Happy Preakness Day in Maryland!
Race 1: MdClm $25k 5F Turf
1st: #2 Friendly Fire, Trombetta second timer having been just nipped at the wire in the debut going slightly longer than today’s 5F while earning a 58 Beyer. Expect improvement especially given distance relief.
2nd: #6 Fernwood Drive, has the best figures in the field and has a very strong 46 and 3 breeze on Tuesday on a muddy strip. Tries turf for first time, hard to know how he’ll like it. Is dropping down from $40k level.
3rd: #1 Shelly Island, a mixed bag of efforts last year, first try this year on turf showed big improvement earning a 51 Beyer.
Race 2: StrAlw $12.5k 1 & 1/16thM Turf
1st: #5 Liquid Alpha, definitely eye-popping seeing Irad Ortiz getting on this one in this class race so early in the day. Has two wins in last three tries down at GP coming at the $16k claiming level earning a 78 and 80 Beyer. Certainly in form at the moment.
2nd: #6 Sir Brahms, got back to his favorite surface last time out at the $14k claiming level and it showed as he beat 11 rivals and earned an 82 Beyer. Only 4, can project some improvement.
3rd: #10 Minister’s Strike, first time back this year got a win rallying from 19 (!) lengths behind early and earned a 77 Beyer over this same lawn. Definitely a threat.
Race 3: The Sir Barton Stakes $100k 3 Year Olds 1 & 1/16thM
1st: #5 Tone Broke, have seen this pattern from Asmussen in the past where he takes a horse on the road and finds the perfect place to put him. Colt broke his maiden by 15 at Remington and came back to take a first level allowance. Next was the Springboard Mile where he finished just 3 lengths behind Long Range Toddy, winner of the Rebel Stakes and starter in the Kentucky Derby. Throw out the races at Meydan, they mean nothing.
2nd: #3 King for a Day, 7-5ML favorite, first time out since November when he tried the G2 Jockey Club and was just 2 lengths behind Signalman and earned an 82 Beyer there. Don’t love taking horses first off a 7 month layoff.
3rd: #4 Top Line Growth, local favorite just broke his maiden in the claiming ranks where he got to a really easy lead and ran some very soft fractions while winning by 9 lengths beating 5 rivals. Huge step up in class here.
Race 4: Alw $52k F&M 5F Turf
1st: #1 Ying Yue, have to love the turf debut last out breaking from the same rail draw as today and setting absolutely blistering fractions 22, 44 and 2, 55 and 4 going 5.5F. Slight distance relief should definitely help. May 1 4F 46 and 2 breeze is eye popping. Still an improving 3 year old and gets a 10 pound bug boy.
2nd: #9 Hip Hop, first time out as a 4 year old tried turf at the OC$25k level and it was a winning effort. Second time back at 4 should improve significantly that is one of my favorite plays. 9 post going 5 definitely makes it tough but she could get toward the front early.
3rd: #14 Kitty’s Right, brutal draw getting the 14 post, she does manage to attract services of Irad Ortiz and is coming off a win on the turf. Will be behind many horses early which makes it tough.
Race 5: The James Murphy Stakes $100k 3 Year Olds 1M Turf
1st: #5 Real News, you have to like the progression here from the maiden win, the allowance win, the open stakes attempt at Keeneland finishing just a length behind Bulletin, the winner of the BC Juv Turf last year. Running lines suggest more distance will be friendly.
2nd: #6 War Film, perhaps the classiest horse in the field, Asmussen has been trying this one in graded stakes company and he’s been just a length behind in both the G3 Transylvania and the G2 American Turf on Derby Day. Beyers are increasing each attempt including an 87 last out. Late closer, I don’t know that shortening to a mile here helps.
3rd: #4 English Bee, after the allowance win at GP in January he tried the Columbia stakes at Tampa and was just a length behind Digital Age, who just followed that up with a win in the G2 American Turf on Derby Day.
