Mike has been an avid horse handicapper since he discovered the Daily Racing Form in his Econometrics and Forecasting Data class at Erskine College (SC) in 1992. He has worked as a field auditor, employee benefits consultant, martini bar owner, and is currently a business insurance broker in Columbia, SC. Since his 2009 thru-hike of the Appalachian Trail, Mike has been an avid couch potato and horizontal horse handicapper. He loves burgoo, bourbon, spring time in Kentucky and opening weekends. His girlfriend is an equine pharmacist and she supports his love of horses and handicapping by driving eight hours to various race tracks and reminding him not to hedge, therefore, he hits 3/4s, 4/5s and 5/6s on the regular.
Fade me.
Race One: 1:05 post – MSW 60K 4 ½ F 2YO Fillies
10-7-8-4
Everybody knows that the Keeneland Park spring meet features the first set of juvenile races. Follow Wesley Ward and win about 70% of the baby races. In this race Wesley Ward has two entered, #5 Kimari and #10 Palace Duchess. The standard play for Ward is to scratch one of his entries on race day, leaving the other to win for fun. Ward scratched Kimari, play Palace Duchess on top. #7 Secretly Wicked has three morning workouts from the gate and the 4/2/19 Keeneland workout was extremely sharp. Trainer Jack Hancock gets Jose Ortiz up.
Race Two: 1:39 post – OClaiming 10000 1 1/16 Mile 4YO&Up
8-7-4-9
#4 Strut the Ring was made the ML favorite in this OC race off of his nice performance at the Fairgrounds on 3/16/19. That race against 40K competition was his lifetime best at 7YO. So, let’s beat him. #7 Peekacho has had two very nice wins at Turfway Park since 2/9/19. Jockey Corey Orm stays in the irons giving this one a solid chance. #8 Unstabled is entered by trainer Tommy Drury off of five pretty good efforts at the 5000 Allowance level. Drury sports gaudy numbers with these types and jockey Malcolm Franklin rides again today. It should be noted that this is Franklin’s only mount of the day. Fire away.
Race Three: 2:12 post – MSW 79K 1 1/16 mile (T) 3YO
5-6-12-9
#6 Life Mission looks to be head and shoulders above the rest of the field and has been made the 2/1 morning line favorite. He sports three quality Keeneland workouts since the beginning of March and is 5/6 ITM in career. The problem is that jockey Luis Saez jumps off of him to land on the FTS #5 Flawless Bourbon. Trainer Roger Attfield wins at a 10% clip with his FTS and the 3/30/19 workout on the turf indicates that he is ready to graduate at first asking. #12 Bar Harbor lost his debut at Gulfstream Park on 2/10/19 for Shug. Jose Ortiz stays up and a similar effort to his first race has him in the mix.
Race Four: 2:45 post – MC 50000 7F 3YO & Up
5-10-9-7
#9 Holly Blame has been running some quality races out west against MSW competition and finally ships east to drop into MC competition. Shortening up to 7F might be the ticket for this horse who has a tendency to fade down the stretch. #10 Roan Like the Wind also drops into MC competition for the first time and has gotten the ultimate equipment change since his last race, as he is now a gelding. If the gelding works, he’s right in the mix. #5 Yabba Dabba Dude ships up from the Fairgrounds after three decent efforts against MC competition. He has been going longer and the turn back to a one turn sprint should suit him perfectly. He also could shake loose as the lone speed, allowing jockey Sophie Doyle to walk the dog.
Race Five: 3:18 post – OC 75000 n1x 6 ½F 3YO
5-6-8-10
Trainer Brad Cox normally comes to Keeneland loaded for bear and #6 Pole Setter is entered today off of five very good Oaklawn Park workouts. It appears that Cox has been tightening him up for his first sprint race and he looks dangerous today. #5 Combination has run four quality races, including two minor stakes, and gets jockey Paco Lopez back up today. There is a fair amount of early speed in this race, but trainer Joseph Orseno throws the blinkers on him and who would you rather have on the lead than Paco? #8 R One broke his maiden on 3/5/19 at the Fairgrounds and faces winners for the first time today. Trainer Steve Asmussen has thrown three tightening works into him this past month and he looks ready to roll.
Race Six: 3:51 post – Allowance 81000 n1x 1 ⅛ M (T) 4YO&Up
13-6-3-5
#3 Midnight Tea Time is 12/13 ITM for his career and has been extremely sharp for trainer Joe Sharp, since being acquired in August of last year. He looks to be the most consistent horse in today’s field, but might be better suited underneath. #13 Pillar Mountain is coming in off of an 8 month break, but trainer Todd Pletcher is extremely good with this move. Jockey Jose Ortiz chooses the 13 over another in this race, and that speaks volumes. #6 Kulin Rock just finished a length behind Zulu Alpha in a graded stakes at Gulfstream on 3/2/19. That effort alone is plenty good enough to get it done today.
Race Seven: 4:24 post – Beaumont-GIII 7F 3YO Fillies
8-3-2-5
Bob Baffert ships #2 Mother Mother into Keeneland off of three consecutive graded stakes efforts. The problem has been her running lines as she has lost to Belafina and Chasing Yesterday in all four of her losses. If her west coast speed translates to the Keeneland track, she is dangerous. #3 Queen of Beas returns to the track after a two month freshening to try graded stakes company for the first time for trainer Jorge Abreu and jockey Jose Ortiz. She is certainly headed in the right direction and there is enough early foot in this race to set up her closing kick. #8 Feedback was cross-entered into yesterday’s Ashland, but trainer Chad Brown chose today’s sprint instead. Her company lines show winners and sprinting seems to be her game right now. She has the perfect running style for this race and she should get first jump on the leaders with plenty in the tank to get her picture taken.
Race Eight: 4:57 post – Appalachian-GII 1 Mile (T) 3YO Fillies
5-9-1-3
#9 Regal Glory has done almost nothing wrong for trainer Chad Brown since her 10/6/18 Belmont Park debut. She was no match for A Bit Special in her graded stakes debut, but that’s not necessarily a negative. Fear her. Brown has also entered #1 Clause today with Irad Ortiz up. I prefer Regal Glory over Clause, but you just never know with the Ortiz brothers. I am going to take #5 Princesa Carolina to upset the Brown horses. Her 3/2/19 graded stakes effort was better than it looked and jockey Brian Hernandez chooses to stay with her today. Her last three works show a tightening for trainer Kenny McPeek and she is certainly headed in the right direction.
Race Nine: 5:30 post – MSW 79K 1 1/16 M 3YO
1-2-6-9
#1 Runnin’ Ray ran a monster on 3/16/19 at the Fairgrounds but drifted out in the stretch to finish second. Trainer Joe Sharp has jockey Adam Beschizza back in the irons today after a quality 3/29/19 Keeneland workout. Moving from a sprint to a route should suit this street sense colt just fine. #6 Ranger Up has gradually improved for trainer Todd Pletcher and Starlight Racing. This 575K purchase just missed at Gulfstream Park on 3/2/19. Jockey Luis Saez stays aboard for the possible graduation day. #2 Unveiling stretches out to a route in his second career start today. Shug is super good with this move and the workout lines indicate it just may work as Johnny V takes over as today’s pilot; a huge upgrade.