Keeneland Racing Analysis — Wednesday, October 17, 2018, by Hunter Ulwelling

Race 1: 1st #10: Concord Coupe takes a bit of a class drop, but Indiana Grand is significantly easier to win at compared to Keeneland, but on paper this appears to be the filly to beat.  Solid connections, best Beyer number in the race.

2nd #2: Pintotage is also on a class drop and I believe she will work this to her advantage.  A $2,000 purchase at the Keeneland November sale, I am taking a chance on this filly hoping she will adjust on the surface change.

3rd #1: Mine Mine Mine appears to had needed an out, and she is fresh.  The class drop is definitely necessary, and a jockey change, could work in this filly’s favor.

Race 2: 1st #5: What What What likes to win and is popular in the claiming box.  26 starts and six wins is not too bad. Bridgmohan is winless, and has an advantage to the Keeneland surface, two starts, one win, one second.

2nd #7: Radiantrithym is fairly consistent when it comes to hitting the board, and it is impressive to see a horse come from Belterra to Churchill and still run well, being Belterra is much easier than Churchill.  She was a decent $8,000 purchase, now at earnings of over $108,000. The only thing I do not agree with is 40 starts for a four-year old seems extreme.

3rd #4 Krissy’s Manicure has a start at Keeneland and a third place finish.  She tends to go up and down on performances and her Beyer numbers are all over the board.  Taking a chance with this one hoping she will run third.

 

Race 3: 1st #12: Lake Nakuru has run no worse than second place and Victoria Oliver did not let me down last week, so I am hoping this week could be a success as well.  Cannot go wrong with Jose Ortiz who opted for this horse over Fake Solution.

2nd #3 War Film is by an awesome sire, Declaration of War has started out hot.  I am not sure how a Steve Asmussen horse is going off at 12-1 but decent work outs, and I have a good feeling about this $75,000 purchase.  Out of a Dynaformer mare, War Film’s bloodlines are all turf.

3rd #9 Fake Solution comes from Kentucky Downs and has one race.  Kentucky Downs is no easy track to win at, and maybe with another race as he gains experience he can hit the board and eventually win.  Leparoux has the mount.

Race 4: 1st #4 Soaring Now (Minnesota represent!) comes from Canterbury Park off of a win.  The problem is, it was only for $4,000 but this appears to be a fairly weak field.  Lanerie and Heitzmann team up. Already has a win on this track.

2nd #3 Miss Shawhan is fairly consistent when it comes to running first or second.  On a class drop, but again is a Belterra shipper, so I see this horse being able to run second but I have my doubts about securing the win.

3rd #1 Katie the Cutie comes off with a win, and has hit the board 21 of out 35 starts.  Not too bad, but yet another Belterra shipper.

Race 5: 1st #9 Langdarma is by Candy Ride who is an excellent sire.  Ran 5th last out but still got an 84 Beyer, beat by Line Judge, who has come back to win again.  

2nd #6 Rich Daddy just ran in a grade 3 three races back, the last two races have not been great, he was also beat by Line Judge.  Hopefully can rebound with Ortiz in the irons.

3rd #5 Shareholder Value certainly has value.  He is a $190,000 purchase and is accumulating earnings back.  He has been claimed twice in the last two starts, runs solid Beyer numbers, and blinkers on.

Race 6: 1st #4 Linburgh’s Kitten has Jose Ortiz aboard and Mike Maker as the trainer.  Comes off with a win at Kentucky Downs, and that is not to be taken lightly.  Sprinting on the turf is his specialty.

2nd #6 Belgian is a nice Candy Ride horse who comes off of a nice second place finish at Kentucky Downs and an 87 Beyer number, and Maker also trains.  I can see Maker running 1st and 2nd in the best race of the card.

3rd #2 Sharm El Sheikh has a couple of bad races to toss out, but besides that is a decent horse, and I feel he will hit the board, recent Beyer numbers are respectable.

Race 7: 1st #2 Thunderous Gem I am taking a shot at, at odds of 8-1.  She hasn’t done anything wrong, and the other horses may have raced in tougher spots, but the trainer switch concerns me a little bit.  I hope she doesn’t let me down.

2nd #4 Syllable also has not done much wrong.  She is fresh, and is in a better spot compared to last out.  Tiz Breathtaking beat her last out in a stakes race and has come back to won another stakes race at Woodbine.  Casse/Ortiz, can’t really top it.

3rd #7 Fightress is trained by Norm Casse with Leparoux aboard.  Running her in a grade 3 is a little out of this horses league, and she needs to improve to hit this board here.

Race 8: 1st #2 Blue Lute looks to go back to back with a very very nice win from Kentucky Downs, she is trained by Mike Maker and has certainly been a nice claim for the connections.

2nd #9 Discovered looks good, wondering what’s up with the trainers switch, but maybe it will be for the better? Took this guy a while to break his maiden and he has done quite a bit of bouncing around but all in all has ran decent lately.

3rd #5 Mr. Darcy has ran 3rd four times in eleven starts, and I think he can do it again.  Ran much better last out so hoping he can keep it up for Chris Hartman and Robby Alborado.

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