Kentucky Downs Saturday August 31, 2019
Mike McEntire
Twitter: @Gorgonzola44
Mike has been an avid horse handicapper since he discovered the Daily Racing Form in his Econometrics and Forecasting Data class at Erskine College (SC) in 1992. He has worked as a field auditor, employee benefits consultant, martini bar owner, and is currently a business insurance broker in Columbia, SC. Since his 2009 thru-hike of the Appalachian Trail, Mike has been an avid couch potato and horizontal horse handicapper. He loves full fields, full tanks of gas, full bellies, and full hearts. His fiancée is an equine pharmacist and she supports his love of horses and handicapping by driving eight hours to various race tracks and reminding him not to hedge, therefore, he hits 3/4s, 4/5s and 5/6s on the regular.
I am traveling to Kentucky for the Labor Day weekend to visit Kentucky Downs on Saturday and Ellis Park on Sunday and Monday. This week’s analysis will highlight value plays only. Sometimes they will be my top choice, other times they will be value underneath.
If you are in Franklin or Henderson, hit me up on Twitter and I’ll buy you a drink.
Fade me.
Race One: 1:15 post – Allowance 10000s 1 Mile 70 Yards Turf 3YO&Up F&M
10-11-4-9
#10 Royal Alexandra looks super tough and she seems to be improving, but the horse I love is #11 Tweety Show. She is shipping in from Belterra and she is certainly on the improve. She appears to be the only horse in the Ron Isbell Jr. stable and jockey Julie Burke comes along for the ride. It takes a lot to ship a horse in for one race, escpecially when it is the only horse in your stable and this one has run credibly since returning to the track on 5/19/19. Royal Alexandra may be too much, but this one fits.
Race Two: 1:51 post – MSW 130K 1 1/2 Mile Turf 3YO&Up
7-11-1-13
#7 Hellorhighwater has yet to put it together after seven starts at five different tracks. He had every right to win his last race at Saratoga on 8/16/19, but finished a close third. He is a 275K Keeneland auction purchase for Silverton Hill, and they don’t usually miss on talent evaluation. Jimmy Graham climbs back aboard after being off for a few races and his last two races have him in the mix today. #11 Pintxos will certainly show some early pace and could even steal this one on the front end, but Hellorhighwater should get the pace he needs to close into the Polaroid today.
Race Three: 2:24 post – OC 62500n2x 6 1/2 F Turf 3YO&Up
7-11-1-5
#1 Holiday Stone and #7 Marzo are going to be incredibly tough in this spot and are worthy of respect, but this is a an interesting race full of horses making some changes. Two horses with a ton of value based on their morning line really interest me. #5 Funny Duck wants slop and he wants the turf, but the connections were forced to try a dirt campaign after he freaked over the Churchill Downs slop in the 5/5/18 Pat Day Mile. George Arnold tried to get him on the turf on 6/22/19 where he washed off the sod and had every right to win that OC, but he was jammed and checked. He loafed around the oval in his last outing at Ellis Park, but I am willing to draw a line through that effort. #11 Mick’s Star has been running above his head for most of his career and trainer Tom Amoss gets him in today in a much more realistic spot. His 6/2/19 Churchill Downs effort is likely good enough today and he beat next-out winner Faraway Kitten that day. Florent Geroux crawls into the irons for the first time and that is a certain upgrade to every pilot he has had in his career.
Race Four: 2:57 post – Allowance 145000n1x 1 Mile 70 Yards Turf 3YO&Up
12-11-2-3
#11 He’s Stylish could easily walk the dog on the front end as there is very little early speed on paper, but I am most interested in #12 He’s Cheeky. This Larry Rivelli trainee popped some huge numbers as a 3YO before taking his entire 4YO campaign off. He has been rounding into form at Arlington Park and could easily capture the talent he showed as a younger horse. He has been cashing checks of late and gets Brian Hernandez Jr., who could have ridden others today and the pace set-up is a plus.
Race Five: 3:33 post – Allowance 145000n1x 1 Mile 70 Yards Turf 3YO&Up F&M
12-14-8-2
I want #12 Delta’s Kingdom pure and simple. Billy Mott brings this one back after a brief respite away from the track where she barely finished behind Varenka and Princess Carolina in her last two races. Beschizza stays aboard after getting caught up in traffic on 7/13/19 at Arlington Park. She is improving and working towards a new top figure.
Race Six: 4:05 post – MSW 130K 6 1/2 F Turf 2YO Fillies
11-16-13-3
Juvenile races can result in some crazy results, but there is a FTS in this one that looks to be much the best. In fact, she won’t have to be all that to win today as the experienced runners don’t look like much. #11 A J Rock is entered for Rockingham Ranch and Peter Miller of a recent June 150K auction hammer and four solid works. The form says she is running without Lasix, but the change sheet has her taking the Bute. It’s ging to take a lot to beat her, but watch the tote. Someone else could have some major steam in a baby race.
Race Seven: 4:38 post – One Dreamer 250K 1 Mile 70 Yards Turf 3YO&Up F&M
9-3-4-10
If I was forced to single a horse all day, I would choose #9 Limari. Don’t get me wrong, she could get beat, but it’s going to take a huge effort by another to get it done. She has posted four banging works since her dull third place finish on 7/13/19 at Indiana Grand, but the eye-catcher in her form is her third place finish to Mom’s On Strike on 6/18/19 at Churchill Downs as the favorite in the Mint Julep.
Race Eight: 5:11 post – Tourist Mile 750K 1 Mile Turf 3YO&Up
1-4-8-9
Look, #2 Next Shares can win this race, but he’ll have to do it based on back class. This 6YO has whiffed in his last two races and is coming in off of a four month lay-off. You can have him. I am against. #1 Snapper Sinclair is in career-best form for Steve Asmussen and he has two wins on the sod early in his career. This entry is no mistake by Asmussen, and getting Leparoux only adds to the confidence. I’m tossing Next Shares from hitting the board looking for balloons.
Race Nine: 5:47 post – Juvenile Fillies 500K 1 Mile Turf 2YO Fillies
2-12-6-7
Another baby race, so get your price. Several make a ton of sense in this $500K Stakes, but juveniles always seem to yield a price. This fillies’ race seems to be more evenly-matched than the colts in the last, so I am going to take a little bit of a swing. #2 Well Spent had a great debut on 5/23/19 at Churchill Downs where she cruised past Mom’s Pass under simple urging. Catalano shipped her up to Presque Isle where she didn’t really enjoy the synthetic surface, yet she persevered to a solid second place finish behind Cambria as the post-time favorite. She didn’t like the synthetic. Her last two works at Churchill Downs since that loss are totally on point and the 8/23/19 was a cracker. I just hope it wasn’t too fast. Robby Albarado may only have one mount today, but it looks like he has the right one.
Race Ten: 6:22 post – Juvenile Stakes 500K 1 Mile Turf 2YO
12-5-1-11
There are a few eye-popping horses entered into this stake, but I landed on Mark Casse’s #12 Peace Achieved. His last race was an extremely solid win at Ellis Park on 7/27/19 where he won at this distance easily in hand. Miguel Mena stays up and the last two workouts only signal more fitness. It took him a couple of races to wake up, but if this one moves even a tiny step forward, they rest are running for second.