Race 1
#2 Catanova
This 6 year old gelding has been freshened up for the past couple months. Trainer John Ortiz is having a nice meet, with 8 out of 10 runners having finished in the money. This horse is taking a drop in class, and has some good tactical speed. He should be able to get a good position in here, and if he runs his best race, he’ll be tough to beat.
#5 Wildwood Dancer
First off the claim here for Randy Morse. Ran at a similar level at Churchill last time out. Set the pace in there and then faded. That race was at 7F, so he is cutting back to 6F for this one. The winner of that race, Data Driven, won by 8 lengths that day and has since come back to win again. So Wildwood Dancer lost to an in form horse, and I think this spot is a little easier. He could be able to get a piece of this today.
#1 Small Town Hero
This guy is making his second start of the meet. He won a $10,000 claimer at odds of 52-1 back on October 10th. He got a decent speed figure for the level, and now he is stepping up slightly in class. That was his first start since February, so he might improve out of that race. I like the fact that he has a win over the track, and the connections will see if they can sneak out another win here at Keeneland.
Race 2
#2 Kate’s Golden Dude
Ran in the slop last time at Indiana, didn’t seem to appreciate that. He has hit the exacta in 4 of 6 lifetime fast dirt tries, so he is hoping for sunny skies today. He ran some decent speed figures earlier this year that would put him right in the mix today. Projects to get a stalking trip, and hopefully be able to save some ground from post 2. His last few races were open to older horses, and this one is restricted to 3YOs, so that is also a bonus. Corey Lanerie in the saddle. He’s been a little chilly this meet, but I wouldn’t let that stop me from playing this horse.
#5 Land Battle
His last effort was pretty flat, but he had a pretty rough trip, so I’m willing to forgive that race. He was in pretty good form before that, including a nice win at Churchill two back. Is taking a drop in class from $40,000 to $20,000. He looks like he could be a pace factor in here, possibly the speed of the speed. Another positive is that he is 7 for 7 in the money at this 6F distance.
#6 Strolling
It’s hard to look past his last race. A very impressive 4 length score here at Keeneland a couple weeks ago. That was against non winners of 2 lifetime, but that was also against older horses. Today is just 3YOs. He has shown an affinity for this course. A win and a second in two career starts at Keeneland. Draws great for this race. Should be able to stay in the clear and stalk the speed. It’s Jon Court for Billy Gowan, they are 3-10 over the past year when they team up.
Race 3
#9 Lessons From Avery
This 3YO filly by Lookin at Lucky has been freshened up since August. They added blinkers 2 starts back and that seems to have allowed her to be a little more forwardly placed in those efforts. I still expect her to be toward the rear of this field, as there seems to be a decent amount of pace in this race. She appears to be the best closer in here, so I’m hoping for a clean trip and some racing luck. Shaun Bridgmohan is back in the saddle after riding her last time also.
#6 Celia’s Song
She has been off since her last race in the summer at Saratoga. She will be making her 4th career start here, although her first time on turf, and also her first time going long. I don’t believe either of those things will be an issue considering her pedigree. Also, trainer Eddie Kenneally is very good at these angles: 21% turf to dirt, 22% sprint to route. He also gets his main rider Corey Lanerie. One thing to consider is 3 poor breaks in all 3 starts so far. So hopefully they have been able to correct some of those gate issues. A clean beginning is critical for her.
#5 Homefieldadvantage
Just like Celia’s Song, this filly is making her first start on turf and her first time routing. Being by Ghostzapper, I don’t really see either of these things being an issue. She shows a couple sharp works coming into this for trainer Buff Bradley. Tyler Gaffalione in the saddle, and he is having a very nice meet.
Race 4
#11 Tres Equis
This is not a great race on paper. A pretty low level, and no one in this 12 horse field has ever won at this distance. I’m picking this guy on top mainly as a connections play. Geroux riding for Rudy Brisset. This horse is dropping a little in class from a $10,000 starter allowance into this one. His most recent win was at a very similar level at Churchill, so he’s proven he fits with these.
#9 Tachi
Usually one that settles for minor awards, but one thing I like about him is he won his last race going a mile and a half. That race was turf, this is dirt, but at least he proved he might be able to get a good distance of ground. I have serious questions about the rest of this field trying to get a mile and an eighth. I think he could be finishing the best of them all.
#7 Atta Kid
This colt is trying a new low, having never raced at this low level before. Sent out by trainer Kelly Von Hemel who is clicking at a 20% rate this year, and 23% in claiming races. It’s all or nothing with this horse. He has raced 13 times, 3 wins, 0 seconds, 0 thirds. I think he can lay close to the pace and we’ll see if he has anything left in the stretch.
Race 5
#6 Wild About Candy
This is a tough race for me. I’m going with this one on top mainly because he hasn’t had the chance on a dry track yet. I think he has some talent, but his only two dirt efforts were in the slop. I’m also hoping that 7F will be more to his liking than the route distances he’s been trying. He has shown speed in those races, so I’m hoping he can get a good position early, and that his stamina kicks in and allows him to finish well. Lastly, I LOVE this sire line. I always look for an opportunity to play offspring by Candy Ride, Twirling Candy, Sydney’s Candy, etc. And this runner should be a fair price today.
#1 Raising the Flag
Just two career starts for this colt by Tapit. One all the way back at Gulfstream last winter, and the other this summer at the Spa. Both of those races were super live, and have had multiple next out winners. So this is definitely the softest bunch he as faced so far. However, the lengthy spaces between races can be seen as a negative, and he was very green last time. He absolutely has a chance to win this, but at a fairly short price, I think he is worth taking a shot against. It’s Asmussen, Santana, and (owners) Gary and Mary West; so definitely respect.
