Keeneland Saturday October 19, 2019
Mike McEntire
Twitter: @Gorgonzola44
Mike has been an avid horse handicapper since he discovered the Daily Racing Form in his Econometrics and Forecasting Data class at Erskine College (SC) in 1992. He has worked as a field auditor, employee benefits consultant, martini bar owner, and is currently a business insurance broker in Columbia, SC. Since his 2009 thru-hike of the Appalachian Trail, Mike has been an avid couch potato and horizontal horse handicapper. He loves crisp fall weather, Honeycrisp apples, Cookie Crisp cereal, and smuggled Canadian Coffee Crisp treats. His fiancée is an equine pharmacist and she supports his love of horses and handicapping by driving eight hours to various race tracks and reminding him not to hedge, therefore, he hits 3/4s, 4/5s and 5/6s on the regular.
Fade me.
Race One: 1:05 post –Claiming 50000 6 F 3YO&Up F&M
3-1-5-2
A short field of evenly matched fillies and mares have signed on for the opening claiming race on today’s card. The ML odds maker agrees as all six of these runners are within 2.5 pari-mutuel points in the form. Tom Amoss’ #5 Sterling Miss has been made the very lukewarm ML favorite coming in off of a dull sixth place finish at Churchill Downs on 9/29/19. She was the favorite in that OC race and really had no excuses, but Amoss hits at 28% second time off of the layoff. It looks as though she has run the best races of this field, but she is a play-against for me based on her current form. Philip Sims’ #3 Nonhelma has had the most success, though against weaker competition, of any of the ladies in this field. She is sporting a two-race win streak shipping in from Thistledown. She was forced to check up in her last race yet still got up in time. She might be a little better than her running lines suggest, but I am concerned that bug girl Crystal Conning jumps off of her for #1 Miss O’Hara. This George Arnold mare is returning to the main track after nine races on the sod, so she presents her own series of wagering questions.I honestly couldn’t eliminate any of these six horses, so spreading in the first leg of the early Pick Five may be in order, but I am going to lean a little on the lightly raced Nonhelma on top. She has a little more early speed than the others in the race and has shown that she can win if she is forced to face a little adversity.
Race Two: 1:39 post – Claiming 7500 6 1/2 F 3YO&Up
1-12-9-8
Regardless of the track, low-level claiming races are normally a huge puzzle, and this $7500 open claimer is no exception. #1 Fridaynitestar has been made the well-deserved 4/1 ML favorite and I am going to use him as the measuring stick against all the other runners today. Fridaynitestar ships in from Canterbury for trainer Nevada Litfin. Litfin claimed him away from McLean Robertson back on 8/19/19 and has arguably improved the horse over the past two starts. Even though it’s a low-level claiming race, I like the connections shipping in for a Keeneland race. Is it possible jockey Robby Albarado sweeps the early Daily Double after winning only one race this entire meet? Speaking of McLean Robertson, he has #8 True West entered for the lowest tag we have seen in his running lines. True West hasn’t been much in his last three starts, but his late 2018 form, especially the 10/20/18 win over this track, suggest that he may be good enough to beat this field. I have some concerns about the workout lines, however, as it looks like Robertson has kept True West in training during this four-month break away from the races. Has he been having some difficulty with the horse or is he trying to steal a Keenland win? He is also moving to a sprint, something he hasn’t done since 6/14/18. #9 Giant Boo Boo has run two clunkers since being claimed away from Jeremiah Englehart at Saratoga on 8/17/19. Most of the Englehart running lines are good enough to defeat this crew, but the Quartarolo races definitely aren’t. He has the talent to win this race, buthe is definitely headed in the wrong direction. #12 Bajan Cash is easily the most consistent runner in today’s field, and he has been quite popular at the claiming box as well. Trainer Aaron Shorter just claimed Bajan Cash in a 9/13/19 Churchill Downs race for today’s claiming price and Shorter wins at 14% first after the claim. This honest horse has been facing mostly better competition than today’s field, but he hasn’t gotten his picture taken since the end of 2018 on a much lesser circuit. If the Belterra Park invader, #14 Chuckmate, draws into the field of off the AEs, I will likely use him on top as well, but I am always a little leery of 9YOs racing at a quality track, especially Keeneland.
