2020 Kentucky Derby Futures Index
Week 9
Joseph Wulffe
Twitter: @Whtnbourbonguy
[Welcome to the ninth edition of the second season of the Kentucky Derby Futures Index which is proudly presented by The Daily Gallop! For those of you that are new to this feature or perhaps need a bit of refreshing, please refer back to the first edition of this feature that debuted on Friday, November 8th on the site for some background information on why this article was created, how it functions, what the determining criteria are and what the overall goal for this piece is going forward. As we have now moved into the month of March and the 2020 Kentucky Derby prep season has really begun to take off, I believe that it bears mentioning that from henceforth any runner now that either distinguishes himself or puts forth a truly abysmal effort is hereby eligible to warrant inclusion on the BUY, ON THE VERGE, or SELL Lists. The previous deadline of February 17th that had been established and governed many of the lists featured in prior editions of this article obviously is no longer in effect but I believe that the implementation of the rules set forth initially and further supplemented by that deadline allowed for the Futures Index to be a fair representation of a moderate sampling of horses that are amongst the best and worst contenders on this year’s Kentucky Derby trail. With that being said, it’s almost time to turn our attention to the revealing of this week’s lists; though, first a few notable events occurred over the weekend that need to be addressed.
First and foremost, it was reported on Sunday that the Brad Cox trainee and winner of the 1st Division of the Grade 2 Risen Star Stakes at Fair Grounds in mid February, Mr. Monomoy, has been removed from the Kentucky Derby trail for the time being. Although, he had essentially already qualified for the Derby with the 52 points he has accrued thus far, Cox elected to postpone any future racing plans after discovering some swelling in one of the colt’s ankles which without confirmation via x-ray could indicate any number of issues that would have likely derailed this talented colt’s ability to contend in his potential next prep race, the Grade 2 Blue Grass Stakes at Keeneland on April 4th. This is incredibly unfortunate news for the connections of Mr. Monomoy and as he is unlikely to recover quickly enough in time to make the Derby, I am declaring him ineligible to be featured on any of the three lists going forward (unless of course news regarding his condition and prognosis change).
The other major event that occurred over the weekend was the running of the eight and a half furlong Grade 2 Fountain of Youth Stakes at Gulfstream Park which was won in dominating fashion by Patrick Biancone’s Ete Indien. Initially a field of 12 had been drawn to contest this race, with many of the main contenders marooned in the far outside post positions. However, the scratch of one longshot and then the late scratch of a key contender, Chance It (more on him later), greatly benefited Ete Indien and his jockey Florent Geroux. As Ete Indien was still stuck in the furthest outside gate with a number of potential rivals possessing good early speed drawn to his inside and a very short run up to the first turn, Geroux was left with essentially one option: to send from the get go and attempt to get all the way over to the rail and take command of the race entering the first turn. The fact that Chance It (who had been drawn to Ete Indien’s outside scratched) and that several of those rivals that projected to be on the lead from the start did not break as alertly as Ete Indien greatly aided this colt’s path to success in this race. Ete Indien broke like a shot and a Geroux quickly steered him over to the rail whereupon he commenced setting a rather robust pace whilst facing some pressure from a few rivals. He was able to save ground while along the backstretch, gradually began widening his lead in the final turn and after being prompted at the quarter pole willingly responded and drew off authoritatively down the stretch to finish eight and a half lengths clear of his nearest rivals. While he did earn a 120 TimeForm speed rating for his efforts (the highest speed rating earned by a three year old in a prep race this year), he was drifting a bit during his efforts in the final turn and along the homestretch which suggests he is either still a bit immature and/or that the distance of the race was beginning to tax his abilities. A closer examination of his pedigree reveals that ideally he should be at home on grass as both his sire and damsire were accomplished graded stakes turf routers but it also indicates that perhaps nine furlongs and maybe even shorter distances might be the ceiling for this young colt. Ete Indien’s victory on Saturday certainly flatters Tiz the Law’s triumph over him in the Grade 3 Holy Bull Stakes at the beginning of February and should set up a much anticipated showdown between these two Derby front-runners in the Grade 1 Florida Derby later this month at Gulfstream Park.
Finally, it should be mentioned that this Saturday, March 7th, is the second of three Super Saturdays on this year’s Kentucky Derby Trail as there are three crucial prep races being held with a number of major contenders (several of whom are featured on the BUY and ON THE VERGE Lists) racing. First there is the Grade 3 Gotham Stakes, a one turn mile affair that will be run at Aqueduct. Then there is the Grade 2 Tampa Bay Derby run at a mile and a sixteenth which will feature a matchup of the highly touted Sole Volante, winner of the Grade 3 Sam F. Davis Stakes back in February at Tampa Bay Downs, and Saffie Joseph Jr’s Chance It (who landed here at being scratched out of the Fountain of Youth last weekend). Finally, there is the Grade 2 San Felipe Stakes to be run at eight and a half furlongs at Santa Anita and this race will likely feature two of Bob Baffert’s best three year olds in Authentic and Thousand Words and may mark the 2020 debut of the much hyped Honor A.P. The 2019 Breeders’ Cup Juvenile champion Storm the Court is also likely to be entered into this race. All three of these prep races will award points on the 50-20-10-5 scale to the top four finishers and thus any horse that wins any of these prep races can essentially be considered to have punched his ticket into the starting gates at Churchill Downs on May 2nd. With all this being said, it’s now time to reveal the BUY and SELL Lists for this week’s edition of the Kentucky Derby Futures Index.]
