Race 1:
MdClm $10k Fillies 3 Years Old 6F
1st: #7 Determined Mission, it was a decent effort in the debut at this condition earning a field-best 32 Beyer. Went 6 wide and still managed third after a poor start. The winner of that one came back to win his next.
2nd: #4 Gaby Vee, couldn’t blame you for putting this one on top, Rudy Rodriguez shipping down and dropping from the $30k level and adding blinkers. Just about all the things you look for when handicapping Md10s, but the debut effort was so poor I simply had to go with Determined Mission on top. This one will improve bigly however.
3rd: #8 Weekends for Work, consistent, if uninspiring. Should set the pace in this one but stamina is a major concern.
Race 2: Starter Allowance $16k 3 Year Olds 6 & ½F
1st: #7 Two Putt, 1 for 2 since Claudio Gonzalez took over the training with a very narrow miss last out at this level earning an 82 Beyer. In the two-back effort he beat Team Tim by 2 lengths who came back to win a loaded Clm$25k field that included the 8 Gold Man.
2nd: #8 Gold Man, really sharp at the moment, prefers to get the lead and shortening up in distance should help his chances here.
3rd: #6 Will Munnings, I’m playing against this 9-5 ML favorite as without the last effort he’d be a more neutral 3 or 4 to 1. The last he closed into an absolutely ridiculous pace up at Pen where the leader went 21 and 3, and 44 and 1, and 56 and 3 allowing the closer to take over. Don’t think he’ll get that pace again.
Race 3: MdClm $40k 3 Year Olds 6F
1st: #7 Bucked Tooth, Trombetta sends this one out a second time after he earned a 59 in his debut at the $50k level. Adding a bit of distance is a question mark given he “weakened late” in the last. Imagine conditioning much improved in second attempt. There are a lot of different ways to look at this race.
2nd: #9 Padrino’s Heart, looks like the bet at first glance. Has two highest Beyers in the field at 66, including at the MdSpWt level, retains Vargas, and is going back to one turn which looks like his preference. I don’t love the fact that the Beyer remained the same in his second attempt as a three year old and am pricing in improvement in the 7.
3rd: #3 My Lord, there are a lot of different horses you could plug in here, I’m going with this one who is 15-1ML. Nice improvement from 39 to 45 Beyer in first out this year, should improve further. Was gaining lengths in the stretch of the last. Unfamilair with the conditioner, but she saddled 7 winners in 35 attempts in 2018.
4, 5, & 6 all decent plays and you can’t ignore the 2, first time out for Graham Motion that gets Trevor McCarthy to ride. Good opportunity to box a bunch if your bankroll can handle it, and hope for some solid prices.
Race 4: OC$35k 6F
1st: #9 Stoney Bennet, Linda Rice always a threat when shipping down to Laurel, this one has two 90s Beyers in his last 3, including a win in open allowance company in New York. Last out he faded after setting blistering fractions in State Bred Stakes company and weakened late going 1 mile, should appreciate the distance relief here.
2nd: #4 Workin On a Dream, I absolutely love the last out effort, his first as a four year and maybe most importantly his first with blinkers. I will be using him on top in my tickets as well, I question the Beyer (82) if he can really keep up with the 9. Retains top pilot McCarthy again. Last out earned a 96 DRF Speed Rating.
3rd: #7 First Mondays, if this one is ready he might run them off their feet, definitely has the back class having come in third in the G3 Smarty Jones as a three old last summer. Hasn’t been out since September and only one published work, I’m inclined to think he needs some conditioning.
Race 5: The H.E. Johnson Memorial Stakes $100k 1 & 1/8thM
1st: #1 Twisted Tom, gotta like this spot for this one from the Bill Mott barn. Has thrown mid to high 90s Beyers in his last two in NY state-bred stakes while closing strongly despite narrowly missing. 2 for 2 locally including wins in the Private Terms and Federico Tesio Stakes last year. Gets the added distance here and the friendly rail draw.
2nd: #4 Unbridled Juan, my pick in the John B Campbell last month, he made the lead on the turn but was vanquished by hard charging Bonus Points (#3 in this race), who got to close into a pretty blistering pace (1:10.60 6F). Don’t think you’ll see the same pace scenario and those closer to the lead will
3rd: #7 General Downs, the hard-working gelding was a victim of the vicious speed in the John B Campbell but still made a run in the stretch coming within 2 lengths of the leaders before being passed on the outside by Bonus Points. Again, think you’ll see a more honest pace and less closing from way back.
Can’t really ignore 2 John Jones, 3 Bonus Points, or 6 Cordmaker. That’s 6 selections for a superfecta that may pay something decent.
