Old Hilltop is calling me like she does every spring. Pimlico is the bastion of my degeneracy and she is my handicapping muse. She calls and I answer. Whether the toilets work, or whether she literally falls apart around me like my own manure and cigarette scented House of Usher means little to me. Great racing history and my roots are here. So while the political and financial battle wages, and while blame is cast about when all are to blame; I shall do as I always do and wager on the visiting bloodstock. Here’s some Thursday thoughts.
Race 1 Mile. (Turf) MC 25000 : I’m dead against the two ML favorites here and will only be using the three listed here in my pick 5 and my first pick 3 of the weekend. # 9 Souper Courage drops to his lowest level yet. In first turf try, flashed decent tactical speed before fading badly. Been working steadily since. May be well meant here and can stalk the inside speed. Bred for lawn running. Only problem may be price.#6 Big Rinne debuts for Hamilton Smith. Hat Trick kids go 14% first grass tries. Don’t love him, but don’t love anything else either. Should be a number. Same goes for #8 Telegram. Second lifetime start for Motion after a non-descript first run. Should be a price
Pick 3 Play: $10 6,8,9 / 4 / 3,9
Race 2
1ˆ Mile. TMClm 5000b : #4 Dear Charlotte is 2nd off the claim for Capuano and looks like she may actually be up to the mile and sixteenth distance. Decent finish in last closing into no pace after a bump at the start. Single in the picks.#2 Donnas Delight got a mile and an eighth whilst on a leisurely lead two back. Won’t get that setup here, but may come along for a piece at a price.I’m against Claudio and his ML favorite Natasha Fatale despite his numbers second off the claim and the class drop. Don’t trust her around two turns and throwing her out will produce some juice at the windows. Rounding out the tri with anybody but her.
Race 3 5 Furlongs. (Turf) MC 25000: Messy affair here. #9 Docs Way moves over to the grass for this maiden try. May be the speed here and his dam has birthed two turf winners. Gate to wire flyer.#3 Jabuticaba set the pace two back over a yielding turf course before fading to 4th. Now tries sprinting for second grass try. Should be a price.#2 Foggy Dreams switches to turf for hot connections. Will need to work out an inside out trip.
Race 4 6 Furlongs. Clm 5000b: Taking a bit of a shot with the #10 To The Hilt. Outside runner will have to be on the engine to clear the field – it’s his only chance at victory – but at 8-1 ML I’m willing to see if that plays out.Claudio sends #4 Free to Trump out on the cut back. Hits at a 27% rate on the claim repeat angle. Gelding is in good low claiming level form.#3 Fifties Music will be a number and though he is camera shy, he can get into the exotics here. Comes out of a key race at Laurel on April 18th.
Race 5 1 Mile. (Turf) MC 25000: #8 BenandJoe is the 7/5 morning line favorite and as much as I hate to eat chalk, this gelding’s speed figs stand out here (albeit on dirt). This field is leaving me in a state of confusion, so I’m simply deferring to Motion and his charge on the win end.#10 Sperry’s Run didn’t get to the track until he was 5 years old, and then he hit the gate to start his career. Showed some late interest in that race and will be a price here. Using on all tickets since I will simply refuse to pass on this race.#1 Payneful has some turf influence on the bottom of his pedigree and may like the switch to the grassy weeds. Another price to use in this Payneful handicapping endeavor.
Race 6 6 Furlongs. Alw 35000b: #7 Great Herman. I’m a sucker for early speed and even though he couldn’t see it out last time, I’ll give this colt another chance at what should be a fair price. Want him to be aggressive and clear the field early. Wire job.A perfect trip and set up may be coming for the ML favorite #1 Torch of Truth. Seems to have some talent and seems to have had a bit of bad recent racing luck. Only problem will be the short price#5 Royal Hussar has been away a long time, but he’s working well leading up to this and he doesn’t always need pace help to close well. Including this solid runner on all tickets
Race 7 1ˆ Mile. (Turf) OClm 25000: # 10 Quality Step. Won’t get much in terms of odds here but this solid runner feels like the right play. Nations is a nice and underrated trainer, and this runner is in nice form. Has plenty of time to work out a trip from out in the 10 hole with the long run into the first turn. Will be a large win bet at 5/2 or better and a single in the late picks.#2 Bigasaurus is switching to turf off of some nice PA state bred routing efforts. Has early speed and if he likes the lawn he may be there late too. Draws Trevor into the irons which is a plus.#7 Elementary may prefer cut in the ground and with some early showers forecasted he may get it. Late running type could be closing for a slice – my dear Watson
Race 86 Furlongs. TMOClm 25000: #1 Mrs Crews can finally get back to a fast track today. Off the cutback and with bullet under her saddle, this Michelle Nevin filly looks ready to fire a big one. Best horse in the race. Would adore the 3-1 price tag, but I won’t hold my breath.I can see a scenario where the top selection and #2 Allison K simply merry-go-round their way around the Pimlico dirt to a one- two finish. This consistent gal steps up off the claim#6 Close the Deal can’t. And he’s had some bad luck and plenty of excuses in his last three races. Maybe the real excuse is that he isn’t good, but since he’ll be a price I’ll use him in tri plays with the top two.
Race 9 5 Furlongs. (Turf) Clm 16000b:
Admittedly, I found this race quite confounding. I want some semblance of price, coupled with some sensibility. Maybe I simply won’t get that here, but is it possible that the #1 Gringo Star fits the bill? Sure, he rarely wins and sure, he’s stuck at this level, but something has to give. He’s got some positional speed and maybe the switch to turf helps. Gelding does have some turf in the family and Potts is having a solid little meet – he just needs a horse to break through. At a price I’ll bet it’s Gringo Star#2Benevolent Prince looks like the one they have to beat and might kick-start a good weekend for Kelly Rubley.#6 Cash Exchange is a stab in the dark at a price. Might like the weeds.
Good luck to all this weekend and thanks to the Daily Gallop!