Saturday October 6th, 2018 at Keeneland
Joseph Wulffe
Twitter: @Whtnbourbonguy
(A notice to all readers: The following race analyses and selections provided are merely my personal opinions on each of the races for Saturday’s card at Keeneland. Feel free to use them however you want. Although let it be noted that the selections are given in order of the three or four most likely runners that can hit the board in each race, starting with the most likely winner of that particular race. Also as Keeneland received a good deal of rain over the course of Thursday night into Friday morning, the turf course has been fairly saturated yet should dry out some by the time of the first turf race on Saturday. Thus all selections for turf races are given with a GOOD rated turf course in mind. Should the turf conditions remain as SOFT or somehow improve to FIRM, please use discretion when considering any selections provided for turf races. FINALLY, BEST OF LUCK TO ALL THE HORSEPLAYERS ON SATURDAY).
Race 1: Mdn 67K, Six Furlongs on the Dirt, For Maidens, Fillies and Mares Three Years Old and Upward. Post Time: 12:40 EDT
Selections: 8-4-1
(8) Tipazar: This three year old daughter of Tapizar ran a solid enough closing effort in her debut in an $85K Maiden race at Saratoga on August 31st over today’s distance. She retains jockey Ricardo Santana Jr, who has been winning at a 21% rate (417 starts) in sprint races this year. Additionally, her last two works over four furlongs were both very solid efforts.
(4) Ruby Roan: Trainer Rey Hernandez sends out this three year old daughter of Jimmy Creed, as sire whose offspring win at a 16% rate as first time starters. Ruby Roan’s dam, Satinet, has nine winners from twelve starters including two stakes winners. Hernandez boasts a 25% win rate with first time starters, while jockey Julie Burke has won with both mounts for the trainer over the past 60 days.
(1) Ipanema Beach: This three year old daughter of Candy Ride is one of the few starters in this race with experience at the distance: she finished second in her career debut over this course last October in a $65K Maiden race. She has finished on the board in four out of her six tries on dirt. Lastly, it is very encouraging to see jockey Javier Castellano hop onboard as over the course of this year he has been winning sprint races at a 21% rate.
Race 2: OC 80000b, 1 1/16 miles on the Dirt, For Fillies and Mares Three Years Old and Upward. Post Time: 1:13 EDT.
Selections: 3-1-7
(3) Mannerly: Four year old daughter of Unbridled’s Song should certainly appreciate the drop in class today. Mannerly has not only won twice before at today’s distance but also one of those wins came at Keeneland back in April against this class level. As there figures to be a decent amount of pace in the race, this should allow her to sit back and stalk the leaders before trying to close late (she does possess the fastest speed at the distance in the field and the highest last out speed figure as well). Trainer Brendan Walsh has been winning with 17% of his runners making their second start off of a layoff over the past three years.
(1) My Mertie: Six year old daughter of Magna Graduate is two for two over the course of her career at today’s distance and has hit the board in 75% of her 28 lifetime starts. She does possess decent tactical speed which can allow her to rate just off pace or stalk from further back and rail draw should be to her benefit. Trainer Boyce has been winning at 22% rate over past three years with runners that won their last race while jockey C.H. Marquez Jr is a 19% winning jockey when racing in routes.
(7) Pinch Hit: This four year old daughter of Harlan’s Holiday should really appreciate the huge drop in class today. As she projects to be forwardly placed with Shaun Bridgmohan aboard, a return to the form she displayed at Indiana Grand earlier this year makes her a legitimate threat. Pinch Hit’s most recent workout was quite solid as well. Trainer Brad Cox boasts a 29% win rate in route races and has won 27% of his 676 starts over the past three years in allowances.
Race 3: Clm 40000, Seven Furlongs on the Dirt, For Three Year Olds. Post Time: 1:46 EDT.
Selections: 6-1-2
(6) Jacktastic: The Ian Wilkes trainee won in his only try at this distance, three starts back at Ellis Park and posted a 90 Bris Speed Rating (BSR) for his efforts. The drop in class and a return to running on the dirt should suit him today. The TimeForm Pace Projector has indicated a pace scenario for this race that favors those horses on or near the early lead which could work to his advantage as he has shown some early speed in the past. Wilkes has been winning at a 22% rate over the past three years when making the switch for his runners from turf to dirt.
(1) Ruler of the Nile: This son of Pioneer of the Nile has shown good early speed in the past, draws a favorable slot along the rail, and should be forwardly placed with Santana Jr. aboard. Additionally, he has won both of his tries at today’s distance. Trainer Steve Asmussen has done well with his starters in their first race after a claim as he has been winning at a 21% rate under those conditions.
