Race 1: OC$25k 1 & 1/16thM Turf
1st: #9 Atreyu, think this is an excellent betting opportunity. Here’s a very sharp horse that won his first two races this year in July over at Del at the open $20k claimer condition going two turns on turf closing in from not too far off the lead earning two DRF Speed Rating’s of 100. Then stepped up in class but the race got taken off the turf and the horse was eased on the wet dirt. Was a monster last year on the turf over at Mountaineer. That eased running line last out will artificially inflate his odds and there is considerable pace in this race for him to have the chance to make a good run late.
2nd: #3 Hard Fought, was tough for me to choose against this one who is dropping in for a claiming tag today. He will be better harder off the drop in class than Atreyu, which was the X factor for me. Hard Fought has been racing exclusively in true Allowance/Optional Claiming races since last summer. His last three Beyer figures on races that stayed on turf all eclipsed 80. Today’s event is a Starter/Optional Claimer, a meaningful class distinction. Likes to run on or very close to the lead, like many in this race.
3rd: #10 Lucky Ramsey, horse is in great form coming off a win at this level up at Pen last out where he wasn’t favored and his running style sets him up well to make a late run.
Race 2: Clm $5k 1 & 1/16thM
1st: #3 Indian Ghost, in these low-level claiming races going two turns you have to look for horses that have some speed or at the very least have shown the ability to pass a few horses after stalking close to the pace. This one fits that bill perfectly and has shown very strong improvement over his past 3 races. I love the three back race at this distance taking control on the far turn and running away from the field. Distance should be no problem and is able to pass horses. Won last out in open claiming condition at 3-1 passing three horses going only 1 mile. Will improve given added distance.
2nd: #5 Glengar, can’t blame you if you land on this one. Two straight Beyer figures in the mid-60s including a win two back at slightly higher level. Last race a bit of a warning sign to me, was close up to the pace but couldn’t pass in open claiming company, although it was at the $7500 level.
3rd: #7 Battle Ready, should include this one in boxes, love the off-eased/bled angle. Was a winner at this level in the three back in March. Two efforts since the lockdown can draw a line through.
Race 3: MdClm $25k 1& 1/8thM Turf
1st: #5 Ballyhoo Prince, eaerned the best figure of his life when switching to the turf last out in open Md$40s at Colonial when he was sent away at 20-1 and beat 7 rivals to finish 2nd. Concerned about the distance a bit here but further improvement and more class relief will benefit him.
2nd: #9 Food and Wine, Glen Hill Farm/Tom Proctor usually do well with younger horses shipping to Laurel from Florida and Kentucky. This one performed decently at the MdSpWt level before dropping in to the claiming ranks and it wasn’t enough to get him the victory. The Beyer figs are holding pretty steady in the low to mid 60s not seeing much improvement.
3rd: #2 Compass Course, 30-1ML but I think that’s a definite overlay. He couldn’t handle the speed of a 5 & ½F sprint, but he obviously enjoyed switching to turf as evident by the Beyer. These are the types of horses who really jump up when given further ground, switching to 9F is going to be a big help. Will be overlooked.
Race 4: Clm $5k 6F
1st: #6 Talent, bottom level claimers sprinting here, it is essential to show early speed, either on the pace or stalking closely. This one was too far back in the most recent try, dropping 7 lengths behind early and as you can see was not able to make up all the ground. In the two back, however, he was close enough—only 2 lengths behind and rallied for the win. Picks up Trevor McCarthy to ride today who will not make the same mistake as Yomar Ortiz in the most recent. The Beyers likewise are trending in the right direction for this one.
2nd: #2 The Forty Factor, may be the lone speed in this one but he’s proven time and again that he cannot maintain his speed over 6F. He’ll have his chance at it though.
3rd: #3 Ticker Tape Parade, 4 consecutive mid-60s Beyers. Has some tactical speed.
Race 5: Clm $12.5k 1 & 1/8thM Turf
1st: #5 Minister’s Strike, likely post-time favorite although shouldn’t be an overwhelming favorite and maybe my best bet of the day. Has two wins in two tries over this Pimlico turf and routinely breaks 80 with his Beyers. A son of English Channel out of a Bernardini mare and ridden by Trevor McCarthy, he has all the breeding and connections you could ask for. At first glance the last looks a bit ugly, third place as the 4-5 favorite, but given an added 1/16th+ of distance to today’s 9F he would have easily gone past.
2nd: #8 Golden Spear, two tries in higher priced claimers in NY were good efforts, especially the three back 2nd place finish at Bel. 1 for 4 at this distance and gets a second try at this low level.
3rd: #9 Eldritch, won his last at this claiming level non-winners of 4 lifetime, a nice condition he suited. 0-4 lifetime at this distance.
Race 6: MdSpWt $40k 2 Year Old Fillies 6F
1st: #6 Out of Sorts, usually avoid debuters but Brittany Russell’s hitting at 35% with first time starters and a $3.05 ROI. This one earned a bullet drill breaking from the gate going 4F in 47 and 3, fastest of 37 that day. Sire was a G2 winner, dam has two older progeny, both of whom have won, including a multiple allowance winner.
2nd: #9 Closertotheheart, interesting that Motion wanted this one to try on turf first but the race got taken off. She ran decently enough finishing 3rd of 9 and earning a 42 Beyer. Likely to improve off that effort, one of the few in this field with experience. The mother won one time and was third in the Md Juvenile Fillies Championship.
3rd: #4 Danger Zone, the Elkstone Group’s homebred daughter by First Samurai will probably be slightly overlooked on the board. Kelly Rubley doesn’t do her best work with debuters but this one has a terrific breeze at Fair Hill on 9/11 going 48 and 2 from the gate, an elite workout for Rubley and Fair Hill breezers, fastest of 17 that day.
Race 7: Alw $42k 5F Turf
1st: #5 He’s One Wild Dude, there is so much speed in this field it’s impossible to pick a single winner among them. Going to go with this one who has increased his speed figures in each of the last three races and has shown a knack for sitting behind the eladers a few lengths and out finishing them in the stretch. That’s the exact type of trip he needs today. Horacio Karamanos is the type of wise jockey who will know the trip he needs.
2nd: #8 Grateful Bred, of the crazy quick ones in here, this one was ready for something big this summer but both of his tries got washed off the turf. He still managed a second on a muddy track, but they’ve been waiting for the turf. Looked like a possible future stakes horse when breaking his maiden against 9 rivals in July at 21-1 earning a 77 Beyer.
3rd: #7 Fly the W, if he doesn’t get caught up in a pace duel up front he should be a real threat here/ Just broke his maiden at Colonial and came from a couple lengths behind trailing an honest sprinting pace.
Race 8: MdClm $10k 1 & 1/16thM
1st: #3 Feature Act, not going to get cute here, this one is getting better and coming off three second place finishes. A bit of added distance will help him get the job done today.
2nd: #9 Galactic Slam, has made up lengths late multiple times in the past, should be able to pass some tired horses.
3rd: #6 Elusive Motion, trying two turns for the first time, has some speed but it hasn’t held up going only one turn previously.