Oaklawn Daily Gallop Selections and Bets for February 20th By Dennis Trusty
Sunny all week mid 40’s to low 50’s perfect winter weather racing. The only problem is the wind blowing and if that’s the worst thing I am happy with that.
Race 1 6 Furlongs. Clm 6250 Purse $22,000 FOR FILLIES AND MARES FOUR YEARS OLD AND UPWARD. Weight, 122 lbs. Non-winners Of A Race Since January 20, 2020 Allowed 2 lbs. A Race Since December 20, 2019 Allowed 4 lbs. Claiming Price $6,250 Post Time: 2:30/( 1:30)/12:30/11:30
6 Syrah 5-2 has gone through her conditions 2 races ago at Delta winning a N4L for claiming 5,000. I don’t know what Federico Villafranco was doing in the race last time. Running for 16,000 being back where she belongs this time should run drastically better. When Villafranco drops down 2+ classes he is 28% winner out of 123 horses.
7 Lethal Leanne 9-2 on a drop in class from 13,500 claiming at Hawthorne. On a trainer change, and normally I would say trainer changes can be a good thing. This one, hell no John Haran couldn’t train a calculator to do math. This horse could just be better than everyone else in this race barely. Because as a bettor we bet horses not trainers or jockeys, most times. Look all percentages and probabilities are against her but she seems like a decent horse for this spot and if I was going to claim a horse, she might be it. And run her for starter 8,000.
3 Anita Marie 4-1 I hate giving out older horses, especially mares. This 10 year old mare ain’t what she used to be, but she might have enough back class here to get something positive out of this race. With a record of 90-17-19-17, she exits an 8,000 n1y where she finished 5th. Before that she finished 3rd for 5,000 at Mahoning Valley that was an even 3rd the whole way out.
Selections 6-7-3
Bets $2 win and place 6($4)
Race 2 1 1/16th Mile. MC 25000 Purse $30,000 FOR ARKANSAS BRED (WHICH QUALIFY UNDER RULES GOVERNING ARKANSAS-BREDS) MAIDENS, FILLIES AND MARES THREE YEARS OLD AND UPWARD. Three Year Olds, 118 lbs., Older, 125 lbs. Claiming Price $25,000 Post Time: 2:57/( 1:57)/12:57/11:57
5 Dat Girl 5-2 was closing last time out of the 11 post as a first time starter, and hung if she gets the same setup today she might have learned and go on by. Exits her race on a 12-day layoff, which tells me that she is fit. She is for sure the horse to beat in this race in my opinion.
12 Mary Alice 9-2 she is the classiest horse in the race, coming out of a maiden special weight for Arkansas breds. Was 9-2 that day and had an outside post which she might not have handled ehhh. Drops down for a claiming tag in Arkie breds. Ran decently for open maiden claiming at Laurel and did okay at Delaware for maiden special weight, she does need to improve or just have the class pressure taken off of her. I expect the best race of her career today.
11 Kelly Be Krusin 3-1 coming out of the same race as the 12 where she beat the 12 but drew towards the inside and she was out slowly and caught the 12 when she was quitting and the jockey might have been wrapping up on her. I expect a different story for today but I wouldn’t be surprised if the 11 still beats the 12 for sure one to use.
Selections 5-12-11
Bets $1ex 5,11,12-5,9,11,12($9
Race 3 6 Furlongs. Clm 20000n3L Purse $28,000 FOR THREE YEAR OLDS AND UPWARD WHICH HAVE NEVER WON THREE RACES. Three Year Olds, 119 lbs., Older, 125 lbs. Claiming Price $20,000, if for $16,000, allowed 2 lbs Post Time: 3:25/( 2:25)/ 1:25/12:25
1 El Asesino 2-1 Robertino on fire Diodoro, yes that is his legal middle name, is at 40% and winning a ton of races for owner M&M Racing. He shows speed and faded last time out at Churchill Downs, but falls down the class ladder and comes in from 50,000 where he showed speed and faded. To now claiming 20,000 N3L should be tough here if right, if not won’t hit the board.
8 Swither’s Shortcut 5-1 the deep closing Illinois bred should be rolling from the deep if they have a pace meltdown. Doesn’t like Oaklawn with a record of 4-0-0-0 but that’s okay I have faith that this time could be different, because it seems he runs his race (unless it’s two turns). I look for this horse if there is a bias for closers to be a serious threat at the end.