Race 6: The G3 Maryland Sprint Stakes $150k 6F
1st: #1 New York Central, two tries as a four year old including last out in the G3 Commonwealth whose field was comparable in my opinion to that of a G1 race. This one ran 5th there by 3 lengths and earned a 95 Beyer going off at 22-1. Should prefer the 6F as opposed to 7 and should benefit from a massive speed duel ahead of him.
2nd: #4 Lewisfield, seems everytime I pick Lewisfield he gets beat by Laki, and everytime I don’t pick him he wins. Take that for what you will, this is a whole new ball game in terms of competition. Think he’ll be battling Wentz to his outside for the lead, expect that they’ll get passed. Depends how track is playing.
3rd: #6 Wentz, Servis trainee is all speed, speed, speed. Very rarely behind in any of his races, this is clearly a step up in class compared to OC$25 events at Parx, but he acquitted himself well over a muddy Keeneland track. Think he gets the worse of the speed duel with Lewisfield.
Race 7: The Searching Stakes $100k F&M 1 & ½M Turf
1st: #5 Ickymasho, 8-5ML fav and don’t think she’ll go off even that high. Fresh off the G3 victory going this distance at Keeneland earning a field-best 94 Beyer shows her class and her speed. Hats off to Roger Attfield for turning this now 7 year old into a graded stakes winner.
2nd: #2 Homeland Security, eye-popping having ran this distance twice and to have won both of them. Her numbers don’t quite match up and her first race back this year wasn’t pretty. Have to wonder why they moved her out of Chad Brown’s barn.
3rd: #3 Osare, last seen at Kentucky Downs going 1 & 5/16ths in a winning effort. First time back will be tough to get this distance, but definitely one to keep an eye on in the marathon events.
Race 8: Alw $52k 6F
1st: #9 Overdeliver, there was all types of bumping in the beginning of that Wood Memorial, chart comments say ‘Check st, clip heels 1st’. Suggests this one really didn’t get a fair shake. Was second to Win Win Win in the Pasco where WWW set the track record. Relying on his class to carry him to this allowance win.
2nd: #1 Articulator, earned some really big figures that would easily win this including a 95 in a third place effort three back. The quality of competition down there is certainly high but it’s concerning that the horse hasn’t won since last April, over a year ago.
3rd: #5 Dirtyfoot, local horse who had just won a $50k StrAlw before Robert Bailes inexplicably tried turf. Back to his preferred surface today.
Race 9: The Very One Stakes $100k F&M 5F Turf
1st: #6 Jo Jo Air, Wesley Ward trainee attempted open stakes company—yes against colts—and won by nearly a length going today’s distance 5F earning an 82 Beyer. Last work is also impressive when she breezed 59 and 1 around the dogs at Keeneland. Back against fillies today.
2nd: #4 Souper Echo, steady competitor in the OC$25-35k levels, finally got her back on turf last out and she won by almost two lengths. Considerable step up in class here, but she probably prefers turf.
3rd: #8 Misericordia, two honest efforts in stakes company at Belmont and GP in last two, just a couple lengths back. Should compete here.
Race 10: The G3 Gallorette Stakes F&M 1 & 1/16thM Turf
1st: #4 Mitchell Road, ever cautious Bill Mott sends this one back to the track after 3 month layoff. Nearly perfect in 6 starts, 4 wins 2 narrow defeats. Last out was a stakes win at the Fair Grounds earning a 90 Beyer beating Beau Recall who came back to win the G2 Churchill Downs Distaff Turf Mile on the Derby undercard.
2nd: #2 Inflexibility, obvious ML fav Chad Brown horse who is making her seasonal debut after a bevy of strong graded stakes performance last year including a second in the G3 Beaugay, 2nd in the G2 Dance Smart, and 5th in the G1 Beverly D, just 2 lengths behind Sistercharlie.
3rd: #3 Thewayiam, second time out this year for Graham Motion after a solid debut effort finishing second at GP in allowance company. Last year’s highlights included a second place finish in the G1 Belmont Oaks to Aidan Obrien’s Athena where she earned a 92 Beyer.