BUY
1. (Last Week: 1) Tiz the Law (Constitution-Tiznow; Barclay Tagg; Sackatoga Stable; 4-3-0-1; 1st in the Champagne Stakes (G1), 3rd in the Kentucky Jockey Club Stakes (G2), and 1st in Holy Bull Stakes (G3); 22 Kentucky Derby Points)
2. (Last Week: 2) Enforceable (Tapit-Dixie Union; Mark Casse; John C. Oxley; 8-2-2-2; 3rd in the Claiborne Breeders’ Futurity (G1), 4th in the Kentucky Jockey Club Stakes (G2),1st in the Lecomte Stakes (G3), and 2nd in the 1st Division of the Risen Star Stakes (G2); 33 Kentucky Derby Points)
3. (Last Week: 3) Silver Prospector (Declaration of War-Tapit; Steve Asmussen; Ed and Susie Orr; 8-3-0-2; 1st in Kentucky Jockey Club Stakes (G2), 4th in the Smarty Jones Stakes (Listed), and 1st in the Southwest Stakes (G3); 21 Kentucky Derby Points)
4. (Last Week: Not Ranked) Ete Indien (Summer Front-Mizzen Mast; Patrick Biancone; Linda Shanahan, Sanford Bacon, Dream With Me Stable, Horse France America, D P Racing LLC, and Patrick L Biancone Racing LLC; 5-3-1-0; 2nd in the Holy Bull Stakes (G3) and 1st in the Fountain of Youth Stakes (G2); 54 Kentucky Derby Points)
5. (Last Week: 4) Thousand Words (Pioneerof the Nile-Pomeroy; Bob Baffert; Albaugh Family Stables LLC and Spendthrift Farm LLC; 3-3-0-0; 1st in the Los Alamitos Futurity (G2) and 1st in the Robert B. Lewis Stakes (G3); 20 Kentucky Derby Points)
ON THE VERGE:
Authentic (Into Mischief-Mr. Greeley; Bob Baffert; SF Racing LLC, Starlight Racing, Madaket Stables LLC, Frederick Hertrich III, John D Fielding, and Golconda Stables; 2-2-0-0, 1st in the Sham Stakes (G3); 10 Kentucky Derby Points)
Modernist (Uncle Mo-Bernardini; Bill Mott; Pam and Martin Wygod; 4-2-0-1; 1st in the 2nd Division of the Risen Star Stakes (G2); 50 Kentucky Derby Points)
Silver State (Hard Spun-Empire Maker; Steve Asmussen; Winchell Thoroughbreds LLC and Willis Horton Racing LLC; 4-1-2-1; 2nd in the Lecomte Stakes (G3) and 3rd in the 1st Division of the Risen Star Stakes (G2); 14 Kentucky Derby Points)
SELL
* Indicates Non Kentucky Derby Prep Race (i.e. awards no points)
1. (Last Week: 1) Scabbard (More Than Ready-Gone West; Eddie Kenneally; Joseph Sutton; 6-1-2-0; 2nd in the Saratoga Special* (G2), 2nd in the Iroquois Stakes (G3), 4th in the Breeders’ Cup Juvenile (G1), 5th in the Lecomte Stakes (G3) and 6th in the 1st Division of the Risen Star Stakes (G2); 6 Kentucky Derby Points)
2. (Last Week: 2) Shoplifted (Into Mischief-Yes It’s True; Steve Asmussen; Grandview Equine, Cheyenne Stables, LNJ Foxwoods; 7-2-1-1; 2nd in Hopeful Stakes* (G1), 5th in the American Pharoah Stakes (G1), 7th in the Breeders’ Cup Juvenile (G1), 1st in Remington Springboard Mile Stakes (Listed), 3rd in the Smarty Jones Stakes (Listed), and 4th in the Southwest Stakes (G3); 13 Kentucky Derby Points)
3. (Last Week: Not Ranked) Dennis’ Moment (Tiznow-Elusive Quality; Dale Romans; Albaugh Family Stables; 5-2-0-0; 1st in the Iroquois Stakes (G3), 8th in the Breeders’ Cup Juvenile (G1), and 10th in the Fountain of Youth Stakes (G2); 10 Kentucky Derby Points)
4. (Last Week: 3) Anneau d’Or (Medaglia d’Oro-Tapit; Blaine Wright; Peter Redekop B.C. Ltd; 4-1-2-0; 2nd in the Breeders’ Cup Juvenile (G1), 2nd in the Lost Alamitos Futurity (G2), and 9th in the 2nd Division of the Risen Star Stakes (G2); 12 Kentucky Derby Points)
5. (Last Week: 4) Max Player (Honor Code-Not For Love; Linda Rice; George E. Hall; 3-2-1-0; 1st in the Withers Stakes (G3); 10 Kentucky Derby Points)