Thanks for checking out today’s analysis. Aside from this weekly article I offer daily free full card picks for Gulfstream Park and Belmont Park as well as spot plays from other tracks. Be sure to give me a Twitter follow on @mhjpicks. Saturday’s Gulfstream Park card offers us 12 puzzles to solve. Today could be a day without more than a couple of winners over $10, be warned! Let’s get some winners!
Race 1
Today’s opening race is a 12.5k maiden claiming race for fillies and mares going 1 1/16 miles on the turf. My top choice #3 Veer is dropping faster than most incumbent politicians approval ratings right now while the speed figures have remained pretty consistent. This field has only a few near the Beyer par and she is at the top of the list. #10 Couple of Nikkis is the morning line favorite with a good aggressive jockey in Jaramillo to keep her involved early. #5 Herculina comes off a nice bullet workout for Wesley Ward who is 21% with runners off 61-180 days.
Selections: 3-10-5
Race 2
The second race is an 8k claimer for four year olds and upward going 6f on the dirt. #2 Swaggerhad a bad outing against a tough group last time and gets a softer group to try and control the tempo. He should be able to make the pace and Trejo has done well on the front end in his young career. # 5 Town Policy is second off a two year layoff and making a hefty drop in class. He may end up as a favorite in which case he doesn’t offer much value but I think he has a good shot to win. #7 Star Guancho has fallen quite a bit since his February races, still has some ability and could pop one.
Selections: 2-5-7
Race 3
The third race brings us a 1 mile turf 50k starter optional claiming race for 3 year olds. #8 Justinthenickotime has the most consistent speeds and drops slightly off a near win last out. Maker enlists Camacho who is riding well and while they don’t team up often, this combo is 44%. #3 Dominate Themoment is steadily improving in speed each race and will need that improvement to get it done today. Torres has ridden him several times and knows how to get this one going. #9 Givemetwenty is off a near miss for Nicks who is 21% second off 45-180 days.
Selections: 8-3-9
Race 4
Today’s fourth race is another mile race, this time on dirt for a 10k maiden claiming race for three year olds and upward. #5 Crystalina is the only one to have met the Beyer par in this group. She has been heavily raced over the past few months, however hasn’t shown any decline. I think she is going to be really tough to beat in this spot and should finally get her picture taken.
Selections: 5-9-2
Race 5
The probably light paying early pick 5 ends with a 1 1/16 mile turf route for 12.5k filly and mare maiden claimers. #6 Cactus Kitten is a first timer for Maker who is 20% with MCL’s. It’s a little suspect that a Kitten’s Joy goes out for a 12.5k first time claim, so that is a point of concern. #9 Lady Larko is likely going to be on the front end and at this level that can be the difference maker as they aren’t too keen on passing others.
Selections: 6-9-4
Race 6
The sixth race is a one mile 16k allowance optional claimer on turf for fillies and mares. #3 Amadora is improving each race and takes the next logical step after the MSW win. She moves to the Sweezey barn who is 13% first time with a new horse. She will need to keep the improvement going to get the win, but it isn’t out of the question. #6 Dynatown had a great late running effort last out and figures to do the same today. She has been second or third in her last six races. #5 Lookinnlikequeen had a win at this level a few back, definitely one to consider first off the claim for Crichton (26%).
Selections: 3-6-5
Race 7
The Rainbow 6 starts off with a 47k maiden special weight for three year olds and upwards going 6.5f on dirt. #4 Paynted is part of the uncoupled Zayat/Ward duo entered here. He, like his stablemate, are both recently acquired from the Navarro barn but I prefer the longer priced of the duo off the bullet workout. #5 Brewmeister is second off the layoff and while the trainer stats leave something to be desired, this horse is capable of a win today with the highest last out speed. #1 Perlman is the second of the aforementioned duo who ran second last out.
Selections: 4-5-1
Race 8
Today’s late pick 5 kicks off with a 12.5k claiming race for four years olds and upward going 7.5f on the turf. Looks like a two horse race despite a nice field size. #2 Picasso Moon drops in class and is first time with Dobles (24%). Hasn’t had much experience on the grass so far, but has the speed to compete as a major competitor in this group. #10 La Incondicional will likely be close to the pace and if she isn’t pushed could run on with it late.
Selections: 2-10-5
Race 9
The ninth race is the 7 furlong 75k Azalea Stakes for 3 year old fillies. #6 Boerne was beaten last time out, however I think she will control the front end and I’m not sure that any of these can keep up with her in that scenario. #5 Don’t Get Khozy ran off in her last race in a nice jump in class. #1 Bankruptonthebeach’s last trainer may now be bankrupt, but not likely to see the beach anytime soon. However, this horse landed in a good place with Maker who can keep the talent moving forward.
Selections: 6-5-1
Race 10
The tenth is a 1 mile turf race for 12.5k claimers four years old and upward. #9 Twenty Four Seven drops after some decent efforts in what is becoming a standard move for Joseph in dropping horses to races they should perform really well in to get wins more so than worrying about whether losing a horse in a claim. Should win this race. #7 Sir Seamus and #4 Roddick will both be battling it out on the front end and one of them could upset if my top choice can’t get going behind the pace.
Selections: 9-7-4
Race 11
The eleventh is the 75k Carry Back Stakes for 3 year olds going 7 furlongs on the dirt. #5 Double Crown is off a similar stakes win in May. Ritvo is 11% with last out winners which is similar to her overall strike rate at this meet. The main competition is #6 With Verve who went up against some really nice horses in his last race and has some nice wins on the resume. He ran behind the top choice at this level.
Selections: 5-6-2
Race 12
Today’s finale is a 25k maiden claiming race for three year olds and upward set for a mile on the dirt. #9 Chill Haze is 53% first off the claim with a $2.94 ROI, which is hard to ignore. #5 Winter At Bastgone had a big jump last race and I suspect it is more of a new trend rather than a point for regression. He will be a nice price. #3 Curlingo is moving way down the ladder; a 900k purchase now available for 25k. Definitely a cause for concern, but also there has to be talent here that can’t be completely overlooked.
Selections: 9-5-3