazyexgirlfriend faded last out, but could rebound nicely since that race had a couple of next out winners. #5 K’s Running Free is a first timer for Fawkes (14%) with Jaramillo, who is excellent on first timers.
Selections: 2-3-5
Race 5
This is a solid field of runners to close out the early pick 5. Many of these are similar and several could pop an effort. For that reason, I will look for a price with my top choice in #6 Passion Plus. She is second off for Sano and I think will be able to make a late bid since there is a decent amount of speed signed on. #3 Crown and Sugar exits a terrible race, however has been running well in better company aside from that effort. #8 Augusta Moon has burned me before, as well as several others as the beaten favorite in her last two efforts; yet she can’t be ignored.
Selections: 6-3-8
Race 6
#5 Win With Pride is an anchor selection for me here. He is off a nice win and has the best consistent speed of the group. I think he could win for fun, but the other horses entered are quality animals. #1 Running for Riz and #2 Zorb look to be the next ones up.
Selections: 5-1-2
Race 7
Back to back anchors for me with #6 Gran Michelle going for Barboza after a debut win in April. Barboza is 26% with horses off the maiden win; not to mention that race had a quality next out winner and others who have run well. An effort anywhere close to the maiden race and she should run away with it. Next up would be #3 Smartizar and #4 Mystic Comin Home.
Selections: 6-3-4
Race 8
Today’s late pick 5 could start off with a price in #3 Coming Up Roses showed regression in the second start, however was hampered by a bobble after hesitating to get going. It’s the kind of running line that gets a horse ignored, but in this case it could get a nice price on a horse primed for improvement. #9 Disturbin Bourbon got his maiden win after underachieving for several races, and looked very good in doing so. #7 Harper Go Lucky is a hard worker going for a new trainer who has had some early success.
Selections: 3-9-7
Race 9
The #10 Big Spender is first off the claim for D’Angelo who is a whopping 38% off the claim and 39% with last out winners. The outside post was the only thing preventing this horse from being an anchor as the speed and aforementioned angles look like a winning combination. #7 Earthquake showed some flashes in the past and has leveled off since, but could there be one waiting to come out? #6 Bolt is probably the most formidable challenge to #10 and should beat him to the pace, but I don’t have a lot of confidence in his jockey.
Selections: 10-7-6
Race 10
This is a fairly open race, with several who can get the job done. I look to #6 Elusive Ryder to make it 3 in a row. This horse has had an outstanding 2020 winning 5 of 8 races. Garcia hasn’t had much success at GP, but this horse could help him get a win today. #4 Classy of Course should be right on the pace with a couple of them, which could hurt her, but may also ignite that competitive fire. #1 Sensible Myth will sit behind them and look for a spot, which the crafty Panici is sneaky in these situations.
Selections: 6-4-1
Race 11
The Sea of Tranquility Stakes is a non-graded event which attracted several quality horses. #4 Kukulkan was at one time known as the Mexican wonder horse with an incredible 13 for 13 record down south. Racing here in the states has not proven to be as easy, however this horse has some quality wins at a similar level. The nice layoff should have helped freshen him up for a nice performance today. He should make the lead at about the halfway point and look to fight on through. #3 Harvey Wallbanger certainly has the late kick to be a factor here, but is pace compromised and needs a lot of speed to run into. #7 Identifier shocked in the G3 Hal’s Hope by winning at a huge price before getting pummeled in the G2 Oaklawn. Will enjoy the class relief but wonder if the best is behind him.
Selections: 4-3-7
Race 12
Today’s finale is an intriguing one. By going light elsewhere you could set yourself up for a deep race to close out multi-race tickets. My top nod will go to the 10 year old #4 I’m Cardinal who comes off a win and drops slightly here. To his inside is #2 Luckytobeinamerica who should be a decent price but has speed and has only been out of the money in 1 of 7 starts this year. #1 Diamond Mint draws the rail and should benefit from an aggressive ride by Trejos.
Selections: 4-2-1