Oaklawn Park Analysis, Bets, & Selections for The Daily Gallop on March 5th, 2020
By Dennis Trusty
Race 1 6 Furlongs. Clm 16000n2L Purse $26,000 FOR ARKANSAS BRED FILLIES AND MARES THREE YEARS OLD AND UPWARD WHICH HAVE NEVER WON TWO RACES. Three Year Olds, 119 lbs., Older, 125 lbs. Non-winners Of A Race Since February 5, 2020 Allowed 2 lbs. Claiming Price $16,000 Post Time: 2:30/(1:30)/12:30/11:30
4 Willow Moon 4-1 just got beat by the 5 horse 7 days ago but I think can turn the tables on her. She has a ton of speed and will be flashing it early and I hope she doesn’t get caught this time.
8 Portion 3-1 went wire to wire to get the maiden score almost 1 month ago for Ron Moquett and Ricardo Santana but the difference today vs last time she slowed it down to a 47 that’s not going to happen today with the 4. 2nd time off the layoff either means she will bounce or if she can sit off the 4, she could win maybe.
5 Michelle’s Grace 2-1 if there is a pace meltdown, which there could be she might be able to catch the 4 again. I just really think she got lucky and the last few times she was in for similar she was huge prices. Prime power from Brisnet picks her 5th so indicating a false favorite and maybe one of those to play against. Just the only thing that could save her is a meltdown from the speed.
Selections 4-8-5
Bets $1 exacta box 1,4 2,4 4,5 4,6 4,8($10)
Race 2 1 1/16th Mile. MC 30000 Purse $32,000 FOR MAIDENS, THREE YEARS OLD AND UPWARD. Three Year Olds, 119 lbs., Older, 125 lbs. Claiming Price $30,000, if for $25,000, allowed 2 lbs Post Time: 2:57/(1:57)/12:57/11:57
4 We’re Still Here 6-1 claimed 2 back by Jason Barkley ran horrible last time raising back up to maiden special weight. Now doing the right thing by lowing this horse where he could break the maiden, was claimed from SF Racing, Starlight Racing, Madaket Stables, and Stonestreet Stables and was a 270,000 dollar purchase for that group. I hope they send him right to the lead and try to steal the race since there is a 11 speed figure distance for pace in the E1.
3 Jacks Fire Balls 7-2 hasn’t run since November for Tommy Van Berg, where he was beaten favorite for 40,000. If they go so slow and they are well grouped up he can win this race, because they can’t go fast for no speed. And if they aren’t grouped up there will be too much to do. I think he has a huge chance but needs help.
2 Ronamo 5-2 it’s getting odd not seeing Channing Hill ride for Wayne Catalano, can anyone tell me what happen? Anyway, he ran 2nd from a stalking trip at Keeneland last time with Hill aboard. He just doesn’t seem to know how to finish the race being in front 2 times at 3rd call and being 2 lengths out 6 times and finished 2nd or worse every time. Just could fall in his lap today.
Selections 4-3-2
Bets $2 win & $6 show 4($8)
Race 3 6 Furlongs. Clm 10000n2L Purse $23,000 FOR FILLIES AND MARES THREE YEARS OLD AND UPWARD WHICH HAVE NEVER WON TWO RACES. Three Year Olds, 119 lbs., Older, 125 lbs. Non-winners Of A Race Since December 5, 2019 Allowed 2 lbs. Claiming Price $10,000 Post Time: 3:25/( 2:25)/ 1:25/12:25
1 Fairy 5-2 Norman McKnight brings this Woodbine shipper in off an allowance 40,000 claimer where she got beat by 15 lengths. She closed and won for maiden claiming 25,000, so I don’t question her class. I just question if she can run on the dirt, kind of like her partner the 1A which you get them both.
2 Italian Justice 2-1 I don’t trust this horse. One of the few Turfway Park starters for Brad Cox and it was in cheap I seen a horse do similar and Brad wanted to get rid of the horse at Turfway before they shipped and didn’t do anything at the next track the horse went to. She came out of that race to run 3rd at Oaklawn for 16,000 now in for 10,000 I see Brad is desperate to get this horse out of his barn. Not saying she can’t win she is probably the best horse in the race, just don’t like the odds and Brad Cox dropping.
