MOBINE – thedailygallop@gmail.com – Gmail
| I’m going to focus entirely on the wagering part of tonight’s card, assuming most of you have done or can do their own handicapping. Let me know if this is helpful or not and I’ll do it going forward. I’M GOING TO FOCUS ON THE PICK 5 SEQUENCE, AND HOW I WOULD BUILD A TICKET(S) FOR THE SEQUENCE, BASED ON MY OWN HANDICAPPING, BUT IT’LL GIVE YOU AN IDEA OF HOW TO PLUG YOUR OWN HANDICAPPING INTO A SEQUENCE, LIKE A PICK 5. LET’S BREAK IT DOWN RACE 1 A) 4 BIG BOY ROSCO is going to be my A, how deep I go with him will depend on price, if he’s 5-1 I’ll use the others, if he’s favored, I’ll just use him more and less with the others. B) 1 SHE’S GOT PIZAZZ is a solid B as I know we’ll get a fair price, 5 HEY LIVVY is the ML Choice and does figure to take money, which is why she’s not my A, I like to be different RACE 2 A) 3 THINK AGAIN – should be the right price of the contenders B) 2 LEVY TAYLORE the best price of the remaining contenders, 1 MASTER SMILE, outside chance to upset RACE 3 A) 2 DERF HANOVER is going to be my single, I give he and 5 similar chance, and I think there’s an outside chance that he goes favored, with it being a blind pool bc of Race 3, he won’t be P4 favored, more than likely, so while I’ll probably lose 40% of the time, I’m okay with that, 2 DERF HANOVER is the one I’ll take a stand with and single RACE 4 A) Everyone I use is going to be an A in here, I find this the toughest race, and none of them will really offer value, so I consider this a “get through” leg, preferably with a price. I WILL USE 13578. RACE 5 A) 3 SPARK A DREAM and 5 BATTING STATS. I have a strong opinion, I want the 3 on the class drop to the bottom condition, and if he doesn’t win, I expect the 5 to be very tough. I’ll use both as As. B) 7 BARNEY MAC & 8 ESQUIRE have outside shots, I’ve already singled earlier in the sequence, I’ll use both as Bs as non-chalk chances. MY PICK 5 SUGGESTIONS 4 / 3 / 2 / 13578 / 35 FOR $2 on .20c Ticket 14 / 123 / 2 / 13578 / 3578 FOR $24 on .20c Ticket 45 / 23 / 2 / 13578 / 3578 FOR $16 on .20c Ticket TOTAL COST $42 BEST OF LUCK, I PREVIEWED THE FIRST 5 RACES ON THE CARD AS WELL TO BET INDIVIDUALLY. RACE 1 BETTING PREVIEW 1 SHE’S GOT PIZAZZ was an okay price last week but with the move inside after the long first try last week, I’d imagine people are going to leave her alone tonight, more interesting if 10-1 or more 2 STORMONT CHARLOTTE almost got the job done last week, and is likely to be overbet tonight because of it, anything less than 7-2 is a big underlay 3 DONATO LANE was badly beaten at 2-1, not sure how high he’ll be tonight, $8-10 range seems fair if you get it 4 BIG BOY ROSCO may win, but he’s probably going to be overbet tonight, a chance he’s favored, and if that’s the case….play against ON TOP 5 HEY LIVVY was 10-1 two starts ago and should have won, grossly overbet from the 9 hole and a no try, tonight gets the better post and they’ll probably come for her again tonight, pass as the chalk, but if 5 or 6-1, usable 6 SHIVERED might take some early $$ but figures to drift into double-digit territory 7 GLIDER MAN will just try to complete the mile as the longest shot on the board WAGERING SUGGESTIONS 5 HEY LIVVY at 6-1 1 SHE’S GOT PIZAZZ AT 10-1 15 / 15 / 234 / 234 15 / 234 / 15 / 234 RACE 2 1 MASTER SMILE