(2) Taruca: This son of Creative Cause has won before at both Keeneland and today’s distance. Although he has shown the ability to be forwardly placed in the past, with the amount of other runners entered into this field that project to show good early speed, it is more likely that he will be taken back a bit and instead try to close late. Finally, Catalano has been outstanding in claiming races (26% win rate from 236 starts over the past three years), while Saez holds a 20% win rate in sprint races. Although he may not be able to best some of his classier rivals in this field, he can certainly hit the board at decent price.
Race 4: Clm 30000n2L, Six Furlongs on the Dirt, For Three Year Olds and Upward. Post Time: 2:20.
Selections: 8-5-4
(8) El Cucuy: Trainer Tom Amoss sends out this three year old son of Ghostzapper looking for his second career win while facing a slight bump up in class. In a race filled with good early speed, it is imperative that he break well and get out to an early lead similar to what he did in his last start when he went gate to wire over six and a half furlongs at Churchill Downs on September 16th. El Cucuy certainly has enough speed to accomplish this feat again as evidenced by the 96 BSR he put up in that last out effort, which was the highest last out speed figure amongst the entire field by a wide margin. Amoss has been really good over the past three years not only in sprint races (28% win rate) but also in claiming races (30% win rate).
(5) Bourbon County: As there is a lot of early speed drawn into this field, Bourbon County who prefers to do most of his running from further back employing a pace-stalking strategy, should get an ideal set up to hit the board. While his speed figures at this distance are just average, he has finished in the money two out of three times at six furlongs. Additionally, he should appreciate the slight drop in class. Trainer Eddie Kenneally holds a 22% win rate in claiming races while jockey Javier Castellano has won 21% of the sprint races he’s ridden in this year.
(4) Vital: Although this son of Shanghai Bobby has yet to contest this distance on dirt, he is cutting back slightly in distance as well as class from his previous race and should enjoy those switches. Vital returns to scheduled racing on dirt for the first time since his maiden debut but he does possess good early speed and his front-running style makes him a threat to hit the board provided Murrill can get him to take back a bit and rate as there’s just too many other more accomplished pace-setters in this race and it might be suicidal for him to get into a pace duel with them early on. Trainer Dale Bennett has won a ridiculous 48% of the races he’s entered into with his runners getting the claiming tag for the first time. Meanwhile, Mitchell Murrill has been winning sprint races at an 18% rate this year.
Race 5: Mdn 67K, 1 1/16 miles on the Dirt, For Maidens, Fillies Two Years Old. Post Time: 2:55 EDT.
Selections: 1-6-8
(1) Toy Moon: This daughter of Malibu Moon has yet to contest this distance on dirt but has finished second and third in two tries on turf. Additionally, she has yet to finish out of the money in six lifetime starts. If the early speed that she’s shown in the past on turf translates over to the dirt, then she could be the lone pacesetter in this race and as there are few other runners entered that even have a bit of early speed, there is the distinct possibility that she could take this field in gate to wire fashion. Trainer Mark Casse wins at a 19% rate when making the switch in surfaces from turf to dirt and has been winning 18% of the maiden special weight races he’s entered over the past three years. Finally, Julien Leparoux has won 17% of his route starts this year.
(6) Positive Spirit: The Rodolphe Brisset trainee stretches out to a route distance for the first time in her career but her sire’s pedigree (Pioneer of the Nile) suggests she can handle the increased distance. She will likely be chasing the initial fractions of the top selection but she did show enough of a closing kick in her only career start that she can be a threat to hit the board today. Brisset has won with 30% of his runners making their second career start and additionally wins 42% of the time with horses trying a route for the first time.
(8) Armory’s Angel: This daughter of To Honor and Serve apparently did not care for grass when last seen finishing a disappointing seventh in a $130k Maiden race at Kentucky Downs in early September, so a return to dirt will likely serve her well. She showed good tactical speed in a seven furlong effort at Ellis Park in August where despite finishing second she was gaining on the leader towards the end of the race. While she has never raced at a route distance before, her sire’s pedigree suggests she can handle the stretchout to eight and a half furlongs. Finally, trainer Kenny McPeek has been winning at 24% rate with runners attempting a route distance for the first time.
Race 6: $200,000 Grade 2 Woodford Stakes, Five and a half Furlongs on the turf, For Three Year Olds and Upward. Post Time: 3:30 EDT.
Selections: 4-10-9-2
(4) Extravagant Kid: While this son of Kiss the Kid does move up in class, as he had been racing against listed stakes company in his previous four starts, his record at the distance of 12-4-4-2 is hard to ignore. Additionally in a race with a good deal of early speed, he has shown that he can be quite tactical and sit just off the leaders, stalking the initial fractions before striking as the field turns for home. His most recent speed figure of a 97 BSR at this distance should make him competitive versus this field. Although he has yet to race at Keeneland, he has demonstrated that he can handle some give in the ground (a condition he will likely encounter today) and he will have one of Keeneland’s more accomplished jockeys in Corey Lanerie onboard. Finally trainer Brendan Walsh has been getting his runners back into the winner’s circle at a 15% race following a last out victory.
