Hey everyone, Bryan Doranski here for Friday at Oaklawn Park! Last week was brutal for us the track was sloppy, the picks were worse. The first race, the 2nd choice won easy at a huge $45 tag, and I knew we were in trouble for the day. I had that as a top choice on Thursday, but before submitting I changed it up as I didn’t trust Roberts….oh what a regret. This week we need some winners to get back to the positive, and help the column along. 7 weeks to get green!!!!
Last Week ago: 9-0-0-0 0% (2/9 ITM) ($18 wagered, $0returned net -18.00) $- ROI on $2 Win Bets
Oaklawn 2020: 63-13-10-6 20.6% (29/63 ITM) ($126 wagered, $85.20 returned) net -$40.80) $1.35 ROI on $2 Win Bets
Enjoy the races and give me a follow-on Twitter @BDHorseplayer-
Race 1
8 FIRST EMPRESS- May not be the most logical winner here, but with 2 career starts, horse has improved every time. Another step forward today for Tyler Baze, and I think the horse is lively at 6-1 ML for Peter Eurton. 2 Back couldn’t keep up with the hot pace, but today should be like last out giving a good chance. First time facing winners, but was a huge win, so horse could be in great form.
6 SIRENIC-First time facing winners, which I don’t like usually, but in this spot against horses trying to break maidens for the 6th time or so, it seems logical. I would rather see someone other than Hill aboard considering but…..
5 MANDY- Hey talking about someone else, Ricardo Santana on the mount here for Peter Miller tries the new distance with 2 turns, has tried some huge company in California before a what was probably a disappointing effort in February here. Not sure I can bet this horse at the short price, weakening at 6F now trying 8F.
Race 2
3 LUNA FORTIS- Not sure what I think about this race- after a few weeks off Contreras brings this horse back at 2 turns. Nice little weight allowance here could benefit. Should be able to sit off the pace decently enough to save energy and perhaps ground.
2 DUTCH TREAT- Horses best effort at Arlington Park last year would win versus this field easily but has been a slow gradual decline in efforts since that. Nice price here but there is a reason for it. VanMeter is winning at 25% so worth keeping an eye on it here.
8 DARING- Kim Puhl has a decent enough ROI first off the claim, so worth noting here. Horse fits on Beyers here and should figure to be in the money at the end. Slight jockey regression to Roman here but fully capable to win.
Race 3
3 COLOMBARD- Ingrid Mason horse on the second start at Oaklawn after trying allowance company. This feels like a big drop and I am not sure why the placement here. I should fade this horse but on the 3rd start since the layoff, I have to include. Hope the price holds.
2 RICKHOUSE- So last out horse stopped at the ½ mile and just walked in, which is the reason why we are getting a nice price at 8-1 ML here. At Churchill last fall, this gelding was holding his own with multiple money performances.
1 POWER SONG- Diodoro has been cold lately but still has 32% win on the meet. On the tiring effort from last start comes back at the same distance but Diodoro is profitable on 1st from the claim so let’s see what happens.
Race 4
4 WILL B LATE- Well, this horse in 2 starts moves from Delta to Oaklawn, should figure to be close to the money. Workouts seem decent enough to give an idea that the horse can be a runner, should at least be in the money if not breaking maiden. Also gets weight allowance, so have to use here.
3 DENA’S BOLD MOVE- Couldn’t break maiden in 8 tries so going to try for the 4th time in 2020. Probably going to be short priced, but I do not think the horse is good enough for a bet at 2-1. Add in that Ashauer hasn’t won yet- this can be a bad combination for a short priced horse.
Race 5
6 DEFENDER- 2nd from the layoff here and was progressing with every start last year. Huge effort last month for this horse, means either flops or runs huge today. If track is sloppy this is my top pick on the day based on effort in the mud previously. 12-1 ML should give us plenty of value.
4 LIGHTHAWK- Again I find myself on a Diodoro horse but was in this level last out and held his own. Goes to Mojica now who should be able to duplicate what Cohen did last out to put this horse in a good spot. 2nd start from the layoff. Had some huge efforts for this level in 2019, maybe can get back.
7 PARADE FIELD- Fits great on pace for Timeform figures, but not a fan of the jockey change to Bridgmohan. When horse won, its been a slow pace to do so. Not sure what happens for this horse today, but will be too short for me to get on.
Race 6
7 HINTON- I will not bet this horse as he will be too short, but comes back to claiming ranks after trying allowance company and was less than impressive
Race 7
1 ARRIVAL- Fits nicely on Timeform Pace projections and I think if can get back to how ran in January/February can win today at a great price. 10-1 ML and given my opinions of the likely favorites below, I think this is the horse to go with. If its sloppy and the rail is deep, I will be hesitant, but worth keeping an eye on the tote and the track for the best opinion.
2 HAWAAKOM- Came out form the layoff and ran a huge number matching a fall of 2019 Beyer. Drops down in class and lost last out to Remembering Rita who failed to perform last Friday. That weakens my opinion of this horse and tells me to look for a value spot.
5 OPERATION STEVIE- Horse looked good in a reduction of class in the first start of the year and stands to be able to have a nice pressing trip and power hope in the lane. Heavily raced horse as an 8 year old, and should prove to be the best at a short price.
Race 8
6 HOTSHOT ANNA- Has some back class here to get the job down and has already ran twice this year. This puts in 3rd off the layoff for a horse that ran well last month for Robertson. Hasn’t won at Oaklawn in 3 tries before, but given the recent efforts will be a factor today.
2 MIA MISCHIEF- Shes been around for what feels like forever for this 5 year old, who has 4 starts and 4 in the money finishes with 2 wins at Oaklawn. She obviously likes it here, but will be less than even for sure. In the money 15:19 times, which tells us she likes to cash and likes to win. Workouts suggest shes ready- and would be top pick, if I thought we could get at least 2-1.
Race 9
10 SECULAR STAGNATION- Lets take a shot on a nice price here. Horse looked good at Saratoga then didn’t run again until last month. Huge sale horse and given the placement last out, connections had good feelings for this horse. 10-1 ML I will take a swing. Only 3rd lifetime start for this 4 year old.
9 ON d’ORO- Hawley has this interesting placed horse here on 3rd from the layoff off. Slight improvement last out from 2 back, and now changes to Elliott on the mount. That may only be a slight improvement, but worth a shot here on a horse that should be forwardly placed at a nice price. If track is wet I like this one even more.
6 AZTEC EMPIRE- Seemed to have improved and grown up over the winter with a decent outing from the layoff last month. Should be ready to strike today and I really like Talamo on the mount. I think this horse ends up way shorter than the 4-1 ML suggests, and that’s the only reason for the 3rd choice here. Logical step forward in 2nd start as 4 year old wins today.