2019 Kentucky Derby Futures Index
Week 9
Joseph Wulffe
Twitter: @Whtnbourbonguy
[This Thursday marks the final edition of the Kentucky Derby Futures Index as the 145th edition of the Run for the Roses on the First Saturday in May draws ever closer. This article was originally intended to be released yesterday following a final analysis of the post position draw; however, some reshuffling of the Top 5 on the BUY List was required after the unexpected (but completely understandable given the nature of the injury) scratch of Omaha Beach was announced. The BUY List has been further reduced to just the five runners that appear to have the best possible chances of either winning the Derby or at the very least finishing in the money, all the while offering value to the individuals that back them in this race. A chart listing some of the pertinent criteria that was used in helping to evaluate these horses will once again be included at the end of this article. There is the potential for a significant amount of rain to fall over the greater Louisville area in between this morning and Saturday evening. As such there is the possibility that the track conditions for the Derby could turn up quite wet and thus horses that have prior experience over wet tracks or pedigrees suggesting that they can handle a sloppy surface were given a significant boost in this final Futures Index.
With regards to the various parts of that chart, first and foremost the pace for this year’s Derby is expected to be moderately slow (relatively speaking), possibly on par with the pace from the 2015 Derby. As such those horses possessing a Brisnet Running Style of either E or E/P that will allow them to be forwardly positioned stand to benefit the most from a moderate initial pace. Meanwhile those horses possessing a P or S running style appear to be at a disadvantage in this race. Next, when looking at the past performances of the last 19 Derby Winners dating back to 2000, two trends stood out. 15 of those 19 winners earned a 102 or higher Bris Speed Rating (BSR) in one of their three year old prep races and also earned a 95 or higher Brisnet Late Pace Figure in their nine furlong prep race. Next with regards to the fractional times for the final nine furlong prep race, there are two important stats to consider. Since 1990, 26 of the 29 Kentucky Derby Winners ran either their final furlong in 13.0 seconds or less or ran their final three furlongs in 38.0 seconds or less. Furthermore, 22 of those 29 winners did both. Additionally, since 1992, 25 of the 27 Derby Winners earned or better career best Beyer Speed Figures. Finally, with regards to the OptixPlot trends, there are several tendencies to consider. Horses depicted as circles or squares in Quadrant I and horses depicted as squares in Quadrant III are the most viable win contenders for the Derby. Horses depicted as circles in Quadrants II and IV have never won the Derby and circles found in Quadrant IV have never finished in the top four in the Derby. Horses depicted as squares in Quadrant IV are generally best used underneath as they have the highest second place finish percentage out of any type of runner in any quadrant. Finally, Late Pace in the Derby is key and as a result, horses depicted as squares generally have better finishing ability and are twice as likely when compared to circles to finish in the money. So without further ado, let’s dive on in and see which of these three year olds cracked the Top 5 on this week’s Futures Index BUY List.]
BUY
1 (2). Tacitus: (Tapit-First Defence; Bill Mott; Juddmonte Farms Inc; 4-3-0-0; 1st in the Tampa Bay Derby (G2) and 1st in the Wood Memorial Stakes (G2); 150 Kentucky Derby points)
With the scratch of Omaha Beach, this son of Tapit inherits the top position on this final offering of the Futures Index. Thus far no son of Tapit has ever won the Kentucky Derby (his progeny have run remarkably well in the Belmont Stakes though); it has been quite a long time since the winner of the Wood Memorial has even hit the board in the Derby (2003 was the last year this happened when Empire Maker finished second); finally, trainer Bill Mott is still in search of that elusive first victory in the Run for the Roses. Could this be the year then that this trifecta finally comes to fruition? I certainly believe so. For those individuals that subscribe to the Kerry Thomas school of thought on herding dynamics, Tacitus fits the bill of a legitimate Kentucky Derby contender. He possesses a nice mixture of Group Herd Dynamic (GHD) efficiency and Individual Herd Dynamic (IHD) power. This combination in turn allows him to hold a strong path in a crowd, target forward well, and hold his own in a close-space fight (three crucial criteria in determining which Derby runners posses strong herd dynamics). Additionally, Tacitus holds sway over many of his rivals in this field in several other categories.
