Hey everyone, Bryan Doranski here for Friday at Oaklawn Park! For the win bettor, what a horrible week, as we lost $1.20 if we flat bet it all, but we would have hit the late pick 4 and pick 5- and could have stood to profit over $700. All said in the 9 races last week I had 7 winners pegged, just not all as my top pick. Two really hurt me, the 4th race the 2 was squeezed out and just quit running, inquiry did not help us at all and race 9 Subiaco- facing winners for the first time with a huge win at a juicy price. Overall, it was a solid week, and one showing some profit for horizontal players. I can say, if the Daily Gallop will have me back writing, I think rather than flat betting, I would be better served listing wagers for each race, as flat betting, can be difficult at times especially on races we don’t like.
Last Week ago: 9-3-2-1 33.3% (6/9 ITM) ($18 wagered, $16.8 returned net -1.20) $1.86 ROI on $2 Win Bets
Oaklawn 2020: 90-18-16-9 20.0% (45/90 ITM) ($180 wagered, $115.8 returned) net -$64.2) $1.28 ROI on $2 Win Bets
Enjoy the races and give me a follow-on Twitter @BDHorseplayer-
Race 1
1 DRC ALL INCLUSIVE- I have used this horse before and its an interesting spot after a game 3rd last month in the slop. Problem here is we never know what we are going to get with this horse, a top effort can win today at a nice price for us. Like the move to Santana Jr and should benefit if the rail holds like it today on Thursday.
4 P R RADIO STAR- Back to back winners for this gelding having a great meet at Oaklawn in 2020. Makes his for start for the Diodoro barn and should be able to repeat what he did back in March. Changes to Mojica here over Vazquez, carries weight though, so that is a negative a touch for me.
3 RECOUNT- 16 starts at Oaklawn with 11 in the money finishes. Horse seems to like it here and has performed in allowance company this meet with respectable efforts. Timothy Martin is not having a great meet here, and probably why this horse is my 3rd choice today.
.
Race 2
1 DIXIE WAYNE- The effort on Mar 13 and the subsequent works doesn’t excite me, however I think this whole field is sketchy at best. A good trip here with Elliot in the irons could benefit us at a healthy 6-1 ML.
4 RICH PRINCESS- Hard to back this ML favorite, considering this entire field, but might have found something last out. What I don’t like is no reported works over the last month, which could make this a paid workout type effort. If it gets to short might have to pass.
10 MOCHA KISS- I will admit I am swinging a bit here with this one. Huge weight allowance on a horse that faced really fast fractions early out last and still could not finish. Workout 2 weeks ago seems like the horse could be fit and ready, with Kelsi on the mount at a nice price, I will include here.
Race 3
14- SUPER TERRIFIC- putting this gelding on top, hoping to see him draw in. Drops in class a touch after an okay showing 12 days ago but carries a lot of weight for a horse that likes to stalk early. Could benefit from some cheap speed out in front pushing the pace to get a good trip. Fear is getting stuck wide at a short price.
5 RIDE TO THE WIRE- Ok, last week I was good on a layoff horse, and here is this 5 year old after 18 months on the barn. Nice works through the winter before a tiring debut in February. Now third start from the layoff, little weight allowance and Roberts aboard. Could be worth it if it holds near the ML.
6 ADMIRAL BROWN- Logical spot here for the Broberg entry and could be the most consistent horse in this field. 3rd start from the reported gelding, in the money 2 out of 3 starts here at Oaklawn, so a must use if playing the verticals.
Race 4
4 SOUTHERN CENTS- Oh the places this filly has seen. Been all over the classes this meet trying to find a handle without much success. Should be able to get a nice trip behind the 8 and 9 and hopefully have enough left for the stretch drive. Has wont at this distance for maiden breaker effort before going up too far in class last time. I can forgive that effort versus better at a 12-1 ML.
6 GHAALEB’S STORM- 3rd career start here improving each time. Not crazy about the switch to De La Cruz, but John Cox has had a respectable meet I suppose. Another logical step forward and could find the winners circle today. Add in that nice weight allowance, and worth a swing.
1 WEEKEND MADNESS- I went back and forth here on who my 3rd choice would be, and I just cannot support the horses that drew out wide in this 2-turn race. Too many questions for bad trips in my opinion. Cohen will have this filly sitting pretty in a good spot, its just a question of what she needs to win. Her best effort was in a moderate pace race, so not sure entirely if she’s a closer or a mid-pack plodder, so 4-1 might be short for me on the ML.
Race 5
3 BETO- That race last month at Fairgrounds is proving to be too much and produces multiple next out winners. Amoss had a good day Thursday and with Talamo aboard here I highly doubt we get close to this 5-1 ML. Nice workouts since that last start, could be a single here in horizontals for me.
