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Race 1

Looks like there should be a big pace battle in here which will suit VINNY FROM DIXIE just fine. He couldn’t have looked much better in his last race. He settled a little bit off of good early fractions and then just blew by the leaders and coasted home in a fast time for the day. From an outside stalking position he very likely could do it again with these. ALWAYS WORKING is the clear 2nd choice. In his first start for his new barn he broke very slow and was way further back than he ever had been before. He actually closed well from far back, which was surprising, considering he’d only passed 1 horse down the lane in his entire career to that point. This race was also very fast for the day, and with a good break he will be a big threat. If a speed horse is able to get clear in here it probably will be CODE CHARLIE. He chased a runaway winner for a very fast first half mile in his initial start of the year and should move forward from that effort. Even if he shakes free early,  6 1/2 furlongs may be a long way for him to carry his speed.

Selections 7-6-4

Race 2

Another race where the pace looks like it will be fast and contested. SWISS SKIMMER may the right horse to take advantage. Her sprint prep here was a good one. She was behind horses and had no real clear running room for a big chunk of the race and still got beat less than 2 lengths. She’s got 7 wins and 5 seconds out of  27 starts going a mile, so this route should be to her liking. From the one hole she should be able to save ground and settle off the leaders and wait for them to tire late. INDIAN POWER had a tough trip with much better in her first start of the year. She broke slow and then tried to rush up, only to run into traffic up the backside and ran evenly from there. She’s been inconsistent going long but does have a couple of good seconds showing on her form. Trouble is the good efforts were on the front end. The two horses in here that could be battling with her early are both coming off bad efforts, so maybe she won’t have as tough of a time on the front end as it appears on paper. PORTRAY UR VISION is the wild, big price shooter who could help the exotic payoffs. She broke a little slow in her first race and actually ran on fairly well from the extreme outside. In a race that appears to have a hot pace scenario and several horses who look to be off form, she may use her finishing kick to pass a bunch of these.

Selections 1-2-8

Race 3

SADIE SUE won her first race off the claim over a year ago, and has been a disappointment since. But she looks like a stick out here, running in the lowest level of her career. From the inside she will either be sent straight to the lead or settle just off the speed horses on the outside. No matter the running style, she should be a short priced winner here. SOPHIE’S DREAM is also taking the same big drop SADIE is. SOPHIE usually lays just off the pace, but in her last race she was checked leaving the gate and was much further back than normal. She ran on some down the lane to split the field. She has 4 1/2 lengths to make up on SADIE, but a clean break might get her close. There may a pretty good battle up front and that may help NOUMEA pick up some of the pieces. She’s been away for a while, but she’s shown a pretty closing kick in her previous sprints and that might be a good style for this group. Probably can’t win, but fills out the exotics.

Selections 1-3-2

Race 4

O’S SO SERIOUS appears to have a good amount of ability, but she’s had serious trouble leaving the gate in all 3 of her starts. In her last she spotted the field a good 10 lengths and then came running to finish 3rd. The two that beat her were taking big class drops and she was well clear of the rest of group. She puts on blinkers for this start and it will be interesting to see if that helps with her gate troubles, though even with another slow break she’ll be tough to beat in here. SALSA VERDE was in a much tougher spot in her most recent race, but the time before, with a group more similar to these, she ran a closing 3rd. The horse that ran 2nd that day came back to win easily last week. If she runs back to that race, she’ll be a big factor here. The pace in here is hard to determine, but FORTUNE IN SILK has pushed fast fractions at times in her career. That early speed may be useful in here. She was hopelessly wide in her last while finishing a well beaten 4th, 7 lengths behind SERIOUS. Not sure she can win in here, but she may be able to get the early jump on the top 2.

Selections 5-3-8

Race 5

SOVEREIGN NATION has been in 2 fast duels in his career and both races had runaway winners, which may cloud his form a bit. The pace and this field may both be softer this time around. He shows a quick work last week and is a wire-to-threat in here. COOLER THAN YOU had an impressive stretch run in his last only to be disqualified. He’ll try to get his “official” maiden win in here. He needs a fast, tiring pace in front of him to get it all, but if someone can keep NATION company up front it could happen here. DERBY DREAMING closed well in his debut, but has been flat down the lane in his last two. He was fractious behind the gate in his last start and then got bumped around at the start, so maybe he has an excuse. Giving him one more chance to put a whole race together.

