DISCLAIMER- Short writeups this week- work has been insane with the Covid-19 and I am way behind.
Hey everyone, Bryan Doranski here for Friday at Oaklawn Park! Ok, last week was a nice profitable week with a nice $31.20 winner on the day in race 4. Also gave out the late p4/- which paid a handsome $519. The p5 you could have had after the scratch in race 6 to my top choice, adding in Dunph for a nice $5,500 on a reasonable $121 ticket. We are making our way to profitability for the meet. Still a way to go. The one that hurt was race 8, a $28.00 winner was my third choice, so did not get that win money, but was there for the horizontals. Overall, the column had the winners in 8/10 races!! Let us keep it going!!!
Hopefully the big rains stay away for this card, just a sprinkle or two.
Last Week ago: 10-1-3-2 10% (6/10 ITM) ($20 wagered, $31.20 returned net +11.20) $3.12 ROI on $2 Win Bets
Oaklawn 2020: 100-19-19-11 19.0% (51/100 ITM) ($200 wagered, $147 returned) net -$53.00) $1.47 ROI on $2 Win Bets
Enjoy the races and give me a follow-on Twitter @BDHorseplayer-
Race 1
10 BRAVURA CREEK-Stretches out after a game effort 3 weeks ago. Canchari stays aboard, and with the progression in every start, expecting a step forward today to win.
12 BLANCO BRONCO- This gelding has experience at this distance, and that’s the big reason for my selection. Also has weight allowance which should help- needs a step up in effort from the previous 8 to overcome this post.
5 ROCKTHEPULPIT- I took this horse when it failed 2 weeks ago, and the price is still short. Interesting move on the stretch out here but tried this distance in February and was game. Too short to be a top pick, but have to use in the horizontals.
.Race 2
7 VIOLENT STORM- Nice improving efforts in 2020 for this 5-year-old gelding. In the month 50% at Oaklawn for career. Add in Santana Jr and Asmussen, expect a short price.
4 DEFENDER- Baze on the mount for Mason Ingrid, who has a quiet decent meet. Nice improvement in last start, capable of better. Muddy effort in Feb was outstanding. ( IF OFF TRACK TOP PICK)
10 HEALING- Nice workouts since the Feb 9 effort at Fairground. Maker ships this gelding in, and has the most room for improvement in only the 3rd start of the 3 year old campaign. Debating making top selection on a fast track. Needs to step up to win though.
Race 3
2 GLOBUS- Has an early pace advantage and should be able to get an easy lead. Switch to Cohen should be able to save some energy on an easy rail leading trip, hold on to finish. Carries heavy weight today which is a concern.
12 DESCENT- Ok this horse stands out on pedigree but has not done much beyond that. Never in the money, but today’s spotting is much softer. Could be a decent price but given who has lost to, wouldn’t be surprised in the ML is cut in half.
10 MR. UNUSUAL- Not a huge fan of this horse but Joel Rosario on what should be a pressing trip- why not. Needs to improve quite a bit from the March 22nd effort, but a month for a 3 year old is a lot of time and Sadler has them ready.
Race 4
14 DANGERFIELD- If draws in, I may single and move on. Tried allowance company and failed so returns to the claiming ranks. Hollendorfer has had a decent meet, the post position isn’t friendly but not impossible.
8 D’URBAN PARK- In 2018, this gelding’s best effort wins today. 3rd from a long layoff today, nice price expected. Another step forward to that old form and will be a great bet.
5 SENOR BLANCO- Very consistent horse in 33 career starts. Not going to impress but if this falls apart from the 1 and 4 running early, it is possible this horse is close to the lead and steals it. Talamo is leading the meet and stands to be close and in a good spot.
Race 5
5 CHOCTAW CHARLIE- I want this filly to win for us. I liked her before and return on her today. I like seeing that conditioning work after the last start after showing good form. Switch to Rosario today is interesting and gets a weight allowance!
6 PROUD VICTORIA- Recent workouts have not impressed since that effort in February, but was a slow pace that day, and she didn’t have a great shot. Easier spot today, probable favorite.
7 GET ONE MORE- Everyone is going to be on SEKANI- but this filly ran a good effort last month in debut and won. First time facing winners, but its been 2 months off, and conditioning should continue in form.
Race 6
8 FIRST CITIZEN- Easy single here- but I did that last week and failed too. I can look at this colt and say a bounce could occur after that huge effort last month at a very short price. We could look elsewhere for some value if we prefer to start this leg with a price.
2 SLEW TANG CLAN- This isn’t Houston Hornsby…….but if they manage to go too fast and FIRST CITIZEN flops, then perhaps this colt can clean up the mess.
5 TRINITY THUNDAH- So here is a horse at a price that could be up front. If for some reason the 4 does not want to run early, Cohen could find himself alone out there. If that happens and the colt takes a step forward like he did the first time Cohen rode….watch out at double digits.
Race 7
3 SUMMER REVOLUTION- They are calling for snow near me tonight, so I take this horse for name reasons. Oh yea, some huge Beyers in the spring before. 2nd start from the layoff, should step forward.
5 JUNIOR GILLIAM- So, I said back class last time- I will repeat myself. 2/3 in the money at Oaklawn . Cruz is still winning at 12%, just would have liked to see Hartman at a higher clip. Hopefully, some value stays.
7 R FAST LIFE- I will go with R SOMEWHAT LIFE. Could benefit from Roberts on the mount and getting some extra weight. Last effort disappointed, but a bounce back today could win. Granted it is a wish and not good handicapping. Don’t see much why horse would improve today.
Race 8
3 EARLY MISCHIEF- This gelding has won 2 in last 3 tries. Ships in from Fairgrounds so could be a bit tougher company today, but hard to pass up the pace play here with the form this horse is in.
2 CURATE- Disappointing last month but horse has the past running lines to be considered here as a likely winner. I don’t want to go too deep in the race. Peter Miller has been ok at Oaklawn, will be curious to see how the horse responds to the slight class drop.
Race 9
7 MAN IN THE CAN- Needs to improve to win, but Rosario on the mount tells me Ron Moquett likes the form this horse is in. Gets a few pounds from several in the field and comes from allowance company. Could just be too slow in the first ½ but at 8-1 ML I am willing to pay to see.
10 ZAINO BOYZ- Talamo!!!! A lot of speed here and this colt likes to be up front. This can be a very short horse but rightfully so. Workouts are really nice on this horse as well.
Race 10
4 RULER OF THE NILE- This horse likes Oaklawn but that last effort was very flat. Got some time off and returns today but the workouts are lackluster. At 4-1 ML with these works it could be disappointing. Fits on pace and finishing ability though.
2 SCRUTINZIER- If for some reason RULER OF THE NILE doesn’t run I like this gelding to be out front early. Has finished in the past but recently has been flat at best.
3 CODETOWN- If the above get a pace duel, I think CODETOWN can be there cleaning up the pieces. Pretty short race, and I might feel silly going this deep in what should be a 2 horse affair.