Laurel Park Racing Analysis — Sunday, October 21, 2018, by Jeff Byrnes

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Picks also include if races come off turf.
Race 1: CLAIMING $20,000 One Mile (Turf)
Picks: 2-7-3
Off turf: 5-6-10
Meow (#2): Meow drops back into claiming ranks after failed attempt in stakes company. This is the lowest level claimer she’s been in since 2016. Trainer is 23% when away for 45 plus days and 25% shipping in. she has previously been competing in allowance and optional company, should find easier company today. Speed to outside, she will be coming late. 
Talkness Smilemore (#7): Hasn’t raced since June, but trainer is 15% when 90 days away. Went wire to wire in $25,000 optional claimer last out. This horse could be lone speed, she could set moderate fractions and be hard to catch. Speed figures are among highest than other runners here. 3 for 6 record at Laurel Park, including win at one mile distance last out. 
Shifra Magician (#3): Last win in 2016 came in $16,000 claimer at this distance. Been in the top 4 in six out of last seven starts. Drops from $42,000 allowance to $20,000 claimer. Gets Forest Boyce, who wins on grass a lot of times. Will be mid pack early on, and will try to get first run late. 
Race 2: MAIDEN SPECIAL WEIGHT $40,000 One Mile (Turf)
Picks: 5–12-10
Off the turf: 2-14-7
Inle (#5): Inle gets blinkers on for the first time, so expect a more more focused and straight running horse today. Jockey/trainer combination has been good this meet. Comes in off moderate works at Fair Hill. Don’t be surprised if this horse goes to front or sits just off the pace this time.
Kilronan (#12): Showed change in tactics and went to the lead, held gamely to get beat by a half length. His 2nd last out came after facing much tougher competition at Keeneland. With not a lot of speed here, look out for him to go and take them a long way. 
King’s Pawn (#10): In five starts, only one on the board finish and it came here at Laurel Park. Went to the lead and was beaten a length. Comes back to the $40,000 level and should appreciate the field. Could be around late if speed holds. 
Race 3: CLAIMING $16,000 – $14,000 One Mile (Dirt) 
Picks: 4-1-5
Mandel (#4): Comes off dominate score at this level last time out. This horse is a front runner, so expect him to go to the lead. Trainer is 26% in claimer repeats and is 22% in last out wins. Must use on ticket.
Blame the Kids (#1): Won at this level and distance last out. Trainer is 32% in claimer repeats and 26% routing. This horse will be facing tougher, but get the rider most of his success has come from. One mile seems to be the perfect distance and should improve at a nice price.
Menacing (#5): Won Laurel Park debut going away at this level last month. Will rate and stalk, get first jump. Trainer is 30% in claim repeats and 26% in last out wins. Runs to last race, will be tough. 
Race 4: WAIVER MAIDEN CLAIMING $40,000 – $35,000 Six furlongs (Dirt)
Picks: 2-1-3
Speight’s Comet (#2): Ships to Laurel to make career debut. Trainer Linda Rice is 27% maiden claiming and 18% in debut claiming. Jockey/trainer combo very successful. Easy works coming in, should be tough.
You Made It (#1): Makes career debut today. Trainer is 16% in maiden claiming debuts. Good works coming in, post one, should get rail trip and will be coming late. 
Sunday Red (#3): Trainer is 18 in maiden claiming, filly makes debut and has posted solid works coming in. Good break and will be tough down the lane. 
Race 5: ALLOWANCE $42,000 One Mile (Turf)
Picks: 6-9-7
Off the turf: 8-1-11
Beach Diva (#6): Broke maiden impressively last time out. Trainer is 25% with horses 3rd off the layoff. Successful jockey/trainer combination. Their is plenty of speed in the race, a mid pack run and off speed and she can win. 
Soar From Shadows (#9): Broke the maiden in 9th career start last time out and first time at Laurel Park. After competing against tougher company in New York, she comes to Maryland and gets more relief today. Off the pace style should help with outside post. Good works coming in and in good form. 
A Great Time (#7): 1 for 4 record at Laurel Park. This horse returns to two turns for the first time in over a year. Pedigree suggest two turns will not be a problem. Will sit just off the pace, and gets Julian Pimentel aboard. Most of this horses best races have come with Pimentel aboard. 