Race Three: 2:12 post – OC 100000n2x 6 F 3YO Fillies
5-2-8-3
#3 Peruvian Appeal wasn’t made the ML favorite in this compact field of fillies, but she may be the post-time favorite based on the connections. This Brad Cox filly running with jockey Mike Smith aboard is sure to take her fair share of pari-mutuel support coming in off of her 9/27/19 Churchill Downs win at the same conditions. She is graded stakes-placed and has won her fair share of races, but she looks a notch below two others in this field and I am going to avoid her. #2 Take Charge Angel is the most likely winner coming in off of her lackluster fifth place finish in the Dogwood Stakes at Churchill Downs on 9/21/19. Trainer Ben Colebrook threw her to the wolves in that return to the races off of a three-month lay-off where she was met with a resounding thumping by world-beater Covfefe. She should improve in her second start off the bench and she has handled most of the company she has faced outside of her stakes races. She’s a good filly, but, perhaps, not great. #5 Ready to Runaway is a lifetime 7/7 ITMfor trainer McLean Robertson and she has easily handled minor stakes company since being claimed on 6/22/19. I like Robertson cutting her back to six panels today as her pedigree suggests she should do her best running while at a sprint. I’ll be thrilled to get the ML odds on her. We also can’t ignore Wesley Ward’s #8 Mae Never No. Sure, she is shipping in from Belterra Park out of a couple of small allowance races where she got out-kicked twice, but her back running lines suggest she has some talent. I wonder if there is a lack of grit coming down the lane, but she has really one run one clunker in her nine career starts. It should also be noted that this will be the eighth different track she has raced in her ten starts. You can’t toss her.
Race Four: 2:45 post – MSW $71K 1 3/16 Mile 3YO&Up
10-3-1-7
All eyes will be on 9/5 ML favorite #3 Compliant after his 9/15/19 second place finish at Belmont Park. No other horse in this field has run a turf effort close to good enough to beat Compliant’s last race, so, on paper, he looks like an odds-on post time cinch. He has every right to win this turf route, but I am going to play against him for a couple of reasons. First, he didn’t debut until late July of his 3YO racing season. Second, he debuted at Monmouth with Brown’s second string of runners when he could have just as easily made a Saratoga appearance if Klaravich Stables and Brown thought much of this colt. Hecertainly could be a problem colt that Brown is finally getting good, but I am going to play against his low odds, curious history, and running style today. I like the fact #1 Better Tapit has appeared in only turf routes throughout his brief career, but I’m just not sure he’ll improve enough off of his fifty-day racing lay-off and his running style is very similar to Compliant. In fact, this race is full of a bunch of horses that don’t really want anything to do with the front end. Where is the pace going to come from? I’ll take my chances with Cristophe Clement’s #10 Shore Magic. He debuted on 9/18/19 where he sat about two lengths off the lead for most of that turf route before fading just a bit, but still holding on for second. Clement is much better with his horses in their second race as he wins at 19% in their second start. This son of Medaglio d’Oro should be much better in his second start and jockey Julien Leparoux might be able to control the race alone on the front end.If he can get just a bit of breather during this 9.5 panel route, he should be able to fight off the late chargers and steal the win in wire-to-wire fashion.
Race Five: 3:18 post – MSW $71K 6 F 2YO
10-3-11-6
This MSW for baby boys attracted an overflow field of fourteen runners, six of them first time starters. I normally like to handicap a juvenile race with several unknown shooters by identifying the best FTS and the best known commodity in the race. The connections thought enough of #10 Elusive d’Oro to start him in a minor stakes race on 8/24/19 before breaking his maiden. He continued his string of second place finishes in that race and now returns to Steve Asmussen’s barn today for another attempt at graduation. It should also be noted that he lost to a very good Scabbard (Noose) on 6/28/19. I expect a solid run today. #3 Maximiliano lost to a very good Gouverneur Morris in his 9/2/19 debut at Saratoga where he took some backing at the windows for trainer Wesley Ward. Even though Maximiliano experienced some trouble in his debut, he never really threatened Gouverneur Morris that day losing by nine lengths. It should be noted that Gouverneur Morris returned to the track earlier this Keeneland meet to take second place in the Breeders’ Futurity. Maximiliano is likely more talented than he showed in his only start. The only unraced horse that interests me is Wayne Catalano’s #11 Numidian. Catalano wins at 15% with his FTS and this colt has a string of morning workouts, including a few from the gate, that catch my eye. It will be interesting to see if he can get the jump on Elusive d’Oro from the far outside, but this colt has the look of a well-intentioned horse.
