Oaklawn Park Racing Analysis — Thursday, April 9, 2020, by Dennis Trusty

Race 1 6 Furlongs. MC 16000 Purse $17,200 FOR MAIDENS, FILLIES AND MARES THREE YEARS OLD AND UPWARD. Three Year Olds, 119 lbs., Older, 124 lbs. Claiming Price $16,000 Post Time: 2:05/( 1:05)/12:05/11:05

3 Alena Marie 9-2 was 2nd place last time as a beaten favorite for 25,000. Now taking another minor drop in class for the Paul Holthus barn, could do the trick. She just fits in this race perfectly and I think just what she needs.

5 Collude 3-1 the horse that is going to be favorite and could potentially be the horse to beat here for trainer Steve Asmussen and jockey Ricardo Santana. Dropping down from 40,000 where she ran 4th as beaten heavy favorite, to now 16,000. I am just worried that she isn’t good enough over the 3. I also agree this is her condition, win or lose just like the 3 but I just think the 3 is slightly better.

7 Mesange 10-1 finishing behind the 3 and the 2 last time, I think she can turn the tables on the 2 but I am not sold on the 3. If you’re looking for a price as to try to hit the board, I think this is your horse.

Selections 3-5-7

Bets $2 win and place 3($4)

Must Use: 3,5 Next Up: 7,8 Deep Ticket

Pick 4 3,5-3,4,7,8-1,3,7,8,9,13-2,8,9,10($96)

Race 2 6 Furlongs. Clm 16000n3x Purse $18,200 FOR ARKANSAS BRED (WHICH QUALIFY UNDER RULES GOVERNING ARKANSAS-BREDS) THREE YEAR OLDS AND UPWARD WHICH HAVE NEVER WON THREE RACES. Three Year Olds, 120 lbs., Older, 125 lbs. Non-winners Of A Race Since February 9, 2020 Allowed 2 lbs. Claiming Price $16,000 (Races Where Entered For $5,000 Or Less Not Considered In Eligibility And Allowances) Post Time: 2:35/( 1:35)/12:35/11:35

4 Drexel 9-2 was 7-2 last time and got beat by the 3 and the 5 and I think that was fluky. I think he was too close up maybe a bit rank last time and if he settles down and with the post difference (4 hole from the 11 hole last time) could be a HUGE difference!

8 Leo Del Reo 6-1 Just broke his maiden last time and has been 1st and 2nd place for claiming tags for Arkie breds. So how I wound up on this horse is tossing his first 4 races, the last two are the ones you want to look at. And now maybe the horse’s “light bulb” came on since being dropped in class.

7 Wasabi Moon 4-1 first time being in for an Arkie bred claiming race and that might fix him. If he shows what he did in the allowance company for Arkansas breds things aren’t getting better. If he shows what he did in the open claiming races he could be right there.

Selections 4-8-7

Bets $2 win and place 4($4)

Must Use: 4,8,7,3 Next Up: Deep Ticket:

Pick 3 3,4,7,8-1,3,7,8,9,13-2,8,9,10($48)

Race 3 1 1/16 Mile. Clm 8000n2L Purse $17,000 FOR THREE YEAR OLDS AND UPWARD WHICH HAVE NEVER WON TWO RACES. Three Year Olds, 119 lbs., Older, 125 lbs. Non-winners Of A Race Since February 9, 2020 Allowed 2 lbs. Claiming Price $8,000 Post Time: 3:05/( 2:05)/ 1:05/12:05

9 Campaign Spy 5-1 love the comment last time, “kicked down leader.” Looks like Catalano knew what he was doing when he put this horse in for 6 furlongs twice then rerouted him. In a race filled with horses dropping from the clouds it’s nice to see a horse taking a minor drop to show that he can run for this condition vs a guessing game.

1 Eskendereyas Dream 7-2 seems like the dream went up in smoke on Eskendereyas Dream. Was claimed for 30,000 3 races ago for Tom Amoss and then ran 5th for 30, and was beat by 19 lengths. Then tried turf and ran bad there too. Now just massive drop so Amoss knows he made a bad claim but is 8,000 enough?? We all know this horse would be in at Indiana Grand for 5,000 n2l if the virus didn’t happen. Prime power picked 8th which is also worrying. But if this horse wakes up for 8,000 could be tough.