Not only does Tacitus possess the career co-highest BSR in the field (a 103 shared with Tax, which also happens to be the highest speed figure earned by a runner in any prep race this year) but Tacitus is also the only contender in the entire field to earn both a triple digit middle pace figure and a triple digit late pace figure for his effort in the Wood Memorial. This feat suggests that he can sustain a fast pace for a long time which translates well into him making a long sustained drive from the final turn and through the entire stretch run in the Derby. Furthermore, this colt has shown that he can handle large fields and adversity quite well. Tacitus squared off against ten other rivals in both the Tampa Bay Derby and the Wood Memorial and bested them all both time; he also survived a rather rough and tumble start to the Wood Memorial and still was very game down the stretch. Even though Brisnet gave him a P2 running style designation, Tacitus has shown that his running abilities are much more versatile than a late-running pace stalker and that should work to his benefit next Saturday. Although this colt did not quite meet either of the time standards for his final nine furlong prep effort and his OptixPlot shape suggests he might be better off being used underneath, this colt’s two most recent efforts have shown how much untapped potential and talent there is that exists within him and as such he warrants an excellent chance at winning the Derby.
Furthermore, Tacitus drew quite well when landing post position 8 in the Derby. Since 1930, that post has produced eight Derby winners and accounted for an overall record of 86-8-5-4 which translates to a 9.3% win rate and a 19.8% in the money finish rate. The vast majority of the early speed in this race is drawn to his inside which should allow jockey Jose Ortiz to sit a quality trip, stalking early on, before moving up into contention in the final turn and then driving past tiring rivals down the stretch. The weather forecast should also significantly boost Tacitus’ chances of running well as not only as he won over an off-track before but his pedigree also suggests that he will relish running over a possibly muddy track on Saturday. All in all, Tacitus appears to be a burgeoning contender to take the Run for the Roses this Saturday and if he can remain near his new Morning Line odds of 8-1, then he’ll offer excellent value to his supporters.
2 (3). Game Winner: (Candy Ride-A.P. Indy; Bob Baffert; Gary and Mary West; 6-4-2-0; 2nd in the Rebel Stakes (G2) and 2nd in the Santa Anita Derby (G1); 85 (overall) Kentucky Derby points)
The scratch of Omaha Beach appears to have greatly increased the chances that one of the Baffert triumvirate win the Derby on Saturday (which for detractors of the trainer is likely not welcome news). Amongst the three Baffert entrants, Improbable, Game Winner, and Roadster, I believe that this son of Candy Ride has the potential to offer the most upside in this race. Looking back at his performance in the Santa Anita Derby in which he was narrowly defeated by stablemate Roadster, ground loss and pace need to be considered when making a true assessment of that effort. Not only was Game Winner on the lead contesting the pace throughout the initial stages of the race but he was also doing so whilst running three to four wide which led to considerable ground loss at the end of the race. Moreover, when Roadster drew level with Game Winner in that race, Game Winner was not content to allow his stablemate to blow past him and displayed tremendous grit in battling back to finish second by just half a length. Now Game Winner is unlikely to be on the lead or even close to the pace (at least initially) so the scenario of him getting run down on the lead by a rival is not very probable. However, perhaps Baffert had some tremendous foresight and instructed Joel Rosario to give Game Winner that wide of a trip in preparation for a potential outside post draw. While the overall impression of the Santa Anita Derby appears to be that of a slowly run race with major regressions occurring for each of its runners that simply is not the case. The surface at Santa Anita that day was quite deep and as a result very slow and thus had a major impact on the resulting speed figures earned and final times for each of the finishers. When viewing Game Winner’s overall body of work, raw results (speed figures and times) can only tell part of the story and instead development and trajectory need to be considered. As such, one might view his Santa Anita Derby effort then as an important step forward in his overall development and if this colt can continue to move forward and mature, then he warrants attention as a solid contender in this race.
That is not to say though that Game Winner is not without flaws as the weapons that he has at his disposal are not all that impressive as he does not have raw speed and his late-closing kick is fairly weak. Additionally, there is the possibility that although Game Winner will be breaking from Post 15 at the moment, if another rival (Haikal perhaps) were to scratch, Game Winner would draw the unenviable post position 14 at the extreme outside of the primary starting gate. This post has been known to cause a lot of trouble for its inhabitants as the runners in the auxiliary gate to its outside have been known to drift over and slam into horses exiting gate 14. However, there still is some upside to Game Winner. First and foremost, he is trained by Bob Baffert and the name alone speaks for itself. Second, this colt is a grinder and will keep coming after his rivals using his heart, his guts and his ability to sustain a drive for a long way. Third, if Rosario can finally give him a decent trip in the Derby and avoid running him wide throughout the entire trip, Game Winner’s figures are solid enough that he will likely be in contention late as the field turns for home. Finally, Baffert appears to gotten Game Winner ready to roll back at Santa Anita and out of the limelight at Churchill Downs as this colt recently turned in a very solid handily worked seven furlong effort in 1:27.00. Game Winner simply may not be fast enough to beat all his rivals in this field next Saturday though he will most definitely give another good account of himself throughout the race and should be considered a major contender to hit the board underneath.