(10) Will Call: After this four year old son of Country Day finished a disappointing seventh in his last out effort in a $100K listed stakes race at Ellis Park in August, trainer Brad Cox gave him some time off to freshen up and he appears to be in good form coming into this race. He has won or finished second in five of his seven tries at today’s distance and has posted some good speed figures at the distance which should allow him to be competitive against his rivals. He prefers his best running late and provided Bridgmohan can keep him out of trouble, should be closing into contention late. Cox has been winning at a 28% rate with runners coming in off of layoffs of 46-90 days away, while Bridgmohan has 23% of his starts on turf this year.
(9) Vici: This six year old son of War Front was last seen finishing third in a driving effort in the Kentucky Turf Sprint (G3) at Kentucky Downs in September. Although he cuts back in distance by a furlong from that effort, his record of 10-2-3-2 at today’s distance should be enough to allay any fears that this race might prove to be too sharp for him. He prefers to do most of his running, sitting several lengths off of the pace, and there appears to be enough early speed in the race for him to get a good setup to be in contention late. Jockey Tyler Gaffalione has won 19% of his turf starts this year and additionally has won with 20% of his mounts for trainer Mike Maker over the past 60 days.
(2) Bucchero: This six year old son of Kantharos returns to Keeneland looking to defend his title in the Woodford Stakes. It appears that his last effort in the five furlong Turf Monster Stakes (G3) at Parx in early September was merely in preparation for this race as he did not appear to be fully cranked and should give a better account of himself today. It is notable to see that trainer Tim Glyshaw has gone back to Bucchero’s primary jockey Fernando De La Cruz, with whom Bucchero enjoyed many of his earlier triumphs. De La Cruz has been winning at a 17% rate this year in turf races. However, Bucchero seems to have a knack of getting himself into trouble and allowing himself to either get caught up in traffic or bumped around in the final turn of races; these incidents often occur just when he is beginning his drive to challenge the leaders and usually result in his momentum being stymied. Thus it is crucial for him to get a good clean trip to have any chance at hitting the board today.
Race 7: $250,000 Grade 2 Thoroughbred Club of America Stakes, Six Furlongs on the Dirt, For Fillies and Mares Three Years Old and Upward. Post Time: 4:05 EDT.
Selections: 3-7-9
(3) Miss Sunset: This race has all the makings of a potential speed duel developing early on and it seems that whichever runner can outlast her rivals will likely emerge as the winner of the TCA. Miss Sunset comes into this race having won at this distance four times and finished second once in five lifetime tries all the while posting some blistering speed figures. Additionally trainer Jeff Bonde (18% win rate with runners that won their last race) retains the services of veteran jockey Mike Smith with whom Miss Sunset has yet to lose over the course of her last ten starts. Moreover, Smith has been winning at a 28% rate when riding in sprint races this year. Simply put, Miss Sunset appears to be the one to beat here.
(7) Golden Mischief: This daughter of Into Mischief comes into this race after a two month layoff and will face much tougher company having previously raced against listed stakes rivals over the course of her past two starts. However, she has won seven of ten lifetime starts at the distance and her pace-stalking running style should allow her to get the first run at the leaders as the field turns for home. The speed figures she posted in her past two starts were quite good and its encouraging to see Geroux retain the mount. Trainer Brad Cox has won with 29% of his runners that won their last start.
(9) Chalon: The Arnaud Delacour trainee comes into this race off of a layoff of more than three months, yet her recent works suggest she is in good form and should be ready to fire today. It is quite likely that she will be sent from the get go and will contest the initial fractions with rivals Miss Sunset and Vertical Oak. While she certainly has the ability to win today (especially given the speed figures she posted in her most recent efforts), it may be more likely that she succumbs to the effects of the speed duel with her rivals and has to settle for a minor award. Over the past three years Delacour has been winning at a 29% rate with runners that are coming into races off of layoffs greater than 90 days.
Race 8: $400,000 Grade 1 First Lady Stakes, One Mile on the Turf, For Fillies and Mares Three Years Old and Upward. Post Time: 4:40 EDT.
Selections: 3-4-2
(3) Quidura: This five year old daughter of Dubawi comes into this race in fine form having won the eight and a half furlong Ballston Spa (G2) at Saratoga in August in gate to wire fashion, while posting a 99 BSR. Although she has shown good early speed in her last two starts, she has proven that she can be a bit more tactical and win whilst sitting back and stalking the pace, a technique she may be likely to employ today given the presence of several other front-running type rivals that also possess early speed. She has demonstrated that she can handle not only Keeneland but also turf with some give in the ground as her lone win at Keeneland came last year in a Grade 3 over soft going. Castellano (20% winning jockey on turf this year) gets the call for Brown today.