8 Cowboys Dream 3-1 another one where it is a guessing game, was claimed for 20,000 from Chris Hartman to Broberg’s barn. It’s a rarity to see him put a horse in for a race and be 33-1, especially if it is going up one notch in class. Then down to Delta Downs and was 8-1 in an allowance race and got beat there and now Broberg gives up on the horse. Again is 8,000 enough?? If this hadn’t had happened, we know the horse would be in for 4,000 at Evangeline and win for fun. But, 8,000 at Oaklawn ehhhhhhh shaky.

Selections 9-1-8

Bets $3 win $10 show 9($13)

Must Use: 9,13,1,8,7 Next Up: 3 Deep Ticket:

Pick 3 1,3,7,8,9,13-2,8,9,10-2,3,5,6,12($60)

Race 4 6 Furlongs. Clm 6250n1y Purse $17,000 FOR FOUR YEAR OLDS AND UPWARD WHICH HAVE NOT WON A RACE SINCE JUNE 9, 2019. Weight, 124 lbs. Non-winners Of A Race Since May 9, 2019 Allowed 3 lbs. A Race Since March 9, 2019 Allowed 6 lbs. Claiming Price $6,250 (Races Where Entered For $5,000 Or Less Not Considered In Eligibility And Allowances) Post Time: 3:35/( 2:35)/ 1:35/12:35

8 Tre Lee Divine 4-1 claimed for 12,500 last time and now drops in class. Two of the horses that he ran against last time won and he ran 4th. My main concern is he hasn’t had a workout since March 7th.

9 Riker 9-2 claimed by Joe Sharp last time from the Fedirico Villafranco barn where he is 20% first off the claim. I don’t know what he could do to improve this horse, but if he stays the same, he can be right there.

2 Dingdingdingding 7-2 ring the bell *ding ding ding ding* was claimed for 8,000 2 back, raised up to 16,000 ran bad and now dropped in class to this spot, where he fits better.

Selections 8-9-2

Bets $3 win and place 8($6)

Must Use: 8,9 Next Up: 2,10 Deep Ticket:

Pick 3 2,8,9,10-2,3,5,6,12-3,4,6,8($40)

Race 5 6 Furlongs. MC 20000 Purse $18,000 FOR MAIDENS, THREE YEARS OLD AND UPWARD. Three Year Olds, 120 lbs., Older, 125 lbs. Claiming Price $20,000 Post Time: 4:06/( 3:06)/ 2:06/ 1:06

12 Kinetic Swagger 5-1 was 2nd last time for 16,000 by a neck and if he runs that same effort I think he picks up the win here for 20,000. He was running for 2 turn races and then cut back to 6 and it seemed to fit him better.

5 Hidden Promise 6-1 was claimed two races ago for 20,000 and then raised up to 25,000 and ran about the same race and finished 4th. The difference today is the cut back in distance, it seems this horse starts quitting after about 5 and a half furlongs or so. In turn going 6 furlongs this horse could be there at the end.

2 Runtech 9-2 dropping in class for the Runhappy connections, Brisnet’s Prime Power picks this horse first. Speaking of first, first time he is dropping in for a claiming tag which certainly will help! I’m afraid he will have to improve slightly but still could and win this race.

Selection 12-5-2

Bets $2 win and place 12($4)

Must Use: 12 Next Up: 2,3,5 Deep Ticket: 6

Pick 3 2,3,5,6,12-3,4,6,8-4,7,10,11($40)

Race 6 1 1/16th Mile. Clm 50000 Purse $37,000 FOR THREE YEAR OLDS. Weight, 124 lbs. Non-winners Of A Race Since February 9, 2020 Allowed 3 lbs. Claiming Price $50,000, if for $45,000, allowed 3 lbs. (Races Where Entered For $30,000 Or Less Not Considered) Post Time: 4:36/( 3:36)/ 2:36/ 1:36

4 Artemus Eagle 3-1 would have been prepping for Keeneland April 17th a condition where it fits him perfectly but with it being cancelled Maker turns here with a fit horse I believe. On the lone dirt race he won at Keeneland by 2 lengths, went wire to wire and turned in questionable his best performance. Ran at Turfway and did decent up there. So, I think this is a good plan B and is very capable in here.

8 Icecap 5-2 first time in a tag for Asmussen last time out and won after wearing down the other horse to get the victory. I think they figured out this horse is a grinder and will force you to run, run, run from the turn on out.

