Laurel Park Racing Analysis — Saturday, October 20, 2018 (Maryland Million day), by John Piassek

Race 1: Maryland Million Distaff Starter Handicap, 3yo and up, Fillies and Mares, MD-bred, 7 Furlongs
8- Truly Hot: 
Ran some strong brisnet speed figures two and three back over the Laurel Park main track, earning an 84 and an 83, respectively. Struggled over the Timonium bullring last out, and should be happy to get off of it. Comes in here off a sharp bullet workout.
5- Include Gold: An inexplicably dull race at Parx last out is the only blemish on otherwise sharp recent form. She hasn’t had a workout since that performance, so it’s unclear if she’ll be back to her old self here.
12- No More Excuses: Makes her first start off the claim for Kieron Magee, which is always a dangerous angle. She’s got lots of early speed, but the extreme outside post does her no favors.

Race 2: Maryland Million Starter Handicap, 3yo and up, Fillies and Mares, MD-bred, 1 1/8 Miles (Turf)
2- Include a Check: Her speed figures put her in the upper echelon of this field, and her late pace figures ensure that she’ll be involved late.
1- Participate: Won gate-to-wire last out against similar company. She’s got lots of early speed and an advantageous inside post. Will be tough to catch if allowed to go out uncontested.
10- Capucine: She finally broke through her non-winners of two claiming condition to win at Delaware Park last out. Her grinding closing style doesn’t make her a serious win threat, but she must be respected for the exotics.

Race 3: Maryland Million Distaff, 3yo and up, Fillies and Mares, MD-sired, 7 Furlongs
7- Crabcakes: The darling of Maryland-breds comes in off a huge win at Penn National, where she easily won an allowance race and earned a big brisnet figure of 92. She loves the Laurel track, having never finished worse than second in eight tries. She won this race at 1/5 last year, and you might not get that high a price on her this time around.
1- Item: Finished a well-beaten third behind Crabcakes last out, but earned brisnet figures in the 90s in her two races prior. Should sit a good trip stalking the pace from the inside, and will be a great price if you want to go against Crabcakes.
4- My Magician: Makes her third start off the layoff and finally gets off bullring tracks. This Maryland-bred veteran won two stakes races against Maryland-breds at Laurel last fall, running big figures each time. Definitely merits respect.

Race 4: Maryland Million Ladies, 3yo and up, Fillies and Mares, MD-sired, 1 1/8 Miles (Turf)
4- Love’s Legend: Her second-itis is concerning; she’s finished second or third six times this year, from eight races. However, she’s the only one in the field to steadily run in the low-70s to upper-80s, while also having semi-recent turf form. In a largely paceless affair, she could sneak to the early lead if Horacio Karamanos is aggressive enough.
9- My Sistersledge: She’s already won twice going around two turns on the Laurel grass this year, earning a strong figure of 91 two starts ago. Won this race by a nose last year and has an excellent chance to repeat.
1- Magician’svanity: Tried her luck without success at Saratoga over the summer, now comes back to Maryland. Based on her form, it’s clear that she does not like to win, with just two win in 44 races. However, her figures are good enough to suggest that she’s a strong candidate for exotic spots.

Race 5: Maryland Million Sprint, 3yo and up, MD-sired, 6 Furlongs
2- Lewisfield: He ran a dull race in the DeFrancis Dash after a wide trip. Gets some class relief and a better post draw. He ran a 101 when winning the Not for Love Stakes against similar opponents back in March, and would win this race if he can duplicate that race.
4- No More Talk: He’s won his last two over the Laurel track, running his two highest figures in those races. It looks as if he’s coming into form at the right time.
1- Onemoregreattime: Looks to be the classic speed/fade type, although he did win against Maryland-bred allowance horses three starts back at a generous 19/1.