seems right at the 7-1 range 2 LEVY TAYLORE hasn’t fired the last two, back to Henry tonight, at 5-1 consider 3 THINK AGAIN was 3.30-1 last time at this level, you won’t get 8-1 or close, but if you do, use 4 CHEYENNE FORD will be right around the ML probably, if higher than 7-2, that’s fair 5 CROCODILE CANYON won’t be bet off that mile last week, will he? 7-2 range is fair if you get it and can forgive the last 6 GOLD STAR DIABLO is the wild card, honestly have no idea how they’ll bet him which makes the race hard to have a strong opinion on, my best guess….8-1?? WAGERING SUGGESTIONS: 3 THINK AGAIN AT 4-1 2 LEVY TAYLORE AT 5-1 23 / 23 / 14 / 14 23 / 14 / 23 / 14 RACE 3 1 MONOPOLY changed tactics last week and rallied for 3rd, at 8-1 is fair enough to try 2 DERF HANOVER ships in after facing seemingly tougher, COULD go favored 3 FLY BEYOND was a long first over 2nd into the chalk last week, overbet tonight bc of that, underlay at 9-2 4 VANQUISH KRONOS is the wild card, no idea if they’ll come from her, strongly against anyway at short odds, 7-2 seems crazy low to me 5 BAUTISTA will be favored once again, how short do you take? 5-2 would be fair 6 PERFETTO is fine at 4-1 or more, you’ll get more than that tonight WAGERING SUGGESTIONS 2 DERF HANOVER IF NOT FAVORED (SHOULD BE FAVORED) 25 SEEMS TOO LIKELY, SO I’LL BE SURE NOT TO PLAY THOSE TWO TOGETHER 25 / 136 / 25 / 136 25 / 136 / 136 / 25 RACE 4 1 KWICKY KWANZA will probably be less than 4-1 2 BRICKMAN will be one of the longshot chances 3 DARCEE N I suppose could be favored the way they bet him here, but the line looks right 4 REAL WICKED longest shot in the race probably 5 SURF REPORT drops and will take a beating for Drury / Auciello, correct favorite 6 BET ON ART is the new face, that alone likely means overbet, not sure even 12-1 would be enough for me to try 7 ARAZI will be double digits for sure, which could be enough to consider 8 ER QUINN is the other dropper, 8-1 would be fair, I doubt you’ll get it 9 SPORTSRANGER gets Roy and may attract support, but demand the 12-1 the line suggests, I think he’ll be higher 10 WELL DID longshot prayer as well WAGERING SUGGESTIONS: 8 ER QUINN AT 8-1 OR MORE RACE 5 1 LMC MASS OAK had no excuses as the chalk last week, shouldn’t be favored in here, but who knows, 4-1 is actually probably fair, but I’m not sure you’ll get it 2 LITTLE RED CHEV figures to be big odds coming off those Western Fair miles, last time here faced NW7000L5 and was 12-1, I still expect him to be more than that tonight though 3 SPARK A DREAM drops and is not going to be 8-1, bad ML? 7-2 seems about right 4 ADVENTURE AHEAD can’t be big enough odds in this race to try 5 BATTING STATS got a perfect field to drop and pop last week, finds another soft spot tonight, 5-2 is the suggested ML, you won’t see those odds tonight 6 OCEANVIEW DEB will be long odds, north of the ML suggestion 7 BARNEY MAC is interesting, 9-2 would be fair enough to use, post 7 is relief from 9 and 10 8 ESQUIRE is a tough call, that’s why odds matter, at 12-1 I’m interested, at 8-1 or less, pass 9 STAR PHOTO should be as big as the 2 due to post, or similar at least 10 JUSTASMALLTOWNGIRL won last week at $60, will be overbet bc of that, but usable at 15-1 range still WAGERING SUGGESTIONS 3 SPARK A DREAM AT 4-1 OR MORE 7 BARNEY MAC AT 9-2 OR MORE |