Race 6: WAIVER MAIDEN CLAIMING $40,000 – $35,000 Six furlongs (dirt)
Picks: 3-5-8
Ellanation (#3): Debited at this level in first start, expect to improve second time out. Trainer is 18% in maiden claiming and one of only few horses here with experience. Solid steady works coming in, must use on ticket. 
Variance (#5): Second beaten a neck in $16,000 claiming race in last start, takes big jump in class, but has the experience over others in here. Trainer is 25% with horses jumping two classes. 
Super Twenty Five (#8): Trainer Linda Rice ships the one in from New York. Expect this one to show speed from the outside. Linda Rice is 27% in maiden claiming races and 25% in sprints. Worthy first to use.
Race 7: ALLOWANCE $42,000 One Mile (Turf)
Picks: 12-6-3
Off the turf: 11-8-4
Subtle Step (#12): Takes a big drop in class in what could be the easiest field she has faced in her career. Trainer is 21% more than 45 days off, and 20% shipping. She has taken on the likes of Toinette and LA Signare. Good jockey/trainer combo, especially on turf, must use on ticket. 
Darcy Mae (#6): Two for five with two seconds at Laurel Park, caught a wet turf course last time and should get much better conditions today. Good work pattern coming in, she has speed, so she will likely go to the front and try to never look back.
Well Blessed (#3): Returns to allowance levels after running in three straight stakes races. Daniel Centeno returns to the saddle, all three of her career wins have come with him riding. Trainer is 26% dirt to turf, and should get firmer ground today. 
Race 8: ALLOWANCE OPTIONAL CLAIMING $35,000 6 Furlongs (Dirt)
Picks: 8-3-2
Mesotherm (#8): 3 for 5 in his career, all on the board finishes, and seems to be getting stronger with every start. Won back to back races by combined 7 3/4 lengths in very good times. Likely shows the way and never looks back.
Resiliency (#3): Competed in open stakes company in the past, but now shows up at Laurel with a new trainer and a fresh start. Trainer is 21% when 90 + days away, and 32% with horses running under him for the first time. Fired a sharp bullet work two weeks ago. Longshot worth playing on ticket. 
High Roller (#2): Making first start in 10 months, this horse was competing in stakes races, taking on the like of El Areeb and Twisted Tom. Now, drops into easier company, trainer is 23% with past beaten favorites and gets big weight break from rest. 
Race 9: ALLOWANCE OPTIONAL CLAIMING $35,000 5 1/2 furlongs (Turf)
Picks: 9-3-6
Off the turf: 12-2-1
Oldies But Goodies (#9): Finished in the superfecta in all seven career starts, including two wins. Won a $42,000 allowance race going this distance last out with a 90 Beyer speed figure. Trainer is 13% with last out winners, and course should be firmer than last race. Horse is must use on your ticket. 
Triple Burner (#3): In for the $35,000 tag after competing against much tougher company before. Ran in graded stakes races and now drops to lowest level of his career. Will need pace, but his class could prove best in here.
Keep Talking (#6): Trainer Tom Proctor is 20% Shipping and this has had success over the Laurel turf course. He won a $45,000 turf sprint allowance race last fall, now drops to near level and gets a new rider in saddle. Can rate off the pace, and will get good trip, worthy long shot to consider. 
Race 10: STARTER OPTIONAL CLAIMING $25,000 5 1/2 furlongs (Turf)
Picks: 7-4-3
Off the turf: 9-5-11
Bells Irish Fancy (#7): Moved up in class last two starts and it hasn’t work out, now drops to class where she scored wire to wire win by open lengths three starts back.Trainer is 15% 46 plus days away. Speed figures among highest and consistent in the field. Must use. 
Star Flare (#4): After unsuccessful two turn races, she returns to 5 1/2 furlong distance where she has a win and a 3rd. With speed to inside, she must save ground and get a good trip to win.  
Miss Bob (#3): Comes in off sharp win at $35,000 claiming level. Trainer is 33% when she drops off a win. Forest Boyce is an outstanding turf rider, good upgrade. Has run well at distance., will show speed and could be around late. 
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