Monmouth Park Racing Analysis — Saturday, July 20, 2019, by Jeff Byrnes

Haskell Day on the Jersey Shore! Very hot temperatures throughout the day. Stay hydrated!

Race 1: ALLOWANCE OPTIONAL CLAIMING $30,000
5 1/2 Furlongs (Turf)
Picks: 2-1-4

Posse Needed (#2): Ships down to Monmouth Park and drops down in class to face this group today. Always in the top 5 in his career. Shorter distance and a ground saving trip will help. Joe Bravo is aboard and pedigree suggest turf should be fine. Big play.

Valuable Package (#1): Went wire to wire here at Monmouth last time out and from the inside, will likely go to front again. Only start with Paco Lopez aboard was a win. Speed and consistent, must use.

Captain Sam (#4): Makes grass debut and has plenty of speed in short race. Luis Saez jumps aboard for the first time. Off the board only once in 2019, better trip in store. Live long shot.

Race 2: ALLOWANCE OPTIONAL CLAIMING $16,000
1 mile & 70 Yards
Picks: 8-7-6

Bay Bay Drive (#8): Won second time out and goes two turns for the first time. Trainer is 17% routing for first time and 20% sprinting to routing. Gets Jose Lezcano for the first time. Will need a good trip from the outside.

Three to Thirteen (#7): Drops down in class and has a win and a 3rd in two starts at Monmouth Park. Can win on the lead or off the pace. Kelly Breen is 21% shipping and having a great meet.

Guns of Steel (#6): Two seconds in career at Monmouth Park and 12 of 18 career wins have come at this distance. Plenty of speed but better competition today.

Race 3: CLAIMING $12,500 – $10,500 One Mile (Turf)
Picks: 8-5-2

Bold Daddy (#8): Ships in from Belmont and drops down two classes, where the trainer is 32%. Will get a good pace to chase in front of him. Two of three career wins have come at Monmouth Park. Live chance.

Total Tap (#5): Winner of two of last three starts and two four wins have come at this distance. Good jockey/ trainer combination. Plenty of speed from this one. Might have to catch him.

Mission Driven (#2): Enjoys the Monmouth turf course. Will get plenty of pace to chase and will be flying late. High beyers throughout career. Good chance.

Race 4: MAIDEN SPECIAL WEIGHT $47,500
6 Furlongs
Picks: 6-2-3

Confess (#6): Makes career debut for trainer Jason Servis. Servis is 20% debuting and 32% in sprints. Good works coming in and expected to show speed. Good chance.

Game Boy Benny (#2): A second and two 3rds in three starts at Monmouth Park. Good speed from the inside and ran a high 90 beyer last out. Has good works coming in and flashy speed.

Ink Spoltz (#3): Will show speed and get a good draw. Field isn’y the best, but has flashes of potential. Live longshot.

Race 5: G3 $150,000 Oceanport Stakes 1 1/16 (Turf)
Picks: 3-1-6

Dover Cliffs (#3): With little speed in this field, Dover Cliffs could go to the lead and never look back. Won going gate to wire last out and has posted good works coming in. If he can set moderate fractions. He’s got a big chance. Live longshot. \

Divisidero (#1): Multiple G1 winner who is the class of the field. He has a couple seconds in last few starts. Highest beyers in the field. Will need pace to chase. Class could put him over the top.

Just Howard (#6): Three of five wins have come at this distance. Running against graded stakes runner in the past. A lot of class and will get a pace setup, he will be coming late.

Race 6: ALLOWANCE OPTIONAL CLAIMING $16,000
6 Furlongs
Picks: 2-7-3

Arcelor (#2): Four of wins wins have come at the distance. Good speed from inside and some success with Luis Saez. Trainer is 32% in sprints. Good speed figures. Must use.

Whip Me into Shape (#7): Two of three wins came at this distance. Fast horse who will have to get away quick from outside.

Agora (#3): 3 for 4 at Monmouth Park and comes off a win last time out. Trainer is 17%with last out winners. One finish outside top 4 in last 11 starts.

Race 7: ALLOWANCE OPTIONAL CLAIMING $16,000
1 1/16 (Turf)
Picks: 4-1-5

Dull Knife (#4): Bad stumble last out cost him a good run. Gets John Velazquez today nd should be in great position. Todd Pletcher barn coming around at right time. He is 25% in allowance races. Must use.

Digital Footprint (#1): Won at Belmont last out going wire to wire. Gets the rail and the short way around. With Steve Asmussen for first time, he is 22% first after the claim. Luis Saez aboard, one of best turf riders in country.

