Oaklawn Park Racing Analysis- Thursday, March 14, 2019- By Stewart Winograd

1st: no opinion

2nd: 3-7-1
Electress wanted no part of a mile after getting squeezed early.  She passed horses down the lane in her first Oaklawn start at a time the speed was holding pretty good.  Logical modest class drop in her third race of the meet.
Honest and Lucky looks good on paper after a Maiden Special Weight debut in which she was well bet.  They are dropping her below her purchase price a bit sooner in her career than I like to see.
Essie will be a heavy favorite off her strong debut.  While she is a contender, she has only had one published workout in the past month.

3rd: no opinion

4th: 4-1-1A-7
Coastal Highway put himself in the race when Red Again, who is better than the horses in today’s field, was unchallenged on the lead.  
Both halves of the entry fit this race.  Entries are often underbet in the win pool when both horses contend but neither stands out.
Dapper Jack has shown speed versus better and is a wire-to-wire threat.  I am skeptical of front-runners with more places and shows than wins in their career.

5th: no opinion

6th: 10-12-6
Perfect Plus was against the grain of the track in both of her Oaklawn starts.  Although the claiming price is the same, she has found easier conditions in a non-winners of three races lifetime.  Council Rules, winner of her last race, has won ten races and wouldn’t be close to eligible for today’s race.
McKnight has spotted Redeal where she can win, but his lack of ambition for this horse says something.
Fashion Rose was overmatched in her Oaklawn debut.

7th: 11-6-1
Wide-open Arkansas-bred maiden filly race.  R Marie showed speed on a tiring track and lost to Oochie, who will be seen in a better race later on the card.
Dixie Cat made a nice bid in her debut and could move forward.
Portion gets the services of good California rider Flavien Prat with Santa Anita temporarily closed.
Several others showed promise in their debut and can’t be eliminated.

8th: 8-1-6
Superstar Bea may have needed a race when losing to Usual Suspect in her 2019 debut.  Jockey switch to Alex Canchari, who won nicely with her at Oaklawn last year.
Bye Bye J just placed in a graded stakes race at Gulfstream.  Heavy favorite on paper, but she’s just three years old and March is early in the season to face older non-maidens with impunity.
Usual Suspect beat most of these wire to wire on a track kind to speed after the apparent front-runner in that race was scratched at the gate.  Lots of planets aligned last time.

9th: 4-5-3
Master Guns showed nothing versus two-time meet winner Nuclear Option.  The track was wet and sealed that day and his subsequent workouts are promising, so I’m inclined to throw that race out and give him another chance.
San Juan Diego was ten lengths the better of Master Guns last time and figures, but it took him a lot of New York-bred races to find a field he could beat.
Sabrena’s Bling lost to Nuclear Option in a different race and is often running late for a minor placing.

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