Would include 1 and 5 and play a 1-2-3-4-5 superfecta here. Gotta hope for a price on top.
Race 11: The G3 Chick Lang Stakes $200k 3 Year Olds 6F
1st: #8 Preamble, love the way this one is able to rate behind some very fast fractions and take over in the lane. 92 Beyer as a two year old is impressive, expect improvement here in her second time out at 3. Ability to rate should help with the amount of speed lining up to her inside.
2nd: #7 Pyron, similar rating ability as Preamble, I question the sloppy effort last time out at OP but the Beyers are very strong. Should also benefit from very strong pace if she can avoid getting sucked into it.
3rd: #3 Malpais, maybe the fastest horse in the race and depending on how the dirt is playing she could be the on-top selection. If the dirt is playing like concrete and speed is prevailing, this is your top pick.
Race 12: The G2 Dixie Stakes $250k 1 & 1/16thM Turf
1st: #12 Catholic Boy, may not be primed to perform at full strength off the 7 month layoff, but how can you go against a 3 time Grade 1 winner, two of which came on turf battling and defeating the outstanding Analyze It. There’s a case to be made that this is the best horse in training in North America right now. Today won’t prove or disprove that, but it’s the first step to what is hopefully a long and prosperous 4 year old season.
2nd: #11 Inspector Lynley, won’t be surprised at all if this one takes it, he’s been racing at high level including a win in the G3 Tampa Bay back in February where he earned a 101 Beyer. Last out was a win in stakes company at Aqueduct. Definitely in form.
3rd: #3 Admission Office, lightly raced 4 year old who looked like a hot number in the Chad Brown barn last summer. After a long layoff and a switch into the Brian Lynch barn, he acquitted himself extremely well in allowance company at Keeneland last out earning a 90 Beyer. Eligible to improve.
Race 13: The G1 Preakness Stakes $1,500,000 3 Year Olds 1 & 3/16thM
1st: #7 Alwaysmining, what is there left to say about this one? Close followers of these pages know that we have fallen in love with Maryland’s prodigal thoroughbred son! We’ve been picking him for months, did you really think we’d stop today? No graded tries until today; it is a gigantic step up in class compared to wintertime Maryland stakes horses. He seems to get better and better, especially as the distances get longer. Noticeably on videos from training this week he looks bigger and more muscular than ever before. Trainer Kelly Rubley, who we profiled back in February just after Alwaysmining won the Miracle Wood Stakes, says he loves to train, loves to do his job and is very mature. He has the speed. Anything over 4-1 is just gravy.
2nd: #5 Owendale, Brad Cox’s winner of the Lexington Stakes didn’t quite make it into the Derby but he might be better off for it. Will definitely be coming and making a gigantic run. He owns the second highest Beyer in the field and the highest in a winning effort. Definitely peaking at the right time, last drill at Churchill is brilliant. Expect to see him running on the turn.
3rd: #4 Improbable, really classy horse, I’m afraid I’m just not totally convinced after watching him get passed in the stretch at the Rebel by…Long Range Toddy? Certainly his effort in the Derby was high quality, and my worries of his issues out of the gate didn’t destroy his chances. Still his gate issues are well-documented, a poor break could cost him the race.
Superfecta ticket: 7-5-4-2-9-1
Race 14: MdSpWt $50k 6F
1st: #8 Firecrow, two solid efforts against top class maidens down at Oaklawn Park and the highest Beyer figure in the field make this one the top selection. Interestingly blinkers coming off.
2nd: #3 Glory Song, Ness trainee was just passed at Parx after setting really strong fractions 21 and 4, 45 flat, and 57 and 2. More sensible fractions and he could easily win.
3rd: #4 Gnarly Mo, highly thought of debuter, the connections paid $385k for him as a yearling. Uncle Mo always has precocious offspring. Excellent drills.