Race 6: Starter Handicap $16k 1 & ¼M
Third of a three part Starter Handicap series: the first, 8.5F on 1-19 was won by Dattt Melody #9 today; the second, 9F on 2-18 won by Whirlin Curlin #10 today.
1st: #1 Bobby G, second time out for the Corrales barn after he claimed him for lowly sum of $5k in 2-2. He won that day by 13 lengths and followed that up with a win at the OC$25k level by 5 lengths and looked like he could run all day. Which is good because he’ll need to do just that today going 10F. Definitely like that he’s not a dead closer nor one that needs the lead.
2nd: #9 Dattt Melody, as noted above, the winner of the first of this series after falling 10 lengths behind early he just got up by a nose after going 5 wide. Last out at 9F he made up 4 lengths in the stretch but never quite got there. Should come running down the lane.
3rd: #10 Whirlin Curlin, the winner of the second of the series, he is definitely in form, winner of 3 of the last 5 tries and 5 wins locally. Will be a factor.
Race 7: The Beyond the Wire Stakes $100k Fillies 3 Year Olds 1M
1st: #7 Las Setas, her win in the Wide Country Stakes was visually impressive, and she tallied a field-best 76 Beyer in the 5 and a half length win. She may face some more competition for the lead, by she set sturdy fractions in that one too and still cleared them out.
2nd: #5 Afleet Destiny, grade 2 placed in the Demoisel back in December where she got Irad Ortiz to ride and went off at 26-1. Second time out at three, could move forward.
3rd: #2 It Justhitthe Wire, first against winners for Kiaran McClaughlin, she got Luis Saez to ride down at the maiden-breaking win and attracts McCarthy here.
Race 8: The Private Terms Stakes $100k 3 Year Olds 1 & 1/16thM
1st: #3 Alwaysmining, the local prodigal son, nominated to the Triple Crown, and three time stakes winner returns for a fourth in a row, and the first time going two turns. He gets a good inside post and should make the lead easily enough. Came home in 24 seconds flat last time out, don’t think another 1/16th will be much of an issue.
2nd: #6 Red Gum, will also be forwardly placed, has prospered since coming into the Kelly Rubley barn breaking is maiden and following it up with a win at the OC$50k level. Has won going two turns.
3rd: #4 Joevia, clearly has talent, first time out as 3 year old he threw an 83 Beyer in the Winkfield Stakes losing to Haikal by just a neck, who followed up that performance by winning the G3 Gotham Stakes and maybe securing a spot in the Kentucky Derby. Significant improvement off that race would make him a winner here, have to wonder about the stamina now going two turns for the first time.
Race 9: The Conniver Stakes $75k F&M 7F
1st: #6 Anna’s Bandit, just can’t shake how good that last race was where she took off and equaled the fastest time at the distance in the last 3 years winning by 5. Robb gave her a bit of a breather but she’s been drilling well.
2nd: #2 Velocita Brillante, do not underestimate the Claudio Gonzalez magic. This one is 2 for 2 since being claimed for $25k by Gonzalez at the restricted and then open allowance levels. Step up in class here, think she’s ready.
3rd: #10 S W Briar Rose, since coming to Laurel she’s won twice and come in second most recently earning back-to-back 80s Beyers. Definitely wants some pace to close into, and there is some speed to her inside.
Race 10: The Note for Love Stakes $75k 6F
1st: #5 Laki, really nice run last time out stalking Uncontested who ran an absolutely brilliant race in the General George. Only finishing 2 lengths behind there is quite an achievement, he should be primed after that one. 4 straight mid to high 90s Beyers.
2nd: #3 Rockinn on Bye, was 5th in the General George only a length and a half behind Laki coming from way way back. Will probably be more forwardly placed in this smaller field of only 7.
3rd: #2 Lewisfield, 5 for 9 locally and has sort of become Laki’s rival. I keep coming back to the race last summer when he was just 5 lengths behind Limousine Liberal and Whitmore—some of the best sprinters on earth. Hasn’t been out since December 8th, think he needs a race.
Race 11: MdClm $10k Fillies 3 Years Old and Upward 5 & ½F
1st: #4 Buster’s Brother, 3-5 ML fav, just narrowly missed going slightly longer last time out earning best last-out Beyer in the field of 50. It was his career best effort as well, retains services of Carol Cedeno.
2nd: #7 Watchmeneighneigh, last out on the mud was a step back from what was an improving racehorse.
3rd: #5 Conquistador Fuego, last out effort was decent earning a 41 Beyer. 0 for 19 locally and 0 for 36 lifetime. Don’t expect much.