It’s closing week here at Keeneland, and the card is a little lite today. But there are a few good races, so let’s see if we can get some winners. Good luck!
Race 1
#4 Optimal
This horse has spent most of his career in sprint races, but I’m interested in giving him another chance at a route. His even running style in the sprints might suggest he’s looking for more ground. This isn’t a very strong group on paper, and these are not connections that win very often, but I still think this horse fits in here. There is no speed in this race, so I’m hoping Gabriel Saez gets aggressive leaving the gate and can get a good position early on. Lee Rossi owns and trains this gelding.
#1 Romano
This guy is the most experienced runner in the field, making career start number ten. He’s run some respectable races before, but he just seems to run the same race every time. He usually cashes a check, but hasn’t shown a huge will to win yet. Drawing inside could be helpful. Trainer Wayne Catalano is having an effective meet. His main rider, and also son-in-law, Channing Hill will be in the irons. And while I don’t pick this horse on top, I would definitely use him in most wagers.
Race 2
*this is one of the most experienced/oldest fields I have seen in a while. 2 7YOs, an 8YO, and a 9YO*
#2 Monday Confession
This is not a very strong collection of runners. I’ll put this gelding on top just because he looks to be in decent form at the moment. His last couple races produced okay speed figures. He’s never went this mile and an eighth distance before, so I’m hoping he can handle it. He’s got a little speed, so he might be forwardly placed. Edgar Morales will be the pilot.
#8 Tachi
A real veteran here, making lifetime start number 85. He usually settles for the minor awards, but maybe this a field he could beat. This will be his second start of the meet. He had some traffic trouble in the last one. As with all the others in here, I have questions about the distance with this guy. However, this is a proficient trainer and jockey combo, so maybe they can find the winners circle here.
Race 3
#4 Arabian Story
Trainer Ben Colebrook is taking a class drop with this colt today. This will also be his first try on the dirt, but I don’t think it will be a huge issue. His debut at Ellis on the turf was a pretty good effort against a level tougher than this. He doesn’t have any early speed, so I would expect him to be toward the back at the beginning. Corey Lanerie is riding him today, and I think he fits this horse well. Corey is also successful when teaming up with Colebrook.
#11 Shell Fire
I’m mainly interested in this one just because of his last race. It was a respectable effort, and maybe he can build off of that. I think this is a distance that he likes, plus I think he is tactical enough to get a good spot, even with this tough post position. Tyler Gaffalione will be riding him for the first time today, and this horse is owned by country singer Toby Keith. Donnie Von Hemel trains.
#10 Highlight Reel
Well this guy hasn’t shown a whole lot in two career starts so far. But he’s taking a major drop in class today. Plus his last start was off a long ten month layoff, so maybe he could improve today. He does have a couple good works on the tab since that last race. He gets one of the meet’s top riders, Julien Leparoux, to guide him today.
Race 4
#7 Frontana
Not much really needs to be said here other than it’s a Wesley Ward first time starter. As we know, Ward is great with these types, especially the turf sprinters. This colt has a nice pedigree, he may actually like more ground at some point. But I do think he could still be effective at today’s distance. There is a sharp work here at Keeneland leading into this race, so I assume he’s ready to fire. Tyler Gaffalione will ride.
#5 My Man Flintstone
I know that a first time starter is not a great angle with trainer Ken McPeek. He only hits with about 3% of those. However, McPeek is 15% with 2YOs, so that’s doable. I really like the works for this horse. He’s been working really well for about the past five weeks, and his pedigree absolutely suggests that this horse could run well right off the bat. Both McPeek and jockey Brian Hernandez are having chilly meets, but maybe they are due for a winner here. I will definitely be using this horse in my wagers.
#2 Aye Aye Sir
This is another trainee for Wesley Ward. This colt has made two starts previously, including actually running in a stakes race last time. He has shown very quick speed, but hasn’t really shown the ability to finish yet. I do expect him to be on the lead today, but can he finish it off? We will see. I will be playing against this one. Julio Garcia will be in the saddle.
Race 5
#2 Mongolian Humor
This filly is in career best form. Trainer Vladimir Cerin claimed this one a couple starts ago, and she hasn’t missed a beat. They tried her in the G2 Zenyatta at Santa Anita last time out, and she did not disgrace herself. I think the cutback to a sprint won’t hurt. Plus, Cerin is a very strong 23% when going route to sprint. There looks to be a decent amount of speed in here, so I think she’ll get a stalking trip. Tyler Gaffalione will be aboard.
#5 Summer Delivery
She’ll be making her second start of the meet. Her last start was a very impressive 4 length score over eight other rivals. It was her second start off a layoff, so this will be her third now, so she might even take another step forward today. She has some early speed, so I expect her to be mixing it up in the early going. She is versatile though, and she doesn’t need the lead to win. Corey Lanerie rode her last time, and will be back on for this one. Trainer Phillip Sims is having an effective meet as well.