10 Hush Y’all 10-1 ran 2nd at Delta Downs back in December and that race could get 2nd or 3rd here if she gets the right ride. I personally don’t see this horse winning tomorrow but if the 1’s don’t like dirt and the 2 just is a fluke then I could see her lighting the tote board.
Selections 1-2-10
Bets $1 exacta 1,2-1,2,3,5,8,9,10($12)
Race 4 6 Furlongs. MC 16000 Purse $25,000 FOR ARKANSAS BRED (WHICH QUALIFY UNDER RULES GOVERNING ARKANSAS-BREDS) MAIDENS, FILLIES AND MARES THREE YEARS OLD AND UPWARD. Three Year Olds, 118 lbs., Older, 124 lbs. Claiming Price $16,000 Post Time: 3:52/( 2:52)/ 1:52/12:52
1 Millie’s an Angel 5-2 steadied and five wide last time in her only start, and it wasn’t like she was a huge price, she was 5-1. So, her trouble trip and 2nd place finish doesn’t sound to me like a fluke, she could be in Arkansas bred stakes races at the end of the meet.
12 Thursday Morning 10-1 she ran even in both her races never really making a move just a small steady loss of ground for higher class. A change in jockey, even though I think Zeke Lara isn’t a bad jockey, the veteran in Julio Felix could do something different. They are also putting blinkers so she could be looking to show speed. She could have been away from horses and started looking around, you never know.
4 Be Done With It 12-1 she is the possibly best Arkansas bred I have seen, Stay Thirsty and Awesome Again mare. She has been working super slow so that tells me she might be a closer and she might want more distance. I just wouldn’t be surprised to she her runs in the money.
Selections 1-12-4
Bets $3 win & place 1($6) $3 show 4($3)
Race 5 5½ Furlongs. Clm 6250 Purse $23,000 FOR FILLIES AND MARES FOUR YEARS OLD AND UPWARD. Weight, 122 lbs. Non-winners Of A Race Since February 5, 2020 Allowed 2 lbs. A Race Since January 5, 2020 Allowed 4 lbs. Claiming Price $6,250 Post Time: 4:19/( 3:19)/ 2:19/ 1:19
10 She’s a Lucky One 15-1 ran decent races at Prairie Meadows in the summer, now 2nd off the layoff. I love the price she has here. She is going to close in from off the pace, and I think that could be an advantage in this short race since some horses could be hustling to the lead go too quick and she gets them late. Every time she has ran on bigger circuits, she lost the majority the only win on the form from a big track Keeneland claiming 30,000 and she went from last to first at 32-1. So that means she has back class and I give her a chance to circle the field again.
4 Louise the Laser 5-2 2nd off the claim for Norman McKnight she ran a hard-trying 3rd now going down a to the bottom level and getting 4 pounds off from last start could be a difference maker. She has never won on the dirt in 7 years, never ran 2nd on the dirt in 7 years, and only 1 3rd place finish which was last time on the dirt. Good on the poly, good on the turf, dirt ehhhh I question it, and at 5-2 I wouldn’t take her.
5 Staythirstymyamigo 3-1 won last time at Los Al TB for 12,500 and I am not a good California handicapper so my friend who is @young_capper on twitter tells me that Los Al TB is like Ellis Park for California the 12,500 is probably like the bottom of Oaklawn. I think she is the horse to beat for Doug O’Neill but I don’t know how she is going to like Oaklawn vs Cali.
Selections 10-4-5
Bets $3 win & $10 show 10($13)
Race 6 1 Mile. Clm 12500 Purse $27,000 FOR FILLIES AND MARES FOUR YEARS OLD AND UPWARD. Weight, 122 lbs. Non-winners Of A Race Since January 5, 2020 Allowed 2 lbs. A Race Since November 5, 2019 Allowed 4 lbs. Claiming Price $12,500 Post Time: 4:46/( 3:46)/ 2:46/ 1:46
5 Road Test 2-1 she had a terrible start last time out and ran 2nd. She is dropping in for 12,500 for the purse and to get claimed and I have a feeling Karl Broberg or Robertino Diodoro will be trying to claim her.
7 Moonlight Train 3-1 speaking about Karl Broberg here he is with this good claiming filly, she has won 5 out of her last 6 including one state bred stakes race. She just seems in form and could be one of the few horses that could really push the 5 in this spot.
