Monmouth Park Racing Analysis — Saturday, May 4, 2019, by Jeff Byrnes

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Race 1: MAIDEN CLAIMING $40,000 – $30,000, One Mile (Turf)

Picks: 2-3-5
Off turf: 3-5-6
Participation Cup (#2): Makes a return to Monmouth Park where he has a 3rd in his only run over the track. He has four straight superfecta finishes and will get pace to chase. Has the turf experience over the favorite. 
Known But to God (#3): Makes turf debut today but connections likely want a sloppy track. Pedigree suggests turf should not be a problem, drops into maiden claiming for the first time. Big class drop, must use. 
Pinchot (#5): Drops to $30,000 company today and faces much weaker competition than he faced in the past. Another horse possibly looking for an off track. Needs pace to chase. 


Race 2: CLAIMING $6,000 – $5,000, 1 Mile And Seventy Yards
Picks: 5-3-2
Postino’s Champion (#5): Two wins at the distance, two wins at Monmouth Park. This horse will be among the pace setters. Among the highest beyer numbers than any other horse in the field. Will be tough. 
Don’s Escapade (#3): Five of his seven wins have come at Monmouth Park. Good workouts and a big class drop to $6,000 will give this horse a edge on the competition. 
Likeagirl (#2): Won at the $6,000 level two starts back and only start at Monmouth produced a 2nd place finish. Trevor McCarthy gets the call and has a great shot to win. 


Race 3: MAIDEN CLAIMING $25,000 – $20,000 Six Furlongs 
Picks: 4-7-5

Never Felt Better (#4): Ships in from Aqueduct and faces much weaker today. Last time he blew the start and still managed to get 2nd. Now with a good post and good record on an off track, he looks to be a must play. 
Gadago (#7): Gets outside post and has plenty of speed, likely has to go from outside. Has good showings on off track. Live longshot. 
Lucky Lover Boy: (#5): Was 2nd last time out at Parx going two turns, cuts back to sprint where he faces much weaker and has a speed edge. Trevor McCarthy gets the call. Must use. 


Race 4: STARTER OPTIONAL CLAIMING $12,500 – $6,250       One Mile And Seventy Yards
Picks: 2-7-8

Lost Iron: (#2): Two of his four wins have come on an off track. He is a stakes who will watch the early pace, can save ground from the inside and come with late run. 
Rol Again Question: (#7): Won the only start of his career at this distance and has won 3 out of his last five starts. He’s one of one at Monmouth Park. Distance should suit him well. 
Super Fleet (#8): Has a win and two seconds at this distance. Turned in fast workout last week at Parx. Outside post gives him a place to go in the first turn. Has plenty of speed and will try to wire them. 


Race 5: ALLOWANCE $45,000 1 1/16 (Turf)
Picks: 6-5-8 Off turf: 4-3-10
Ellyb (#6): Placed 5th in allowance race featuring good horses last time time out. Has Trevor McCarthy aboard and should be on a turf course she should love. Good workouts coming in and great connections. 
I’m Listening (#5): Winner in her last start at Gulfstream Park. Good workouts coming in she will get some pace to run into, Trainer is 17% with horses off two months or more. Goes two turns for the first time, should not be a problem. 
Warm (#8): Ran a very credible 2nd last time at Tampa Bay and makes second start on turf. Has faced far better than in here. She will be among the leaders early on. Antonio Gallardo gets the call, must use. 


Race 6: ALLOWANCE OPTIONAL CLAIMING $12,500 6 Furlongs
Picks: 13-3-11
Visionary Ruler (#13): Second time in the barn of Jorge Navarro, Navarro is 35% with horses second time in. Has five wins at Monmouth, and ten wins at this distance. Must use. 
Smithwick’s Spice (#3): First or second in all three starts. Was second in a stakes race last time, but that was eight months ago. Good workouts coming in, could use the race. 
Party on Prospect (#11): Ships in from New York and in a new barn for the first time, where the trainer is 18% with horses first after the claim. Has closer’s speed in a field with a lot of speed. Will be a live longshot. 


Race 7: Cliff Hanger Stakes. $100,000 One Mile (Turf)
Picks: 1-4-2 Off turf: 6-3-5
Hawish (#1): Graded Stakes winner returned off a long layoff to finish 2nd in the Appleton. He needed the race and comes in here in better form, gets the rail and will be able to save ground. Three for four at the distance. He’s ready to go. 
Projected (#4): Faces a much shorter, much less competitive field today and gets back in graded stakes company. Monmouth Park should be a good kick start to his year. Chad Brown is 27% shipping this year and is as consistent as they come. Must use. 
All Right (#2): Had a troubled trip in Keeneland allowance race and comes back in tough spot. Connections have a lot of confidence shipping in off loss in allowance company. He has a win and second at this distance. 


Race 8:  MAIDEN SPECIAL WEIGHT $45,000,  Six Furlongs
  Picks: 5-6-3
Rock It Tothemoon (#5): Was 5th at Gulfstream Park on debut and comes back in great spot. Will get pace to chase and gets a middle post. Good workouts coming in. 
Bay Bay Drive (#6): Makes career debut for a trainer whose 9% with debut runners. Has turned in big workouts at Monmouth, good chance. 
Shackled Romance (#3): Was 3rd in second career now cuts down to six furlongs and needs plenty of speed. Trainer is 16% shipping. Good works at Parx and should relish the distance. 

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