August 30th, 2020
Focus Today is on a challenging Late Pick 5 Sequence at Del Mar.
The Grid: Overview of selections. “A” horses are horses I will be using on all horizontal tickets and key plays for individual races. “B” horses used on horizontal tickets where other legs may be shallow. Horses that can certainly win. “C” horses are meant for deep tickets or spread legs. Horses that could win but may need to have things their own way, or have angles working against them. “X” horses are horses I do not see having a chance today.
My Plan of Attack:
With the 2 in race 7 as my only “lone A” it makes this pretty straightforward for me. Will play multiple tickets, but all but 1 will have the 2 singled there. This is beneficial for a few reasons. First, its my strongest opinion, why not press it. Second, in tough sequences like this, going skinny early can be contrarian to the field. Let’s face, most build tickets with fear in mind and want the ride, causing deeper plays in the first few legs. This method is called “reverse pyramid” skinny early, deep late, and for a couple tickets, that will be the plan. And lastly, because if I swing and miss on the single, I can fire back at what is still a solid pick four sequence with potential strong payout. This is the type of sequence I personally like to fire at, but if you are playing smaller tickets, you could remove the C’s from below or try to use another single within (#12 in leg 2 or #8 in leg 5 my suggestions). If opinions are right, this gives me a chance to hit this sequence multiple times, or if I can dodge “X’s” find at least 1 winner.
Other Tidbits:
Solid racing yesterday, but timing issues continue to be frustrating. In the end, I just don’t know when to trust this new technology in timing at Del Mar as there seems to be more races mistimed than timed correctly. If timing was accurate, early turf fractions were much slower than what we’ve seen throughout the meet causing for some interesting pace set ups and a couple big prices that were tough to find. If you have not checked out the article on the timing issues in the sport, I recommend reading the piece by racingthinktank.com and Pat Cummings.
Lots of chatter about the miracles Peter Miller has worked, specifically with his Breeders Cup bound CZ Rocket. Look, this horse was not a lifetime claimer, this one had talent at a young age and really just struggled as a router for Stall. With that said, lets call it as it is, Peter Miller has done this numerous times before (see Stormy Liberal) and I would be willing to bet it’s not because his oats, hay, and water are better quality than other trainers. In this sport, that’s unfortunately just part of the handicapping process at this point until we see wide spread change. For a horse like CZ Rocket, the horse ran back to back huge figures, and all indications from the DD pools prior to the race, and the Tote going into the race said “expect the same”.
Derby is a week away, doesn’t feel like it. Not nearly the hype as a traditional year and will be interesting to see how many actual enter the gate. I’m usually a homer with my pick, and no big change wight now as I have a future wager on Honor AP and Thousand Words and think Honor AP will be very tough at this distance. Tiz deserves favoritism and if is as good as the prep, this will be awfully fun to watch. Lots of King G buzz this past week and sounds like one that may be overplayed. Looking forward to seeing the whole card soon.
Trainer Stats:
Not pictured- Still 4 regular trainers without wins this meet with Miyadi (22), Lerner (17), Ellis (15), and Palma (15)
Miller Barn is red hot- notoriously a streaky barn.
Jock’s
Winless Jockey’s :
G. Franco (61), J. Velez (55), A Espinoza (22)
Look at the race for the Jockey Title….Things are heating up going into the final week.