13 KAPELLMEISTER- If this gelding draws in, I could be interested. I severely doubt the Beyer that was earned at Delta in February as the horse has flopped since, but on the off chance that is a good number, with a HUGE weight allowance and Bailey in the irons, I take a swing. Even possible with the allowance we see them send early and try to get a bold loose horse.
Race 6
3 ORO DE TEJANO- First trip to Oaklawn, which has proven a bad decision for others, but the pedigree and the Amoss train match up well for a gelding in good form. The workouts suggest a big effort, at a 7-2 ML, Well worth it. With the workouts at Keeneland, it could be safe to assume they had other plans before COVID-19 struck down the country.
1A- GOOD SCOUT- What a winter this colt has had, and I expect more good things today. Coming along nice and slow and makes debut start for Westermann off the claim. This is a good angle for Ronald and something to consider. Tack on a 10-1 ML and I have wide eyes here. Could be swinging a touch, but what isn’t to like?
6- VERVE’S HUMOR- I admit, I like this horse more than I should considering the efforts we saw in 2019. Workouts over the winter appear solid and dare I say improved from that 4-year-old campaign. Finds much easier company here, but a tough start from the layoff.
Race 7
5 TIGHT TEN- Scared to use an Asmussen horse has he was cold before closing out Thursday with the late double. Nice last out race for this colt, and a quartet of decent works has me excited with a 6-1 ML. I think gets bet down a lot more than that, but this 4-year-old has a pedigree that many would like to have in their barn. I will even venture to point out the back class this colt has in some big 2-year-old races in 2018.
2 SO ALIVE- Presser/Closer here should have plenty of pace to close into provided the front runners don’t scratch out. That effort at Fairgrounds was fair and is proving to be a tough race with that winner moving on to win Stakes last month with a huge 98 Beyer.
8 EBBEN- David Fawkes is hitting at 19% here, and this horse had some nice efforts 2 years ago before being sidelined for a year. Conditioning seems a problem with the efforts in the running lines, but the April 2 effort and a high hitting jockey with a smaller barn, is always worth a look.
Race 8
2 STRONG FLAG- Usually I would try to beat this filly, but I just can’t do it. Facing winners for the first time, also a big no for me, but the efforts we have seen here are impressive. Cuts 1/16th off the race this time, and if last out was an indicator could benefit. Was a muddy track that day, so slower fractions, but has graded stakes win in a sibling, could be coming into her best.
3 PIECE OF MY HEART- Broke maiden at Fairgrounds in the slop and comes here with a horrible workout in April. McLean Robertson could be hiding this one, as the numbers indicate should have seen better morning activity. 10-1 seems silly watching her win in February, and worth a look today.
4 DAWN’S DANCER- First dirt start, but with Curlin being the sire, I don’t foresee problems taking to it. Martin Garcia aboard for Chris Davis who has hit at 18% this year but makes Oaklawn 2020 debut today.
Race 9
4 CANDY CORNELL- Seems to enjoy Oaklawn, with great showings all winter, and was the benefactor of a very quick pace last out. Don’t think he needs that red type fractions to win, with a moderate class drop here, 5-2 seems appropriate, although post time expecting lower. If you go only by Beyer’s should romp this field.
9 PRINCIPE GUILHERME- Horse has given huge efforts on mud and slop this winter with 3 in the money finishes in 5 tries at Oaklawn. Talamo on the mount for Chris Richard who has been 10% at Oaklawn but 30% elsewhere. 2 Works since last raced and very solid numbers, that I would expect to see for a sprinter.
3 ABSOLUTELY AIDEN- This ML feels wrong, but the workouts tell a story of a horse with no recent form today. On the flip side, some good efforts in late 2019 that make this horse a cover my ticket kind of situation in horizontals.
Race 10
What this a race 10? Where am I? I am so confused right now- I am hunting for a first-time starter to win here. The field is questionable about consistency and running to par, so I am looking for something to surprise me.
1 READY N WAITING- These works are too much for me to ignore. If Asmussen truly did get out of his funk, I want this filly and Baze on the rail in the finale. Constitution sire out of a Mr. Greeley dam- 5-1 is a gift, and hopefully the Baffert entry gives us some value.
2 INSHANNITY- Welcome to Arkansas Bob Baffert!! Nice reported works for this filly, as a Ghostzapper sire. Carries a bit more weight with the extra year of age, but one thing I know is do not discount Baffert- most likely the post time favorite.
8 OFFERING- The other Asmussen with Santana Jr aboard. I would expect this one to be ignored at the window a touch given the last work effort and not nearly the same pedigree as the 2 others I mentioned. Would not surprise a good trip and win for the 18% Santana Jr.