3 Its My Bag Baby 6-1 when there are two Brad Cox horses in the race, I am leaning to the one with Joe Talamo. I also notice that Brad just got this horse and isn’t doing anything special with him just trying to get claimed maybe and turn a good profit. Me being at Churchill quite often I noticed they made a condition for horses sold for I believe 75,000 or less in its recent sell or RNA for 75,000 or less. So that was a very weak restricted field in my opinion but it was a perfect placement for this horse and finished 4th to Shashashakemeup.

Selections 4-8-3

Bets $1 exacta 4,8-2,3,4,6,8($8)

Must Use: 4,8 Next Up: 3,6 Deep Ticket:2

Pick 3 3,4,6,8-4,7,10,11-1,3,4,5($40)

Pick 4 3,4,6,8-4,7,10,11-1,3,4,5-11,13($80)

If things seem I am hurrying now it is because I have bad storms coming my way and might not have much time to get the things out.

Race 7 1 1/16 Mile. MC 20000 Purse $18,000 FOR MAIDENS, FILLIES AND MARES THREE YEARS OLD AND UPWARD. Three Year Olds, 119 lbs., Older, 125 lbs. Claiming Price $20,000 Post Time: 5:06/( 4:06)/ 3:06/ 2:06

10 Illusionista 4-1 was probably getting ready for a maiden claiming turf race at Keeneland or Arlington Park before this happened so they ship up here to try to get a win. This horse has mainly turf breeding but did okay on dirt.

4 Quiet Dawn 6-1 the Chris Hartman trainee finished 2nd last time out for 25,000 now a small drop in class could help her out.

11 Gypsy Wind 7-2 2nd time around two turns after she finished a hard trying 4th. Now with a fast track and some learning experience could get her to the winning circle.

Selections 10-4-11

Bets $2 win and place 10($4)

Must Use: 4,10,11 Next Up: 7 Deep Ticket:

Pick 3 4,7,10,11-1,3,4,5-11,13($16)

Race 8 6 Furlongs. Alw 61000n1x Purse $61,000 FOR THREE YEAR OLDS AND UPWARD WHICH HAVE NEVER WON $15,000 OTHER THAN MAIDEN, CLAIMING, STARTER, OR STATE BRED ALLOWANCE OR

WHICH HAVE NEVER WON TWO RACES. Three Year Olds, 119 lbs., Older, 124 lbs. Non-winners Of A Race Since February 9, 2020 Allowed2 lbs Post Time: 5:38/( 4:38)/ 3:38/ 2:38

1 Tuggle 4-1 finished 2nd last time in a similar condition off of a long layoff. Could come back and run big again 2nd off the layoff.

5 American Mandate 4-1 I think this is the better Asmussen horse vs the 3, after finishing 3rd for this condition last time. And I think with that happening I hope it happens again and could be better.

4 Morning Snow 5-1 claimed from Bob Baffert so this might be his worst horse but it could be someone else’s good horse. He won for 40,000 and time wise he matches up with everyone in here.

Selection 1-5-4

Bets $1exb 1,2 1,3 1,4 1,5($8)

Must Use: 1,3,4,5 Next Up 2 Deep Ticket 9

Double 1,2,3,4,5-11,13($10)

Race 9 6 Furlongs. MC 50000 Purse $34,000 FOR MAIDENS, FILLIES THREE YEARS OLD. Weight, 122 lbs. Claiming Price $50,000 Post Time: 6:09/( 5:09)/ 4:09/ 3:09

11 Readyformycloseup 7-2 was beat favorite for Steven Asmussen last time at Fair Grounds, he was prepping this horse for a race on closing weekend before Fair Grounds closed up and you can tell that by his work tab. So, a fit horse here could win here. Also, a minor drop in from maiden special weight to maiden claiming 50,000 should help.

13 Shazzy B 3-2 Brad Cox now trains this horse from Dale Romans who was beaten favorite in a FL bred state bred race. On speed figures this horse is over these, but on class I disagree, and say it has to prove it to me. But a for sure must use.

8 Luminaire 5-1 another horse primed and ready for Fair Grounds Steve Margolis shipped this horse up there and under David Fawkes name in my opinion to take a shot here at Oaklawn. First time in for a claiming tag after a 4th and 5th place finish at Fair Grounds.

Selections 11-13-8

Bets $3 win and place 11($6)

Must Use 11,13 Next Up: Deep Tickets 6,8

Total $57

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