Selections 7-4-8

Race 6

A GOOD SNICKER had a promising racing debut under tough circumstances. Breaking from the one hole she was on the inside of a 3 horse speed duel. She outlasted the 2 she dueled with, but tired late and was passed by three horses. She’ll be fitter here and it doesn’t look like she’ll see as much pace pressure from these. A good work since her last race points to a wire-to-wire win. FORTY KNOT CURRENT actually went by SNICKER in their last. She broke bad and made a big, late, wide rally and finished full of run. Having that  first start under her belt should help her break better, but she still may be playing catch up to SNICKERS. PINCHALINCH ran 4 seconds here last season and was well bet in her first start this year. She didn’t run at all that day, but trainer Bozell has worked her 4 times since then, like he had something he was trying to get fixed on her. Her better races would be good enough to get a piece of this. One more chance

Selections 6-4-1

Race 7

Speed horses tend to get brave when they can make a clear lead and that looks like it could be the case in here for FATS DOMINUS. He couldn’t stay with a runaway winner sprinting last out, but this route race doesn’t seem to have much other pace to bother him up front. He’s had 5 wire-to-wire wins going a mile, this could be number 6. BANZE NO OESTE lost a tough one last out. He got squeezed at the break, then made a long power move to open a clear lead heading for home and then got tagged in the last jump. Unfortunately that was his 4th second in a row and he has now run 2nd or 3rd in his last 7 tries. If the pace is honest, a well timed ride could get the job done. ATYPIQUE is another one who hasn’t seen the winners circle in a while, but he’s also never run anywhere near this cheap before. His two starts this season were even efforts for twice this tag. He usually is up pretty close to the lead and the expected soft pace should help that running style.

Selections 5-9-8

Race 8

FOR HIM ran a strong race in his last. He sat a bit off of a fast first half mile, made a strong move on the turn and was outfinished late. The pace looks like it will be on the slow side in here and HIM has had wire-to-wire wins in his past. This race should give him a good chance to be on top of the speed from the break. PULPITS POWER chased a hot pace and then flattened out a bit late in a little tougher sprint last out. He also has wire-to-wire routes wins in his past, and he should be on top of the leaders in here as well. AQUA FRIO would be no surprise. After a year and a half away from the races he returned in a tougher sprint and finished fairly well despite some traffic troubles. Obviously FRIO was once much better than these and with a 6 furlong work since that first race, this may be the money run right here.

Selections 8-5-2

Race 9

Another race with a potential pace meltdown looming. BEAU ROCKS is probably the most reliable closing sprinter in here, and will like a hot pace in front of him. BEAU wants to settle back and make one run, but the slow pace in her first sprint her took her out of her game. With 3-4 speed types here, she should be able to go back to her favorite style and tag them late. The same thing applies to CHOTEAU. In her first start of the season she had no hope of catching a 3-2 favorite who walked to a 4 length lead by the turn, but she did the best she could from there to get up for 2nd. There should be a way different set up in here, and she should find herself running after some tired front runners down the lane. PERFECT PROMISE won easily in her last. But if you’re the big favorite and are handed a 4 1/2 length lead after going the first half mile in 46.31 aren’t you supposed draw off down the lane? It’s hard to see the same circumstances today. She draws outside the other speed horses, which is helpful, but she’s never shown any stalking ability before. Guessing she’ll get bet way down from her morning line, and maybe she’ll run off and hide again, but I’ll risk eating crow if she does it again  this time.

Selections 4-7-6

Race 10

It doesn’t take a lot of imagination to come up with up with a horse that is 3 for 3 at the meet, but everything seems to point to OMACHE KID getting another “W”. With the 2 need-the-lead types on the outside both looking like 6 1/2 furlongs is a real stretch, this race has to be won from off the pace, and OMACHE fits the bill. He most likely will be sitting closer to the lead than the other closers and his 3 wins here show that if it’s close at the wire, he’s going to squeak out the win. MIRROR IMAGE showed a good finishing kick while running in No Cal. He’s raced on synthetic for the last 10 months, but his form shows a first and a good second when running on dirt, so the track won’t be a factor. He’s had 19 first or second finishes in 45 starts, so he to will make someone run to beat him. SCOUT PATROL showed a lot of improvement the last portion of last season’s Emerald meet. He faced tougher in his first start this season and, as seems to be the norm here, he broke slow from the one hole. He ran pretty evenly from there and with a better break from a better post, a race under his belt and the drop in class he could be passing a good number of these down the lane.

Selections 3-2-4

Race 11

A wide open, bottom level maiden race awaits anyone who got thru the first 4 legs of the carryover sized Pick 5. A big score could be on the line and I wouldn’t feel too comfortable unless I was alive to more than half this field. FRENCH COAST ran in some tough maiden races in his first four starts of his career, before dropping to the bottom in his first start here. The winner of that heat drew off, but COAST closed well late after racing on the far outside around the turn. There may still be improvement coming with this guy and he’s got to be a top contender in here. MENSCH has had a lot of tries, but he is one of only 2 horses in here to get beat less than double digit lengths in his last start, so, by default, he’s one of the ones to look at with this group. He’s not particularly quick, but he still should be laying pretty close to the suspect speed horses in here. RENO ROY chased a horse who was taking a huge drop in his last. The winner blitzed them in a fast time, but ROY wasn’t beaten much for second, and that second place finisher came back to win his next out. It’s tough to find anyone in here who is quick early, so expecting to see ROY trying to win this from near the front end.

Selections 11-5-10