4 Hollywood Star 10-1 this horse has a lot of angles I don’t like, the better races with bute from Prairie Meadows, the pulled up and now dropping way down in class, the blinkers on off on off on off thing. Now, that’s why he is 10-1 but why I think he could run better is the pulled up was going long distance. Has the fastest times besides the 1 horse as far as distance goes. He is a reach but if it works it will pay decently.
Selections 1-8-4
Bets $1exacta box 1,3 1,4 1,8($6)
Race 4 6 Furlongs. MC 20000 Purse $25,000 FOR ARKANSAS BRED (WHICH QUALIFY UNDER RULES GOVERNING ARKANSAS-BREDS) MAIDENS, THREE YEARS OLD AND UPWARD. Three Year Olds, 118 lbs., Older, 124 lbs. Claiming Price $20,000 Post Time: 3:52/( 2:52)/ 1:52/12:52
12 Babadoook 20-1 a race primed for a price, the tough jockey Chel-C Bailey gets on for a trainer I am unfamiliar with. But he ran 2nd and 3rd last year at Oaklawn for state bred 25,000 as heavy favorite all 3 times. I AM IGNORING EVERYTHING ELSE AFTER THOSE 3 RACES. He could be the gamble of the day with a jockey such as Chel-C Bailey and just fitting back in where she belongs.
9 The Dark Jewel 4-1 if you are a trip handicapper this is you, off slow traffic ¼ pole. This is my biggest money saving angle though a horse in his/her first race being a huge price and having trouble and being low odds the next time out. He was 38-1 last time and now at 4-1 I couldn’t bet this horse but I can see him running a winning race.
11 Blanco Bronco 6-1 a wolf of Oaklawn hasn’t ran since the last meeting, one of the better gate jockeys gets on in Julio Felix and might try to send extreme off the long layoff. Ran 3rd last year 2 times for 20,000 maiden claiming, but that was 2 turn. I really think this is a prep for a mile race next time.
Selections 12-9-11
Bets $2 win $6 show 12($8)
Race 5 1 1/16th Mile. Clm 16000n3L Purse $26,000 FOR THREE YEAR OLDS AND UPWARD WHICH HAVE NEVER WON THREE RACES. Three Year Olds, 118 lbs., Older, 125 lbs. Non-winners Of A Race Since January 20, 2020 Allowed 2 lbs. Claiming Price $16,000 Post Time: 4:19/( 3:19)/ 2:19/ 1:19
10 Tizpure 4-1 oh boy here we go Robertino Diodoro, again claimed from Dale Romans and puts blinkers on. Ran so much better at Ellis Park and Indiana Grand, did poorly at Churchill Downs but comes in today on a bit of a layoff. Just seems to get a good trip here I think, will win if good enough.
6 Zing Zang 5-1 first mount for Mr. Oaklawn Ricardo Santana, Steve Asmussen owns and trains just a grinder who I could see clawing up through the field late. Comes out of Turfway Park and where he finished 7th for the same condition. If it wasn’t for connections, I wouldn’t like this horse but the connections here at least make me consider in this weak field.
5 Carlos Sixes 7-2 off the claim for 7,500 from Woodbine now in the Norman McKnight barn ran pretty decent for 25,000 and 50,000 won last time for 7,500. The only 2 concerns are never been on dirt besides in the morning, and Channing Hill is a jockey I have given up on. Other that he should run a bang-up race.
Selections 10-6-5
Bets $2 win and place 10($4)
Race 6 6 Furlongs. MC 10000 Purse $22,000 FOR MAIDENS, FILLIES AND MARES THREE YEARS OLD AND UPWARD. Three Year Olds, 118 lbs., Older, 124 lbs. Claiming Price $10,000 Post Time: 4:46/( 3:46)/ 2:46/ 1:46
12 Starvana 9-2 ran 2nd and 3rd for 15,000 at Turfway Park and Brisnet Prime Power picks her 2nd. And last time a 5th place for claiming 25,000 I just through that race out. I think the outside is the best place her cause if she shows speed she could carry it all the way for a victory.
6 Our Lizzy Lou 4-1 only can improve with the blinkers on, she ran a pretty slow 4th place last time out at Churchill but has ran better in the past. I think she has to improve here with an equipment change and a small drop in class. Could get the job done today
5 Sheshed 6-1 this sheshed might not burn down like the one in the State Farm commercial, but it could blow up on the lead? She showed a blistering pace at Turfway and burnt getting blown by. And then did the same thing at Oaklawn just not as bad. 2nd time Lasix and a slight drop in class might have the sheshed built back up.