3 (NR). Improbable: (City Zip-A.P. Indy; Bob Baffert; WinStar Farm LLC, China Horse Club International Ltd, Starlight Racing; 5-3-2-0; 2nd in the Rebel Stakes (G2) and 2nd in the Arkansas Derby (G1); 65 (overall) Kentucky Derby points)
This son of City Zip returns to the Futures Index following a brief hiatus. To begin let’s discuss his rather bizarre performance in the Arkansas Derby. The experiment of Baffert adding blinkers for the first time clearly failed as Improbable threw a fit going into his gate and was actually on the verge of getting scratched if his histrionics continued. Even after breaking from the gates, he was met with more adversity as he found himself uncharacteristically further back in the race than he had ever raced before as all the speed drawn to his outside gunned it to the front. Although he handled the sloppy conditions that day fairly well, Omaha Beach simply would not let Improbable pass him and thus he had to settle for second in that effort. Now for the Derby, Baffert wisely removes the blinkers which should allow Improbable to be a bit more alert of his surroundings when entering the starting gates on Saturday and hopefully will prevent another meltdown from occurring. In addition, unlike in the Arkansas Derby where all of the early speed was drawn to his outside, this time as Improbable will be breaking from post position 5, he is surrounded on both sides by runners possessing initial speed. Thus that experience in the Arkansas Derby of being shuffled back and having to race from much further off of the pace than previous efforts could come into play once again on Saturday and should provide a valuable learning experience for this young colt.
On a whole, Improbable meets nearly every criteria set forth in the aforementioned chart and his most recent TimeForm speed rating should allow him to be competitive amongst this entire field. His much scrutinized pedigree may not be quite as bad as it looks for handling ten furlongs as not only is City Zip an incredibly versatile sire but the bottom side of Improbable’s pedigree is loaded with stamina influences as well. Kerry Thomas’ opinion on this colt is a bit mixed as while Improbable does possess both a solid GHD and IHD, he wonders which lessons and behaviors that were imparted from that most recent effort will carry over into Saturday. If Improbable is able to capitalize upon the more beneficial of these experiences then he certainly could be dangerous in this race. However, if the more negative aspects of that effort are what stick in his mind, then he could offer up a repeat performance of his near meltdown and simply take himself completely out of the Derby before the race is even run. But it does appear, based upon some of his most recent works over the surface at Churchill Downs, that Improbable has seemingly put the worst parts of his Arkansas Derby performance behind him as he has looked absolutely incredible working out in the mornings. Finally, with the likelihood of a muddy or sloppy track looming over the field for this year’s Derby that should present absolutely no issues for Improbable as not only does he possess an excellent pedigree for handling such conditions but he was also more than up to the task the last time out racing over the sloppy surface at Oaklawn Park. Improbable’s Morning Line odds took a bit of a hit after the scratch of Omaha Beach and his 5-1 odds are not nearly as enticing as before; however, Improbable still needs to be respected in this field as he certainly has the potential of winning this race or at the very least hitting the board on Saturday.
4 (NR). Tax: (Arch-Giant’s Causeway; Danny Gargan; R.A. Hill Stable, Reeves Thoroughbred Racing, et al; 5-2-2-1; 1st in the Withers Stakes (G3) and 2nd in the Wood Memorial (G2); 52 (overall) Kentucky Derby points)
If there’s one term that should be used to describe this son of Arch, it’s gritty or maybe it’s gutsy or even tenacious. Whatever the case may be, I really like Tax. The Danny Gargan trainee really has done nothing wrong in each and every one of his three nine furlong efforts since he was claimed from the barn of Ben Colebrook. Tax is the only runner in the entire field to have earned three triple digit BSRs and his pedigree suggests that a mile and quarter is easily obtainable especially given the amount of stamina present on the top and bottom. This colt has excellent high cruising speed and figures to be forwardly placed stalking the initial leader/s once again in the Derby. The natural progression for Tax after winning the Withers back in February would have been to return to race in the Gotham Stakes (G3) in March and then finish up the prep season at Aqueduct with a bout in the Wood Memorial. Instead Gargan elected to give his young charge a nearly two month breather and it nearly paid off as Tax was just unable to withstand the late run from rival Tacitus and had to settle for second in that race. However, that race likely proved to be a valuable learning experience for him as he was tested early on and forced to survive some severe bumping and knocking about (some of which he may have initiated himself) and that involvement could potentially give him an advantage over many of his other rivals in this field that have yet to experience that scenario.