8 Cowgirl Callie off the claim for Jerry Hollendorfer running 2nd to the 7 by a neck, and 3rd to the 5 by 4 lengths 2 races ago. Hollendorfer could get her straightened out and possibly get her to push past both of them.
Selections 5-7-8
Bets $1 exacta box 5,7,8($6)
Race 7 6 Furlongs. MC 75000 Purse $51,000 FOR MAIDENS, THREE YEARS OLD. Weight, 122 lbs. Claiming Price $75,000, if for $65,000, allowed 2 lbs Post Time: 5:14/( 4:14)/ 3:14/ 2:14
4 Onaway 7-5 minor drop in class I don’t see anyone claiming this horse for this much. They ran a 1:09.8 and he got beat by 4 lengths that was a little too quick for him last time and now with a small drop in class for Brad Cox I don’t see anyone really beating him.
2 Haney Boys 6-1 ran a 2nd best race in his at Remington Park, where he was beaten by 6 lengths in his lone start. I think if they go kind of quick up front he could be rolling late, which isn’t likely but not impossible. I think Richard Eramia is a perfect for him especially to run a bang up race today.
1 Shanghai’s Dream 9-2 every time Steve Asmussen has two horse and Santana chooses one of them that’s the one you have to watch out for. I don’t like the fact that he ran at Turfway Park and too has had 8 starts in 0 wins and 0 seconds but 4 3rd place finishes. I think he will go to Texas after this race today but I think too Asmussen thought he was a decent horse for his barn. He would have gone down to Oklahoma after Ellis Park, because he could have had the option to do that but Asmussen decided against it.
Selections 4-2-1
Bets $1 exacta box 1,2 2,4 2,7 2,9($8)
Race 8 6 Furlongs. Alw 92000n3L Purse $92,000 FOR THREE YEAR OLDS AND UPWARD WHICH HAVE NEVER WON THREE RACES. Three Year Olds, 119 lbs., Older, 125 lbs. Non-winners Of A Race Since February 5, 2020 Allowed 2 lbs Post Time: 5:42/( 4:42)/ 3:42/ 2:42
9 Strike That 7-2 was claimed in the first start which is really odd. And instead of coming back quickly they waited for Oaklawn 6 months later for a starter 50,000 and crushed that field as well. So I think he is just a well spotted horse and they are going to try to keep racking up at the M & M Stables.
4 Impressed 6-1 throwing the last race out because of a poor break, this horse is a speed ball and I think will be on the engine this time out. Much better races when he is on the speed and I think that will happen today.
5 Nice Work 20-1 how is he 20-1? Running good races in California, if you were price shopping this is the horse I would take 2nd off the layoff and never being off the board at California on dirt.
Selections 9-4-5
Bets $5 win & place 9($10) $3 win & place 4($6) and $2 win & $6 show 5($8) total 24 and a prayer that the 6 doesn’t beat us.
Race 9 1 1/16th Mile. Clm 30000n2L Purse $33,000 FOR THREE YEAR OLDS AND UPWARD WHICH HAVE NEVER WON TWO RACES. Three Year Olds, 119 lbs., Older, 125 lbs. Claiming Price $30,000, if for $25,000, allowed 2 lbs Post Time: 6:10/( 5:10)/ 4:10/ 3:10
8 Caribbean 7-2 one of the rare times I think Asmussen didn’t let Santana get on the better horse, Ramon Vazquez gets the call and Steve just claimed him from the M & M barn for 20,000 where he broke his maiden by 11 lengths. He is a 6 year old horse but never was ran properly until he went in the M & M barn and when he was, he was claimed and he won. Now in the Asmussen barn they run him right where he belongs again and I think that he might reward them, or run up the track.
12 Mutineer 9-2 every time he was in for a claiming tag, he has been no worse than 2nd. Not in the best form for Doug O’Neill but if he finds his claiming form, he is a major threat to this field. OR he has gone sour and needs to be dropped to the extreme bottoms we will see after this race.
10 Mica Bay 9-2 I this could possibly be I have the wrong Asmussen and there might be a reason why Santana is riding this one. On paper I don’t see why, did run a good winning race at CD off the claim but then came back and ran poorly, and got beat by the 9 in that race.
Selections 8-12-10
Bets $3 win & place 8($6)
Total its quite a bit $96 but I think a few races could be well playing.