Race 6: Maryland Million Nursery, 2yo, MD-sired, 6 Furlongs
5- Scrap Copper: He ran a big race last out in the Laurel Futurity, closing strongly over a tiring turf course, only to just fall short. Broke his maiden two starts back with a big figure after battling for the lead the whole way.
3- Sky Magician: Improved sharply second time out, with his figure jumping up to an 82 in a second-place effort. He’s been working sharply since then, with two bullet drills. Definitely capable of running a big race.
10- Hall Pass: Finally broke through with a maiden win him his fifth start last out, with him just holding on in the long mile stretch run. He’ll get a cutback in distance to six furlongs here, which should be right up his alley.

Race 7: Maryland Million Turf Starter Handicap, 3yo and up, MD-sired, 1 1/8 Miles (Turf)
2- No Knock Raid: He’s the only one in the field to run at least an 80 in each of his last three races. Ran a big race last out against similar, when he faded after leading most of the way. Will be a major presence on the early pace.
1- Zen’s Land: He’s been second in each of his last three turf races, which isn’t great, but he still possesses a strong closing kick.
11- Redeemed Gentleman: Ran a career-top when finishing fourth last out, outfinishing No Knock Raid with a good closing rally. Can he keep it up?

Race 8: Maryland Million Starter Handicap, 3yo and up, MD-bred/sired, 7 Furlongs
4- Gamblin: A local legend over at Penn National, he ships to Laurel looking for his fifth win in a row. He’s got excellent early speed and a great post position. He’ll be tough to beat.
11- Visual Effect: He’s been steadily improving in each of his last few races and gets blinkers off. Will be heard from late.
3- Sebray: Makes his first start off a long layoff, but he was awfully impressive before going on the shelf. If he can recover that early-season form, he will be difficult.

Race 9: Maryland Million Lassie, 2yo, Fillies, MD-sired, 6 Furlongs
9- Miss Philly Dilly: Last out, she broke slowly, was rushed up, and subsequently tired. In spite of that, she still earned a great figure of 75, which is a slight decline from the 76 she earned on debut. Either race would likely be good enough to win here.
2- My Star Potential: Improved sharply second time out at Parx after running a very game race against allowance company. She had a good workout last Saturday, proving that she’s recovered well from that effort and should not “bounce”.
1- Better Yet: Crushed a very weak maiden claiming field last out, winning by sixteen lengths and earning a figure of 79. I don’t think she’s as good as that race suggested, but there does appear to be potential there.

Race 10: Maryland Million Turf, 3yo and up, MD-sired, 1 Mile (Turf)
10- No Bull Addiction: Has won two out of his last three races, and hasn’t earned a figure lower than 88 over that stretch. Appears to be in career-best form at age 6, and cannot be discounted.
5- Daniel Le Deux: Lost to No Bull Addiction by just a neck last out, after making a strong, wide rally. He’s run four times over the Laurel turf this year, and has not run a bad race over the track.
1- Willy d’Rocket: Looked to be up against it facing open starter handicap opponents at Monmouth Park over the summer. He won the starter handicap edition of this race last year, and his figures suggest that he’s now ready to tango with the big boys.

Race 11: Maryland Million Classic, 3yo and up, MD-sired, 1 1/8 Miles
9- Admiral Blue: He’s had a largely disappointing year against claiming company in New York. Comes back to his home state, where he hasn’t raced much, but should find the competition easier.
8- Goodluckjohnathan: He struggled to keep a straight path going down the long stretch last out, but still earned a career-top figure of 87, and looks to be rounding into career-best form.
7- Saratoga Bob: Has come in the top two five out of seven times at Laurel, and had to deal with rough trips in each of his last two races. The big question mark: can he get 1 1/8 miles? He’s never gone around two turns on dirt.

Race 12: Maiden Claiming $40,000, 3yo and up, Fillies and Mares, 5 1/2 Furlongs (Turf)
7- Oddseverinurfavor: Almost wired the field at this level last out, but was run down in the last jump. She improved all the way up to an 81 from a 60 in that race. Will certainly be on the lead again, and has the ability to sustain it.
2- Baltimore Babe: Ran a big race first off the long layoff back in June, finishing third with a figure of 72. Has been showing steady improvement and should get a good stalking trip.
6- Buddha Kai: Closed strongly in her most recent turf race to finish third at 118/1, earning a lifetime best figure. At the very least, a candidate for a bomb underneath.

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