Although Tax’s final times for his Wood Memorial effort were not quite fast enough to fall within the accepted values for potential Derby winners, he does check off every other box on the pertinent stats chart and as such needs to be considered a legitimate contender in this race. Gargan has done quite well in the past with runners making their second start following a layoff and Tax’s final four furlong work over the track at Belmont Park in preparation for the Derby was quite possibly one of his best in a long time. The inside post draw (Post #2) is a bit problematic not in the least considering all the other early speed that is drawn around him. There is the distinct possibility that if he does not break alertly from the gates he could very well find himself shuffled back into the second or third flight of pace-stalkers heading into the first turn, a very unenviable position for a colt that prefers to be forwardly placed. If this scenario does indeed play out, Tax is going to need to harness every bit of his GHD tendencies to remain in a competitive position for as long as possible before switching over to IHD mode and unleashing a drive to get out of the pack and break for the lead. How Tax handles an off track is also going to be key as he has yet to race over any surface that was not rated as fast and dry and his pedigree does introduce some questions as to how he’ll respond to potentially muddy conditions. I do have confidence in this colt and his connections and the 28.7% in the money finishes for post position 2 since 1930 (the second highest in the money rate for any post) certainly inspires confidence. I am not entirely sure that this talented colt has enough ability to win this race but he certainly stands out as a runner that must be included in all exotic wagers in this race as he will likely go off at a very big price and will definitely reward those who back him provided he hits the board.
5 (NR). War of Will: (War Front-Sadler’s Wells; Mark Casse; Gary Barber; 8-3-1-1; 1st in the Lecomte Stakes (G3), and 1st in the Risen Star Stakes (G2); 60 Kentucky Derby points)
After noting the inclusion of the “other son of War Front” in this Futures Index, some people may be left scratching their heads or even questioning my sanity. Bear with me please. War of Will is the quintessential massive risk, major reward type of runner in this field. The amount of conditions stacked up against him going into Saturday are quite numerous. First and foremost is the brutal draw along the rail. Although the rail position does boast a 9.2 win percentage since 1930 (the fourth highest win percentage of all gate positions in the entire field) it is an absolutely unenviable position to be in for a talented runner that has good early speed yet is flanked by a bevy of other runners with similar running styles that desire to be forwardly placed as well. As such there exists the almost certainty that the field will draw in towards the rail exiting the gates (in preparation for heading into the first turn) and one of two scenarios could unfold: either horses will force War of Will literally up along the rail and completely stymie any forward momentum he may have had at the time or War of Will may be shuffled further back than would be considered desirable and forced to run inside of horses and behind traffic (a situation that has already occurred before and in which War of Will has demonstrated he does not care for). However, with news breaking this morning that Haikal has a foot abscess and is uncertain to run in the Derby, this would be nothing short of a miracle for Team War of Will as Haikal’s scratch would mean that the entire field would then be moved over one gate to the outside (up to Haikal’s post) and thus the gate nearest the rail would be left empty.
There is another factor that needs to be considered when assessing War of Will’s chances in this race and that is the fact that even though he last ran six weeks ago in the Louisiana Derby (G2), his last “actual race” came 11 weeks ago back in the Risen Star. It would be incredibly hard for a runner to hit the board let alone win the Kentucky Derby following that long of a layoff but then again stranger things have happened. War of Will appears to have recovered quite well though from the strange leg injury that he appeared to suffer almost immediately after exiting the starting gates in the Louisiana Derby and if his morning works over the surfaces at both Keeneland and Churchill Downs have not only been professional but have looked quite sharp as well. The final factor that needs to be addressed regarding War of Will are his slow speed figures. His fastest Bris Speed Ratings (BSRs) and TimeForm speed ratings from his Lecomte and Risen Star efforts pale in comparison to nearly the entire field and as such War of Will would need to take a massive step forward in order to be labeled as any sort of major contender in this race.
Kerry Thomas’ views on War of Will while favorable are not without their caveats as well. I fully expect as does Thomas that jockey Tyler Gaffalione will try and ask War of Will for speed early on (a risky proposition) in order to ensure a front-running position going into the first turn. Although War of Will has never gone gate to wire before in his career, he appears to have the necessary traits to pull off such an accomplishment. War of Will’s dynamics tend to slant towards the IHD side and while aggressively-minded and possessing the ability to overcome obstacles, if War of Will finds himself bottled up behind traffic, he may not be able to run to the best of his abilities. One final aspect of War of Will to note is his prowess over a sloppy track. Many may forget that it was over a sloppy surface at Churchill Downs last November going eight and a half furlongs on his first try on dirt, that War of Will broke his maiden. In fact War of Will is the only runner in the entire field to possess a win routing over an off track at Churchill Downs. This experience could end up being crucial in possibly conveying a slight advantage to War of Will over his rivals that have yet to be tested racing in such conditions. Many if not all well known handicappers have basically written off War of Will’s chances in this race and all in all that is a pretty fair assessment for this son of War Front; however, while I do recognize that the odds certainly appear to be stacked against him, I’m willing to consider giving War of Will the slightest of chances to at the very least make his presence known in this race, give an admirable account of himself, and secure a minor award at massive odds.