Race Six: 3:51 post – Claiming 50000n2L 7 F 3YO&Up
6-3-10-2
ML favorite #10 Montmarte ran five races in 2018 that are likely good enough to beat this field, but that was then… this is now. Though he is the lone 4YO in this field and may have a bit of a physical edge, his last two races haven’t been much. I can give him a pass for his 1/27/19 race on the turf, a surface he clearly did not like, but his 8/16/19 return to the races after a seven month lay-off was also pretty non-descript. He could have been a little rank in his return as he ran wide near the lead, but he never made the lead. I’m not swallowing this favorite. #3 Hidden Ruler returned to his form of early 2019 in his last race on 9/14/19 at Churchill Downs. He’s dropping a bit in class today after that Churchill effort, but it should be noted that the public didn’t support this Dallas Stewart runner that day when he ran huge at over 40/1. He has strung a few good races together earlier in his career, but I wonder which Hidden Ruler will show up today. #6 Smile Bryan was holding his own in a string of $50K Allowance races before falling off form in his last race on 8/28/19 at Saratoga. Trainer Graham Motion has decided to give Bryan a frown by gelding him since his last race, but this may very well be the equipment change this son of Goldencents needs. Smile Bryan has yet to win a race against winners but tightening him up with the geld should improve him.
Race Seven: 4:24 post – MSW $71K 6 F 2YO
7-10-3-11
This race is the exact conditions as today’s fifth race, but this rendition of 2YO maiden colts has eleven first time starters in the overfill field of fourteen entries. Steve Asmussen has two of the three experienced runners in #7 Gold Street and #8 Wayne O, and Ricardo Santana Jr. rode both colts in their last race. Santana elected to stay in the irons of Gold Street, who ran a credible second place on 9/20/19 at Churchill Downs. Though he didn’t get a huge amount of pari-mutuel support for that second-place finish, it should be noted that the winner of that race has since returned to the track as a next-out winner. I don’t know that we can totally dismiss the other known runner #3 Hansens Mischief, but he has faded down the stretch in both of his career races and, of the experienced runners, I prefer Gold Street. With eleven first time starters entered in this race, the tote board and Daily Double will pays should shed some light on the live runners. I expect Brad Cox’s #10 Mr. Monomoy to take a lot of money as he has the looks of a well-intentioned horse ready to win at first asking. His last eight morning workouts have all been stellar and he is a son of Palace Malice whose babies have won at a gaudy 17% at first asking. Cox wins at 19% with his FTS and Mike Smith gets the mount for his debut. It will take a strong debut effort to win from the ten hole, but this colt looks like he has the talent to do so. Trainer Philip Sims doesn’t win as often with his FTS hitting at 8%, but #11 Bird in the Hat has several reasons to support. His dam has seven winners from eight starters and the 10/2/19 workout from the gate here at Keeneland just screams talent. The outside post hurts his chances, but he’s worth a look.