Freedom Matters (#5): 1st or 2nd in both starts at Monmouth Park. Good speed on the front end. Fast works coming in. Appreciates the Monmouth turf course. Outside chance.

Race 8: G3 $150,000 Molly Pitcher Stakes 1 1 /16 (Dirt)
Picks: 3-2-1

Midnight Bisou (#3): What more is there to say? She is the class of the field. 4 for 4 in 2019, 2 G1s, a perfect 8 for 8 at the distance, and never outside the top 3 in 15 career starts. This race is merely a prep for the G1 Personal Ensign at Saratoga in August. All Class, will be shocker if she loses.

Coach Rocks (#2): Grade stakes winner who was a sharp allowance winner last out at Churchill. Showed new dimension going to the front and not looking back. Dale Romans isn’t afraid to take a chance. She is in good form and deserves respect.

Pacific Wind (#1): Much better but slowly regressed since coming to Chad Brown. The trip to Monmouth with the tight turns and the inside should do her good. Gets Joe Bravo for the first time and has good works coming in. We’ll see.

Race 9: $75,000 Wolf Hill Stakes 5 1/2 Furlongs (Turf)
Picks: 1-7-4

Regal Image (#1): Has won 3 of 5 starts in 2019 and has come into his own. Will get the railing has high cruising speed. Has a win at this distance. Trainer is 15% in non graded stakes races. Training very well coming in, if he gets to front, he could be live. Live longshot.

Justaholic (#7): Winner at Monmouth last time out in grass debut. Trainer is 25% 2nd off the layoff. Good gate speed but will have to work a trip from outside.

Fig Jelly (#4): Plenty of stakes experience and has good works coming in. Trainer is 25% in non graded stakes races. Luis Saez is aboard and could be one to close late.

Race 10: $200,000 Monmouth Cup 1 1/8 (Dirt)
Picks: 3-4-7

Coal Front (#3): The Godolphin Mile winner stretches out to longest distance of career. Has a two turn win at Oaklawn earlier this year. All class and big heart. This colt has six wins with John Velazquez aboard. With good break and trip, he should power home.

Monogahela (#4): Won the Iselin last time out at Monmouth going away. Got a ground saving trip and powered away. Faces tougher company today and reunites with Jose Lezcano. Trainer is 33% with last out winners. Veteran stakes performer will be around at the end. Won with 104 beyer last out.

Bay Harbour (#7): Has hit the board in all three starts at Monmouth Park. Was 3rd and 2nd in last to starts. Willget a good pace to chase and gets big money Mike Smith for the first time. Big plus.

Race 11: G3 $150,000 Matchmaker Stakes 1 1/8 (Turf)
Picks: 3-6-4

Valedictorian (#3): Won the Eatontown at Monmouth last time out. Loves the Monmouth Park turf course and gets better with every start. Not a lot of pace so expect her in front again. If so, she could go a long way.

Competitionofideas (#6): Past G1 winner has been 2nd in both starts in 2019. Both in New York. Joe Bravo gets aboard for the first time. Will get pace to chase. Class of the field. Chad Brown is 23% in graded stakes races.

Touring (#4): Grade 1 winner in Brazil makes her U.S debut for Graham Motion today. He is 29% with imports from overseas. Very classy filly with good works. We’ll see how good she is today.

Race 12: $1,000,000 Haskell Invitational 1 1/8 (Dirt)
Picks: 5-7-1

Mucho Gusto (#5): Mucho Gusto is coming into his own. After a sdisappointing run in the Sunland Derby, Baffert gave him a breather and brought him back with two very easy wins at Santa Anita. Training well in the mornings and will get a good pace setup in front of him. Bob Baffert has eight Haskell wins and is looking for more. He is 31% shipping and 33% with last out winners. Must use.

Maximum Security (#7): Maximum Security got pace pressure last time out and couldn’t hold off King for a Day. He ran a solid race in defeat and is coming into this race in good form. Training well in the morning and has a blowout work to get ready. Will likely go from outside but has the class and talent to get it done. Must win for him today.

King for a Day (#1): King for a Day has gotten better with every start and beat Maximum Security last out in the Pegasus. He can win o the lead or sit just off the pace. From the one hole, he will be sent from the inside and will get a ground saving trip. If he can run to his last start, he will have a big chance.

Race 13: ALLOWANCE OPTIONAL CLAIMING $16,000
1 1/16 (Turf)
Picks: 5-3-2

Race 14: MAIDEN SPECIAL WEIGHT $47,500
6 Furlongs
Picks: 5-3-1

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