What a card we have for today at Gulfstream. The Pegasus World Cup highlights it, but there are eight other stakes races on tap, including the first Pegasus World Cup Turf. Let’s not lose any further time and go right to the analysis:
1st race: 1 1/16 on the Turf. MSW 3 year olds.
Kitten’s Spa (#2), Value Engineering (#6), A.K. Safari (#10)
We begin this card with a very difficult race to handicap. Kitten’s Spa was caught in a very slow pace; this is why he wasn’t able to make an effective late run. Now gets Jose Ortiz in the irons and second time out should be much fitter. Value Engineering is a first time starts for Chad Brown. His name is Value Engineering, but I suspect he will be no value bet at all. Working steadily, nothing extraordinary but you know these Chad horses always come running, especially on the grass. A.K. Safari gets blinkers on for the first time, so he will be much close to the pace today. One of his races was against War of Will, who last week won the Lecomte at the Fair Grounds, and Hernandez keeps going to the well, looking for gold.
2nd race: 7 furlongs. Allowance Optional Claiming $12,500. State Bred 4 year olds and upward.
No Dinero (#11), Souper Wish (#9), Charlie the Greek (#3)
This horse is in great form, and although he is substantially climbing up the ladder, I don’t see that much speed in here. He should be able to go right to the lead or just by the leader. Hector Berrios is a master in harnessing that initial speed. Souper Wish just won his maiden at 30 cent for the dollar, in a race taken off the turf. Irad rides right back and he will be in that early flight from the start. Charlie the Greek is a Gulfstream Park specialist, with five of his six wins coming in this oval. Jose Ortiz repeats in the saddle for trainer Joseph Catanese and he will be watching the speed duel develop from the garden spot.
3rd race: 5 furlongs on the Turf. The Gulfstream Park Turf Sprint. 4 year olds and upward.
World of Trouble (#4), Stormy Liberal (#3), Pay Any Price (#6)
This is a rematch of the Breeders Cup Turf Sprint, in which Stormy Liberal ran World of Trouble into submission. But I think there are some factors that can favor the latter today; Irad is back on the saddle, not much speed besides Pay Any Price and Stormy Liberal is traveling from California after a loss on January 1st. Furthermore, Drayden Van Dyke is not riding the champion, and with him, Stormy Liberal has his best races. But this is a fun race to watch.
4th race: 1 mile, Maiden Special Weight, 3 year olds.
Tripwire (#7), Samaronti (#6), Ranger Up (#13)
Tripwire has been running in Woodbine’s Polytrack, in distances longer than this one. Has the experience edge over this group and his pedigree screams dirt. Leparoux will take the call today for Mike Maker, and he has run in two stakes races already. Samaronti was hammered at $725,000, 18 times the stud fee for Violence. Chad Brown teams up with Javier Castellano once again and his works signal readiness. Ranger Up was lackadaisical from the gate in his debut, now Pletcher puts blinkers on him and Johnny V. will take over the reins. The thirteen post does not do him any favors.
5th race: 5 furlongs on the Turf. The Ladies Turf Sprint. Fillies and Mares, 4 year olds and upward.
Painting Corners (#3), Cherry Lodge (#4), Surrender Now (#1)
My top pick didn’t lift a hoof last time out, but that was on an off the turf race in Santa Anita, and the fact that she is traveling here just two weeks after that race makes me think she is ready to fire. Furthermore, the opposition she has been facing in Cali is better than these fillies. Prat already guided her to victory. Cherry Lodge is a very talented filly who clearly has had some issues, but was doing great up to her last race. Now returns in a distance much more suitable to her. Ortiz rides back for Todd P. Surrender Now has won two in a row, but she is returning from a five month hiatus. If she can work a trip from the inside, she can be dangerous.
6th race: About 7 ½ furlongs on the Turf. The South Beach. Fillies and Mares, 4 year olds and upward.
Road to Victory (#12), Capla Temptress (#13), Dolce Lili (#9)
Lightly raced Road to Victory gets the nod in this complicated event. Tough post on the gate, but there is not much speed in here and Irad Ortiz will be able to place her whenever he wants on the race. I suspect we will see her at or near the lead. Capla Temptress just won the Grade III My Charmer, so this being a listed stakes is a bit of a drop in class. Joel Rosario knows her well and she will be right there at the end. Dolce Lil will be part of the first flight, and, as I indicated before, we don’t see much early zip in here, so Velazquez should be able to rate her comfortably.
7th race: 7 furlongs. The Grade III Hurricane Bertie. Fillies and Mares, 4 year olds and upward.