Race Eight: 4:57 post – Allowance 77000n3x 1 1/16 Mile Turf 3YO&Up F&M
6-9-2-12
I found this allowance race to be the most difficult race to handicap on today’s card as I could honestly make a case for every one of the fourteen horses. #12 Kallio is the 5/2 ML favorite, but it won’t surprise me to see any number of eight horses with post time odds within seven points of her. I also think the favorite of this race will likely go off closer to 7/2 than 2/1. Kallio could certainly win this race as she has been entered in a few stakes races, runs very consistently, and sports a solid workout on 10/11/19. This 4YO has arguably faced the toughest competition and is normally within a few lengths at the wire. She could win today, but why take the chalk when any of these can win? #2 Jehozacat ran a very solid second place here at Keeneland during the spring meet on 4/19/19 and has appeared in three stakes races since. Her last race at Parx on 9/2/19 was a little bit of a clunker, but she gets preferred jockey Declan Cannon back in the irons today and her recent works are tight. #9 Oh So Terrible has been bet like she is overmatched in her last three races, all of them stakes races including the GI Beverly D. Her last four workouts since her third-place finish at Kentucky Downs on 8/31/19 indicate that she is getting better and Miguel Mena seems to have chosen to stay aboard. #8 Boxwood may be the only early speed in this race, and she could have a chance to walk the dog under Corey Lanerie. I do have some concerns that her best races seem to come when it washes off the turf as her sloppy track performances are stellar, but an uncontested lead would go a long way today. #6 Cascanueces ran her eyeballs out at over 50/1 in the One Dreamer at Kentucky Downs on 8/31/19 only to regress a little in her next start. She was blocked in the upper stretch and made up a lot of ground in that race. If she can get a cleaner trip today, she will have every chance get her picture taken today.
Race Nine: 5:30 post – Raven Run GII $250K 7 F 3YO Fillies
2-9-1-10
The scratch of #6 Restless Rider might leave this to Chad Brown and #1 Royal Charlotte. She has won five of her six career races over five different tracks, including Keeneland. Her only loss was to Covfefe in the Test at Saratoga o/n 8/3/19, but she rebounded nicely just four weeks later with a win in the GII Prioress over the same track. Brown has worked her solidly since her last race, but I have some concerns that Javier Castellano decided to skip the day at Keeneland giving the mount to Tyler Gaffalione. Apparently, Castellano thinks Fifty Five has a better chance to win at Belmont than Royal Charlotte here at Keeneland. I am completely against the other Chad Brown runner #3 Indian Pride. Castellano smoked a Saratoga MSW field on 8/28/19 aboard her, but I just can’t play a short-priced horse facing winners for the first time in a GII stakes. If she wins, she shreds all of my tickets. #9 Horologist ripped off four straight wins before taking third in the GI Cotillion on 9/21/19 at Parx. New trainer Richard Baltas turns her back to sprinting after her recent success routing, which I find curious, but her 10/11/19 Keeneland workout is tight. We really can’t ignore Delmar shipper #8 First Star, but she has a similar feel to Indian Pride. She has beaten winners, but nothing comparable to this field as none of her foes have returned to the track a winner. #2 Bell’s the One ran a very credible second place to Covfefe in the Dogwood Stakes at Churchill Downs on 9/21/19 as she bested the remainder of the field by a little over two lengths. Corey Lanerie stays aboard, she has a solid workout here at Keeneland, and she is in the second start of this form cycle. I will say that I am not thrilled with her post position as horses with her running style prefer the outside, but she is on the improve and I will take my chances. Do not ignore #10 Needs Supervision. She is 30/1 on the ML, but we will be lucky to get half of that. She was on the Kentucky Oaks trail until she lost to Serengeti Empress in the GII Rachel Alexandra on 2/16/19. Trainer Jeremiah O’Dwyer gave her seven months off and she returned to take a narrow loss in a minor stakes at Laurel. She hasn’t done much wrong in her career and any improvement off of her last race make her dangerous at a price. Feargal Lynch even flies in to ride her as his only mount on the day.
Race Ten: 6:03 post – Allowance 73000n1x 5 1/2 F Turf 3YO&Up
10-3-5-4
A ton of early speed has signed on to this allowance turf sprint including Chad Brown’s ML favorite #5 Sayyaaf. It took four close MSW races to finally graduate, then he dueled winners for the first time only to falter down the stretch. Brown chose to work him seven times during his two months away from the races, and it appears that those works might have tightened him nicely. The only problem is that several others in this race are going to duel for the lead today. #4 Fooch is certainly going to press the pace out of the gate, #3 Vice Versa almost has no choice but to fire to the front from his post position, and #7 Declined probably needs to gun as well. All of this speed could easily set this race up for Brendan Walsh’s #10 Uncapped. Walsh returned Uncapped to the track after a three-and-a-half-month break in a GIII at Kentucky Downs on 9/12/19. He was totally dismissed by the public only to run third at 85/1 and the second-place horse from the race has returned to the track to win next-out. His three workouts since that race have all been solid and he should improve in the second start of this race cycle.