#5 Cube
Coming out of maiden special weight tries that proved to be too tough for him. Taking the drop down to $50,000 today, but I have questions about his dirt form. He did have trouble at the top of the lane last time, but I wonder if turf isn’t his preferred surface. He has a good second place finish on the lawn, so that’s why I’m taking a shot against him today. He could win, but in this particular race, I think it’s worth looking for a little bigger price.
Race 6
#3 Jeans n’ Boots
12-1 on the morning line for this first time starter by young sire Cross Traffic. He has a very nice workout pattern leading up to this debut, with many works here at Keeneland. Trained by Kellyn Gorder who is 21% with is FTS, and 20% with his 2YOs. A clean break is always key with these types, so I’m hoping he breaks well and can be forwardly placed. Corey Lanerie in the saddle.
#8 Super Steed
Another first time starter here. This son of Super Saver is trained by Larry Jones, who also has good numbers across the board. 16% FTS, and 25% with 2YOs. This homebred also has a very nice workout regimen leading up to this. A few at Churchill and the most recent one at Keeneland, so he should be used to the surface. As I mentioned with the horse above, breaking clean is very important. Gabriel Saez is the pilot. He is 18% when they team up over the past year.
#2 Boldor
Yet another firster in here. This one being sent out by the Steve Asmussen barn. The first thing that jumped out at me for this one was that hefty $700,000 price tag for this son of Munnings, who only stands for $25,000. So whenever I see a huge gap between purchase price and stud fee, I always take notice. He was purchased at a 2 year old in training sale, so he must have the look of a serious runner. I would expect this guy to be on or very close to the lead if he breaks well.
Race 7
7 Cape Angel
This 4 year old got pretty good over the summer for trainer Joe Sharp. Ran a couple very nice races at Saratoga, went to Kentucky Downs last time and finished fourth. However, he had the outside post in a field of 12 that day, and he was only beaten by a length. He hasn’t shown that he can handle this type of distance, but his pedigree would suggest that it’s possible. One last note, he is a 3-time winner, everybody else in this field are only one time winners.
#4 Sir Sahib
Ran well going a long distance of ground last time out at Kentucky Downs. Has a couple nice bullet works out of that race. His last four efforts, all on the grass, have been solid and consistent. Doesn’t really have much for tactical speed, so he’ll need some pace up front and some racing luck. Chris Landeros rides for trainer Ian Wilkes, they team up often. Over 300 times together the past year, winning at about 15%.
#3 Captain Hardship
Graham Motion ships this one in from the east coast. Distance should not be an issue for this guy. He’s been mostly running these long races since he came to America last year. Just one win in 13 career starts, so I think he is a play against today at a short price. He is another one that lacks early speed, but it looks like pretty much everyone does in this race. That makes it very difficult to project trips and pace scenarios.
Race 8
#9 Thoughtless
This six year old mare is coming off a couple month freshening. Her last couple works over this Keeneland surface look very good. She comes from the McLean Robertson barn, he is 22% with this type of layoff, and he is having a solid meet with 5 in the money finishes from 9 starts. She does draw the 9 post today, which is a little concerning because the outside hasn’t been kind at this Keeneland meet, but I’m hoping she can work out a mid pack trip. Chris Landeros in the saddle.
#1 She’s a Gypsy
She is making her 3rd start of the year here, having won her previous two races. She has improved slightly in each of those efforts, so if she keeps improving I think she has a good chance in this race. She showed some nice ability last year as a two year old, so if she keeps progressing, she could have a nice future. She has been ultra consistent, having hit the board in all five lifetime races. Corey Lanerie is back aboard today, he also rode her to victory in those last two starts.
#6 Grand Prix
It looks like this filly could be the speed of the speed. She has only run twice this year, and those were back in February and March. She’s making her first start for trainer Ben Colebrook. He is a very impressive 30% with horses first time in his barn. He’s also about 20% off the layoff, so combine all that with this girl being fresh, and I expect to see her on or near the lead. She has also shown good consistency, with 7 ITM finishes in 8 career dirt starts. Jose Ortiz rides.
Race 9
#2 Bee Balm
Just one start so far this year for the Calumet homebred. It was a 6.5F turf sprint at Kentucky Downs. She was beaten 5 lengths, but I’m sure she really needed that race off a 10 month layoff. Her one route attempt was a pretty good effort last winter at Gulfstream. She gets back to a distance of ground today and I think that suits her better. Adam Beschizza in the saddle for young trainer Jack Sisterson
#9 Shezalemondropkid
Second time starter here for trainer Ian Wilkes. She is actually coming out of the same race that I mentioned above for my top pick. This girl was only beaten 4 lengths, and Ian isn’t known for having them fully cranked for debut. So I am expecting a move forward today, especially since she is stretching out in distance. Being by Lemon Drop Kid, I think she definitely will like a route of ground. Chris Landeros rides, he and Wilkes team up quite often, and hit at about 15%.
#7 Artistic Quality
The only 4YO in the field. She will probably be the favorite and deservedly so, based on her speed figures. However, I think she is worth taking a shot against. She hasn’t raced since March, and she has settled for the minor awards five times in seven career starts. She hasn’t shown a huge desire to win yet. This is her first start for trainer Bret Calhoun, and he is adding blinkers in hopes that will help her get over the hump. He is very effective when doing that (25%).