Keeneland Racing Analysis — Wednesday, April 10, 2019, by Hunter Ulwelling

Race 1-

1st #7 Champagne Affair is debuting his career, as well as kicking off his stallion, Daredevil’s career so I am very excited about that.  This is Happy to Go’s first foal to run. So lots of fresh blood here. Wesley Ward trains.

2nd #6 Alec and Arthur was a $22,000 Keeneland buy last year.  He is by Successful Appeal, and there’s been many foals from the dams side, and all together they have made just over $945,000 which is really cool.

3rd #4 Merchants of Cool is the other Wesley Ward trainee who is by Trappe Shot.  He was a cheap $10,000 purchase, we will see what he can do.

Race 2-

1st #4 Direct Approach comes halfway down in class after some not excellent efforts at Gulfstream.  He just simply was put into the wrong races and I like him better here.

2nd #3 Raison Martini is trying the dirt for the first time and being stretched out in distance.  I think his odds should be a little bit higher, but maybe someone knows something we don’t.

3rd #5 Market Garden needed the class drop, his Beyer numbers were pretty good for the kind of races he was running.  I’m also hoping he has the ability to close.

Race 3-

1st It’s tough not to take #7 Stephanie on Fleek.  Todd Pletcher is doing pretty well so far here. I see it being a little difficult for her to win two in a row.  She’s by Orb and likes the turf a lot.

2nd #1 Tula is a fairly consistent filly.  Six races, and off the board once. It wasn’t a bad race either, it was a fourth place finish, she was just a little wide around the turn and couldn’t catch them.

3rd #6 Annie in Charge has done well for being three years old with a little over $70K in earnings and also, only off the board once.  I’d call it a case of third-itis, with five second place finishes out of nine starts. Off the claim too.

Race 4-

1st #4 Marie’s Mandate is a first time starter for Brad Cox, and based on her works, she seems ready to go.  Cox places horses where they need to win and I think she is in a good spot.

2nd #5 Duches of Grace is coming fresh from Oaklawn.  She’s nearly earned back her purchase price of $7,500 and I think she was worth the price for Ron Moquett.

3rd #1 Miss Hannah only has one start for Ken Mcpeek and she started to come up and then lugged in and couldn’t pull through.  Second start should be an improvement.

Race 5-

1st #8 Magic Tapit is the one to beat with the race he ran last out.  A 102 Beyer is all respect. He’s so lightly raced for his age. Lots of layoffs can be really concerning.  I do hope he will go to Woodbine this summer.

2nd #6 Keep Quiet (FR) is a fairly consistent gelding.  His race last out and was pretty solid, he ran a 90 Beyer.  He even ran in the Breeder’s Cup back in 2016. Then he had an ultra-long layoff and ran a solid race coming back.

3rd #2 Another has Jose Ortiz aboard which means my expectations are set slightly higher being that he is also trained by Bill Mott.  He has also had a lot of layoffs which is a little odd and his race last out was a good effort, but he just paused late.

Race 6-

1st #3 Nottoway gets the blinkers off and a nice (and needed) class drop.  A while ago he was in his prime, but once he got bumped too high in class, his confidence faded.  This is a good spot for the son of Twirling Candy.

2nd #6 Day Dreamer looks good, even though he won last out I just see it being a challenge to win two in a row since this company is a little bit tougher for him.  He was also just claimed last out so first start for the new connections.

3rd #4 Hallie’s Hero has put in some good runs recently, but the question is, is he good enough for this field?  Keeneland is such a step up from Turfway that I’d be very surprised to see him win here.

Race 7-

1st Although it is fun to beat the chalk, #4 In The Lee’s last race was tough and she had a terrible trip and was in tight.  She deserves the benefit of the doubt, this is a good spot for her. It’s her first race at Keeneland.

2nd #8 Dynatail might need an out since she has been off since the end of last October.  She last raced here and it was a nice allowance win. She’d be a nice broodmare when she’s done, about $340K in earnings.  

3rd #6 Bonnie Arch has been in over her head quite a few times, and just like other horses, just needs some class relief.  She’ll be better here.

Race 8-

1st #2 Parade Blue is on a class drop. It’s interesting that he only has eight races at the age of six but none of these races have been bad.  Always a good effort.

2nd #5 Unbridled Outlaw has a good race, then gets thrown above where he belongs.  So then he doesn’t run as well and now he is here. From a stakes race down to $25,000.  He’s had a couple second place finishes here.

3rd #9 Buggy Brown was a cheap buy at $4,500, and he’s gone above and beyond that.  Last races at the Fairgrounds have been respectable efforts.

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