Blog

This is the eighth edition of the Kentucky Oaks Futures Index found on the Daily Gallop. My opinions will be offered on which horses I think are major competitors to hit the board on Oaks Day. 

BUY

1. Gamine: (Into Mischief) Trained by Bob Baffert. 1^st Acorn.

Gamine set the track record in the Longines Grade 1 Acorn running the fastest time in the history of the race. She demolished a field of 7 by 18 ¾ lengths. After her Acorn win her sample came back positive for lidocaine.  No decision has been made on disqualifying her from race. Baffert believes it was innocent exposure and not intentional administration. Having already proven from the beginning she is a star and I believe her medication positive was not responsible for her incredible win in the Acorn. I am also not worried about her pedigree getting the distance in the Oaks. Baffert said they were pointing to the Grade 1 Test at Saratoga on Aug 8.  The one to beat by a mile.

2. Swiss Sky Diver: (Daredevil) Trained by Kenny McPeek 2^nd the Blue Grass, 1^st in the Fantasy Stakes, 1^st Gulfstream Park Oaks, 3^rd Rachel Alexander.

Swiss Sky Diver, the leading points earner for the Kentucky Oaks turned in a valiant effort in settling for second in the Blue Grass. She outpaced all her other rivals and finished 4 ¾ lengths ahead of the 3^rd place finisher. After the race, her trainer seemed more inclined to pursue the Oaks in the immediate aftermath of the race. Their next target that was discussed is the G1 Alabama or consider waiting for the Oaks. I think she put in a huge effort and would love for them to keep her safe and rested ready for the Oaks.

3. Speech: (Freud) Trained by Michael McCarthy 1^st in the Ashland, 2^nd in Santa Ysabel, 2^nd Santa Anita Oaks.

We now have the answer as to why Gamine had such a hard time beating Speech by a head. Speech is better than we thought. Speech set the track record while collecting her 1^st Grade 1 in Ashland. Following four straight runner-ups—including a pair of graded stakes at Santa Anita. She stalked a moderate pace set by Venetian Harbor. Once Speech got to the quarter pole she surged past Venetian Harbor and won convincingly. Having already raced against Donna Veloce, Swiss Skydiver and Gamine. Speech showed up every time in her races against the best Oaks contenders out there. Very dangerous threat to this group. 

4. Shedaresthedevil: (Daredevil) Trained by Brad Cox. 1^st Indiana Oaks, 3^rd in the Fantasy Stakes, 1^st in the Honeybee.

After her 3^rd place in the Fantasy she has gone on to finish 1^st in her last two races easily. She now has 90 Oaks points and has proven to be a very solid filly. Her trainer believes she is only going to get better with more distance. Enough points to secure her spot on Oaks Day but there is talk about getting another race in before then. She shows up and puts her best effort in every race. I am looking forward to seeing her on Oaks Day and seeing her put in a top performance.

5.  Venetian Harbor: (Munnings) Trained by Richard Baltas.  2^nd in the Ashland,2^nd in Fantasy Stakes, 1^st in the Las Virgenes.

Is the distance too far for Venetian Harbor? I was expecting her to kick away easily to win the Ashland then Speech kicked it into gear and ran by her. Venetian Harbor also tired against a game Swiss Skydiver in the Fantasy Stakes. Swiss Skydiver had just another gear turning home just like Speech. I still think she belongs in the top tier of this group

Sell:

1. Tonalist Shape (Tonalist) Trained by Saffie Joseph Jr. 1^st Hollywood Wildcat, 7^th Gulfstream Park Oaks, 1^st in the Forward Gal, 1^st in the Davona Dale

Training well since her first win going around two turns rebounding from sustaining her first loss in the Gulfstream Park Oaks. She was pointed to the Ashland but her connections decided to point her for the Coaching Club July 18 at Saratoga. Tonalist, in my opinion, has yet to prove her effectiveness in a two- turn race, at this stage she has the necessary points to secure her spot on Oaks Day. Need to see more from her before I move her to Buy.

2. Perfect Alibi: (Sky Mesa) Trained by Mark Casse. 5^th Acorn Stakes, 4^th Breeders’ Cup Juvenile Fillies, 2^nd Alcibiades Stakes, 1^st Spinaway Stakes.

Perfect Alibi’s disappointing 5^th place finish in the Acorn has her doubtful for a run in the Oaks. Even if she does, I would question her fitness. I think she is a better horse than we saw in the Acorn they just needed a race to put her in and that one wasn’t ideal. Depending on how the field shapes up. I will keep her to Sell.

3. Donna Veloce: (Uncle Mo) Trained by Simon Callaghan. 1^st in the San Isabel, 2^nd in the Starlet Stakes, 2^nd in the BC Juvenile Fillies.

Her 2020 comeback win looks a whole lot better in retospect after the runner-up from it, Speech, to finish a neck behind Gamine and the track record in the Ashland. Her trainer said she had a minor setback but didn’t specify what it was. The delay of the Oaks until September could prove beneficial for her. Unless she gets back on the work tab she is in serious jeopardy to miss the race.

4. Casual: (Curlin) Trained by Steve Asmussen. 6^th Acorn Stakes

She was exposed a bit in the G1 Acorn, finishing up the track behind Gamine. Though she does deserve a mulligan for the effort and already has a strong race over the Churchill main track under her belt. I think the best thing for her is to focus on sprints.

5. Altaf (Medaglia D’Oro) Trained by Chad Brown.

She was a super impressive maiden winner on May 23 at Churchill Downs, single-handedly bucking what appeared to be an inside bias early with a wide sweeping move to a 5 ½ length victory. She still needs to develop against this impressive group.