#4 My Sister Madi
This 5YO mare doesn’t earn the fastest speed figures, but some of her sprint races don’t look that bad. She ran second at this level most recently at Churchill. She doesn’t have a win this year, but she’s hit the board in five out of six starts. She prefers to come from off the pace, so if it heats up early, that could enhance her closing ability. Alex Canchari will ride for trainer Doug Anderson.
Race 6
#9 Bluegrass Parkway
This colt returned to the races last month after being off since May. His return race as a pretty good effort, losing by just a half length. Trainer Rudy Brisset is going to add blinkers for this start, and that’s a very successful (25%) angle for this barn. He may be looking to add a little more early speed to this runner, who hasn’t shown any early foot so far. If he’s able to do that he could get a nice stalking trip in this race. The meet’s leading rider, Julien Leparoux, will be aboard.
#8 Mr Alec
This gelding just graduated from the maiden ranks last time out at Belmont Park. He sat close to the pace, and finished on strongly. That race proved that he doesn’t mind this distance. Both of his races have been pretty good, and he could be the type that keeps improving with each start. Christophe Clement doesn’t send many runners to Keeneland, but when he does, they’re usually very well meant. Brian Hernandez is slated to ride him.
#7 Jimmy D
Trainer David Hinsley brings this one in from Illinois. He claimed this horse three starts ago, and has gradually been stepping him up in class. This is definitely a tough spot, but the horse usually does his best running at the end; so the added distance here may help him. I expect him to be way at the back for most of the race, so hopefully Sophie Doyle can work out a trip when they turn for home.
Race 7
#4 Blueridge Traveler
This 5YO horse has been steadily improving with each start this year. He beat a decent allowance field at Churchill two starts back. His last start was in the G3 Lukas Classic, and he did not embarrass himself at all. He finished fourth in a field of 12, and he was only beaten by four lengths. This is also his favorite distance. He’s finished in the money six out of seven times at this trip. Julien Leparoux will be in the saddle.
#2 Dak Attack
This colt has a lot of layoff lines in his PPs. But when he does make it to the racetrack, he’s shown some talent. This will be his first time actually having a third start of a form cycle. His last two races were good, if he continues to build off those, he could be a major factor here. He’s drawn inside and he does have speed. Corey Lanerie will be aboard him for the first time, but Corey isn’t necessarily a send type of rider. This will also be this horses first try going two turns, so we’ll see how he handles that.
#5 Rocking the Boat
This is the “other” Dale Romans horse. This horse doesn’t win a lot, but he still runs consistent efforts. He would probably prefer some moisture in the track, but even if it’s dry, I think he’s worth using in some wagers. He’s been off since August, but he’s run okay off a break before. David Cohen will have the mount.
Race 8
#2 Daddy Is a Legend
This 4YO filly is all class. She’s been facing graded stakes company ever since she broke her maiden two years ago. She has been facing some very good runners, better than any she’ll be facing here today. The question is whether she’ll be able to fire her best shot today, she’s been off since June, and this is probably just a starting point to something bigger. She’s tactical, so however the race plays out I think she’ll be able to get a good position. Ricardo Santana will be her pilot today.
#8 Limari
This Don Alberto homebred is also quite talented, and she knows how to find the wire first. She’s four for nine lifetime, and her best race so far came here at Keeneland this past spring. She is also a versatile type. She is probably better when she gets the lead early, but she can still be effective from off the pace. Her post position could be to her advantage in this race. Brad Cox trains, and he gets the meet’s leading rider Julien Leparoux to ride.
#6 Vagabond Princess
This mare doesn’t win very frequently, but she might be able to get a piece of this today. She’s run some good speed figures in the past, including some success here at Keeneland before. I would expect her to come from off the pace in this race. Admittedly, I am not familiar with her trainer Kelsie Calvo. Chris Landeros will be in the saddle, and he’s ridden her before, so he’s familiar with the horse.
Race 9
#2 He’s No Bull
This will be first off the claim for trainer Matt Shirer, and that’s an effective angle. Shirer wins at 27% after the claim. This horse’s last race was not very good, but maybe they got him where they want him for this race. If he returns to his form from the summer, he’ll be a major factor in here. He’s got good early speed, and the only other speed horse in here is drawn to his inside. He’s also proven that 7F is a good distance for him, and there is only one other horse in here that has won at this tricky distance. Shaun Bridgmohan will be aboard.
#1 Macca Tree
As I mentioned above, this is the only other horse in this race that has early speed. He’s also won two in a row. As long he doesn’t get into a speed duel with my top pick in here, he’ll have a good chance to win also. Ron Paolucci owns this one, so per usual this horse has seen multiple trainers already. So we’ll see how he runs back in the barn of Anthony Quartarolo. Ricardo Santana has the mount. In a small sample size, he has been effective when riding for this trainer.
#5 Senor Friday
This is the horse I would give a look to for coming from off the pace. He’s been off since August, but the worktab looks good, and Diodoro is 23% off the layoff. He hasn’t run many horses at this meet, but the ones that he has run have been effective. His main rider David Cohen will be the jockey for this one.