Hey everyone, Bryan Doranski here for Friday at Oaklawn Park! Two weeks ago top selections were tough- only 22% winners, second choices fared much better but that’s not how we play this game! Slight turn up last column compared to overall, so the small grind is making its way to the profitable side. That said let’s get some winners this week! Didn’t go 3 deep in every race this week to keep the column a little smaller than some weeks!
2 Weeks ago: 9-2-2-1 22.2% (5/9 ITM) ($18 wagered, $13.80 returned net -$4.20) $1.53 ROI on $2 Win Bets
Oaklawn 2020: 18-4-4-3 22.2% (11/18 ITM) ($36 wagered, $25.20 returned) net -$10.80) $1.40 ROI on $2 Win Bets
Enjoy the races and give me a follow-on Twitter @BDHorseplayer-
Race 1
4 DANGERFIELD- Gelding ran good here last year now returns from a layoff for John Prather Jr. Workout pattern looks solid enough for this company and horse should be able to win. Short price here
1 CANDY MY BOY- Ingrid Mason shipper here looks good on the morning line, and fits here. Ran decent last out on soft dirt, and gets back to fast today. With a good trip from the rail for Terry Thompson could be a good day.
6 CHICORY BLUE- Last 2 out has been away from career type performances for this gelding. Should get back to a fast track today and perhaps gets back to the winners circle.
Race 2
4 CARIBBEAN- Diodoro has been huge at Oaklawn and this horse looks ready to continue the trend. Has taken 11 times to break the maiden but today is going to be the day! Nice workout pattern, good numbers. Short price here but appears to be huge today.
Race 3
2 HIS GIANT- Decent ML price here for this horse. Delta shipper here so a little hesitant but Joe Talamo on the mount today for Tom Amoss. Workouts aren’t huge but this field leave me wanting more. Allowance company at Delta to waiver claiming at Oak lawn feels like a step that could be tough but this is a risk vs reward in a field of very average horses.
4 MICHAEL T- If this horse has a better workout pattern on this layoff I would be all over him. Unfortunately I hate the pattern of 12 days, 14, 22, 14, 15 for the works and have a hard time putting money on a horse with this inconsistent work, as I question the stamina today.
Race 4
8 DESTINY’S LOVE- This horse broke her maiden in October, came back and won again next out, then tried tougher company and has been mediocre. Tired last out it appeared leading the whole way before losing by 1.5 lengths. With that race under her belt, in a good spot for $20k, think we can see a decent price and effort from her today.
1 ENJAY’S BRASS- Think this horse is going to be a short price and it may not be worth it, but something to include in horizontals if that’s how you play. Horse has a lot going for her, and Steve Hobby has been good on a layoff and with Churchill shippers. Martin Garcia aboard today for a good effort on the rail.
Race 5
11 TEMPT FATE- Horse comes out for a 2nd start, won last out but was placed 7th. Was a pretty good effort despite the official placing. Joe Sharp stands to have him ready and I really like the consistent work since not running since December 6th. In a field of inconsistent horses, the 2nd time effort here could be huge.
6 TEN BUDS- This would be a price pedigree play as the Sire LAURIE’S ROCKET is winning offspring at 27% at a limited sample of 3/11. Timothy Martin isn’t huge in first timers or 3 year olds but at what is a huge price, could be interesting.
Race 6
1-1A Entry SUPER TERRIFIC/RIDE TO THE WIRE- Both of these horses look good today with Ride to the Wire probably the better of the duo. Horses will be short but by far the most logical winner today. Small move down in class and the horse finds a little relief perhaps. Wait and see what jockey ends up here as both have David Cohen listed early.
3 ADMIRAL BROWN- If either of the entry fault then I like this Karl Broberg entry with Mojica aboard. Should be able to sit back, I just question if there is enough pace today for this horse to close into. A tactic change may be needed to win, but if the price floats could be worth it.
Race 7
6- JUNIOR GILLIAM- Santa Anita East continues for Hollendorfer, who has this entry today off a huge layoff of 400 days. If the price floats, with a good workout pattern, I will give this horse a shot, as the numbers it ran before the layoff would win today.
8-KOWBOY KARMA- Horse was regressing when they took him to the barn for the winter. Not a great work pattern but the horse could respond well to the layoff and fire back today.
Race 8
1 IMPRESSED- After leaving Arlington Park and going back to dirt, horse had some big outings. If this holds true and the horse really likes the dirt, then no reason to suspect a step backwards today. She has done well with horses going from Hawthorne to Oaklawn so, worth a shot today. Horse finally went to the front and was able to win, should come with a similar effort today and as long as Felix is smart with placement, could finish strong.
8 AUGIE- Horse ran some big numbers at Indiana and Keeneland before the Turfway experience on synthetic. De La Cruz should have a good pressing trip and have no excuses today. Only reason isn’t my top pick is the subtle move up in company but overall, this horse could provide value- watch the tote and let it tell a story.
Race 9
1A JOAN’S DELIGHT- Moving up in company here and is going to be a short price. Not sure how I can buy in to this but before the layoff the horse won twice. I like Loveberry as a jockey and getting the entry here is a benefit to hopefully hold price here as the other part of this coupling should leave some value on the table.
7 WEAST HILL- Of the horses I like I like this one is the only one not coming in off a layoff so I can make an argument for it. Unfortunately, I do not think the running pace fits decently today so it may be against the wall there.
6 ROCK CITY ROADDOG- Sizeable but not a crazy layoff here. If the rest helped, and the horse is sitting ready which the workouts say should be, then at a 9/2 ML can have some value right? Downside- this horse as ran 78 times! 10 year old horse……can it win sure- does it want to? At a short price? No thanks!! Avoid this horse and see what happens…..