Blamed (#5), Shamrock Rose (#4), Stormy Embrace (#8)
Coming back to a sprint distance, looks like Blamed can be the controlling speed in this race. She is coming from a two-month rest working nicely for her return, and her defeat against the Breeders Cup champion was in a race in which she had problems at the start. Shamrock Rose is riding a four race-winning streak, and the seven furlongs is her best trip. Maybe she will not get the hot pace she prefers, but Irad will try to get her closer to the lead to try to pounce from there. Stormy Embrace is definitely the best from the rest; Gaffalione will be sitting at a cozy garden spot watching the speedsters do their thing and look for her to be right there at the end.
8th race: 1 ½ mile on the Turf. The Grade III La Prevoyante. Fillies and Mares, 4 year olds and upward.
Tricky Escape (#5), Santa Monica (#9), English Affair (#3)
In these marathon distances, I always prefer a horse who is close to the pace or the pace setter. Tricky Escape has victories in 1 3/8 and 1 5/16 mile distances, and he prefers the dry footing, so I expect a great race out of her. Chris de Carlo has ridden her in the majority of his races and rides back. Santa Monica drops to a group who should be more of her liking and she is also one that doesn’t like give on the ground. Jose Ortiz takes the call once again and she has a win over this trip. English Affair receives a good upgrade jockey wise and her best race was when she ran this distance at Keeneland. Clearly showing an improvement pattern over her last races.
9th race: 1 mile. The Grade III Fred W. Hooper. 4 year olds and upward.
Copper Town (#8), Coal Front (#1), Storm Advisory (#2)
Really don’t know what happened to Copper Town in the Cigar Mile. He had some problems at the start, but really didn’t seem like he had any intention of running that day. Looked like a clear bounce to me. I am giving him another chance, Javier Castellano stays up after such a dismal effort and there is not much speed signed in, so he should be right up there from when they spring the latch. Coal Front was magnificent in the Mr. Prospector, but can we expect a performance similar to that one? Seems like a typical bounce candidate, but the race favors him pace wise. Storm Advisory is a very honest horse that can be the one that gives the exotics that spice needed for a good pay.
10th race: 1 ½ mile on the Turf. The Grade III W.L. Mc Knight. 4 year olds and upward.
Hunting Horn (#8), Zulu Alpha (#4), Canessar (#7)
I will draw a line over the last two races for this horse. He was facing Enable. This is a group or far lesser quality and has run well before at this same trip. Pace wise, he should be mid pack and Lourdan makes the trip to ride for Aidan O Brien. Zulu Alpha now goes to a distance more suitable to his strengths, and, after a disappointing effort, Irad Ortiz tries again with him. One win and one placing in three start at 12 furlongs confirm his affinity for this trip. Canessar gets now the services of Castellano and his only win in the states was at a mile and a half. Will be flying late and with a pace honest enough, he can decide in the final stages.
11th race: 1 3/16 mile on the Turf. The Grade I Pegasus World Cup Turf Invitational. Three year olds and upward.
Delta Prince (#8), Yoshida (#2), Catapult (#9)
Intriguing race this first rendition of the Pegasus World Cup Turf Invitational. Let’s try to shake up things a little bit with Delta Prince. I know this horse has not run at this distance, but he beat morning line favorite Yoshida in August at Saratoga pretty handily, in a race he was bet at 5/2. Blinkers go off again after a failed experiment, and Jimmy Jerkens hits at a 40% clip when routing after a sprint. Dettori takes the call and he will be a juicy price in the windows. Yoshida has run in two consecutive Grade Is on the dirt, now returns to the grass, which I think is his favorite surface. Ortiz prefers him over Channel Maker. Catapult was seemingly home free to win the Breeders Cup Mile, but was caught near the wire. Rosario will be in the irons for John Sadler, and he should be right there in the second flight ready to attack from the three eights pole on.
12th race: 1 1/8 mile. The Grade I Pegasus World Cup. Three year olds and upward.
Audible (#10), City of Light (#3), Accelerate (#5)
I am going to give Audible another chance. After all, the big prize is this one. He had two probable reasons why he faltered in his most recent; a probable bounce and the very slow pace in front of him. He will have a much more rapid pace now to make a run and he is a better two-turn horse. Flavien Prat takes over, and he is a capable enough rider to take this pot of gold. City of Light was a star in the Breeders Cup Dirt Mile, imposing a strong pace and then easily withstanding the late run of the closers. I think Castellano will take him a little bit off the pace for this race and the number three post can work wonders for him. Accelerate is the older male Eclipse champion, in his swan song, looking to cement his legacy. I prefer him at a mile and a quarter, but if things fall into place, he is a very logical horse.