Selections12-6-5
Bets $2 win and place 12($4)
Race 7 6 Furlongs. Alw 16000s Purse $30,000 FOR FOUR YEAR OLDS AND UPWARD WHICH HAVE STARTED FOR A CLAIMING PRICE OF $16,000 OR LESS IN ONE OF THEIR LAST TWO STARTS. Weight, 122 lbs. Non-winners Of A Race Since January 20, 2020 Allowed 2 lbs. A Race Since December 20, 2019 Allowed 4 lbs. (Races Where Entered For $12,500 Or Less Not Considered In Allowances) Post Time: 5:14/( 4:14)/ 3:14/ 2:14
1 Lewys Vaporizer how the bleep didn’t any trainer claim this horse?????? 9-2 Sorry just had to get that out of my system hadn’t been in for a claiming tag for an eternity and kept performing well for starter allowance type races and now in for a tag and no one claimed him. He will do what he always does, speed and lets see if he can hold on but my goodness.
8 Icatiro 5-2 was claimed 2 back for Robertino Diodoro and then came back in for starter 16,000 and won. Has to close and run down the 1 and it isn’t impossible just has to really need someone to challenge the 1 and the have the 1 quit.
6 Codetowin 8-1 might be out matched here, coming in off a 4 race win streak and just was claimed from Hawthorne for 13,500. I think this is the perfect condition for him but not the right track or sort of race. Illinois bred might need some state bred races or back in that state would be awesome for him. With that said I think he still could run a very good race.
Selections 1-8-6
Bets $3 win and place 1($6) $1 exacta 1,8-1,2,5,6,8($8)
Race 8 6 Furlongs. OC 80000n1x Purse $86,000 FOR FILLIES THREE YEARS OLD WHICH HAVE NEVER WON A RACE OTHER THAN MAIDEN, CLAIMING, STARTER, OR STATE BRED OR WHICH HAVE NEVER WON TWO RACES OR CLAIMING PRICE $80,000. Weight, 122 lbs. Non-winners Of A Race Other Than Maiden Or Claiming Since December 20, 2019 Allowed 2 lbs. A Race Since October 20, 2019 Allowed 4 lbs. Claiming Price $80,000 Post Time: 5:42/( 4:42)/ 3:42/ 2:42
1 Sweet Kisses 7-5 got beat by the talented filly Tarez who tragically broke down Monday. (Crazy thing is the song came on while I was handicapping titled Hold On To Memories by Disturbed) This looks like her race today, and that song punched the hunch bet home too. She is the horse in this race to beat by far.
5 Kiss the Girl 2-1 beat the 1 believe it or not, towers over the field on the prime power number but I just don’t know how to feel about her last two races. Also, her works are super slow 52 and change and 51 and change I’m just worried she isn’t the same horse as her first race at Belmont. She has an excuse of outside post last time but at her odds and the competition She should have won.
Selections 1-5
Bets $1ex 1-2,3,4($3) $1 tri 1-5-All($3)
Race 9 1 Mile. MC 50000 Purse $46,000 FOR MAIDENS, FILLIES THREE YEARS OLD. Weight, 122 lbs. Claiming Price $50,000 Post Time: 6:10/( 5:10)/ 4:10/ 3:10
6 Hungry N Scrappy 5-1 the 130,000 dollar purchase by the group of Madeket and Dubb etc. and trained by Brad Cox has always been dangerous this meet, and this is no exception. Just wish this was special weight instead of this claiming price.
9 Auction Fever 7-2 I remember those 150,000 maiden claiming races at Churchill Downs were as weak as a kitten. I told people to look at those races as half those horses are maiden 50,000 and the other half is 15,000. She ran 2nd and got beat by 7 lengths so maybe 50,000 or so is right for her. They tried maiden special weight and got destroyed so my theory was correct for those races. She still has to prove to me she is in the 50,000 categories but at least I know where she isn’t and that is special weight.
1 Lil Red Vette 6-1 ran 3rd last time for this same condition but now trying 2 turns for the first time. Was claimed 4 races ago for 25,000 and it was a decent claim ran 2nd for maiden special weight at Remington. I am afraid this horse could have my favorite angle next time “rank and cutting back in distance” could be too far to rate her. I think this could be a horse to watch next time but if she handles the 2 turns and the pedigree says she can she could be very dangerous.
Selections (in the words of Rey Mysterio) Booyaka Booyaka 6…. 9, 1 ehh that’s not right but close enough. 6-9-1 that’s my pueblo lol
Bets $1 exacta box 6,1,9($6)
Total $55 Good luck and hope this helps, thank you for reading I appreciate it very much. Any questions or comments @dennis_trusty and/or @thedailygallop.