(4) Crown Walk: Trainer Henri-Alex Pantall ships in this three year old daughter of Dubawi to contend for Godolphin in an American turf race for the first time. Although she comes into this race off of a more than two month layoff, her last out effort at Deauville in the Prix Rothschild (G1) was quite impressive given the soft nature of the turf there. She does have some early speed and moreover shouldn’t mind some give in the ground. Mike Smith gets the call to ride and she will be receiving the wonder drug Lasix for the first time today. Crown Walk appears to be the main threat to upset Quidura in this race.
(2) A Raving Beauty: It appears this talented daughter of Mastercraftsman may have come to earth a bit after two ultra impressive efforts at Belmont in May and June. The closing kick that she demonstrated in those two races wasn’t there in her most recent two efforts which is a tad concerning. However her speed figures over the course of her last three starts have been very good and she should appreciate the slight cutback in distance. Moreover, Brown has decided to switch things up a bit and Velazquez will get the call to ride today; perhaps the rider switch will help her. Over the past three years Chad Brown has won a remarkable 26% of and finished in the money in 2052 turf starts.
Race 9: $500,000 Grade 1 Claiborne Breeder’s Futurity, 1 1/16 Miles on the Dirt, For Two Year Olds. Post Time: 5:14 EDT.
Selections: 5-9-13-8
(5) Dream Maker: Son of Tapit will look to try a route distance for the first time for trainer Mark Casse. In a race with a number of very talented colts, many of which have question marks surrounding their ability to get the distance, Dream Maker should have no such issues as his pedigree appears to be loaded with the necessary stamina that will allow the stretch out to eight and a half furlongs. The TimeForm Pace Projector has indicated a fast pace for this race which should allow it to set up well for a closer like Dream Maker. Leparoux (17% win rate at routes) gets the call to ride once again. Finally, the last two works for Dream Maker were exceptionally sharp.
(9) Moonster: One of three runners entered for trainer Dale Romans, this son of Malibu Moon appears to have the best chance of handling the increase (albeit a slight increase) in distance. He has already raced at an won over a route distance and while that victory came in a $56K Maiden at Churchill in September, there is no reason to think that he will not be able to deal with the step up in class. Moonster has demonstrated a pace-stalking running style thus far and will likely employ a similar strategy with Gaffalione (18% win rate in route races) aboard. Trainer Mike Maker wins with 21% of his runners that broke their maiden in their last race.
(13) Mind Control: The winner of the Grade 1 Hopeful at Saratoga back in September, this son of Stay Thirsty looks to stretchout in distance for trainer Gregory Sacco. In his first three starts he has shown very good early speed, but as he is marooned out in post position 13 he will likely have to be sent from the break in order to have any hope whatsoever at hitting the board. Additionally, there are some questions as to whether his pedigree is suited to handle the stretchout in distance. The ML favorite will have Velazquez aboard once again but may be more suitable as an underneath contender rather than a win candidate in this race.
(8) Tobacco Road: The Steve Asmussen trainee, a son of Quality Road, comes into this race as one of the few colts that have actually contested eight and a half furlongs already in their career; in Tobacco Road’s case this came in a fourth place effort in his last out start in the Iroquois Stakes (G3) at Churchill Downs in September. There should be ample enough pace for this closer to have a chance at getting into contention as the field turns for home and his recent speed figures make him a threat against this field. Corey Lanerie (18% win rate in route races) gets the call to ride after having won twice already with this colt. Asmussen seems to have a knack at doing well with two year olds as he has won 19% of his last 1126 starts with horses of that age.
Race 10: $1,000,000 Grade 1 Shadwell Turf Mile Stakes, One Mile on the Turf, For Three Year Olds and Upward. Post Time: 5:49 EDT.
Selections: 11-9-6-7
(11) Almanaar: This six year old son of Dubawi comes into this race for Chad Brown following a solid effort back in August in the ten furlong Arlington Million (G1), where he finished second by a neck to stablemate Robert Bruce. The cutback in distance to a mile should suit him well as it was clear ten furlongs was just too long for him. He appears to be the best closer in the field and if he can get a good clean trip he will certainly be dangerous. There appears to be plenty of pace entered into this race to ensure honest fractions which should set up well for his running style. Although he has yet to contest a race in the United States over a turf course with some give in the ground, he was successful racing in France over softer going. Castellano (28% win rate and 64% in the money rate when riding for Brown over the past 60 days) gets the call today.
(9) Analyze It: Will this be the race where he finally gets back to his winning ways? The three year old son of Point of Entry has developed a nasty habit of caving in races down the stretch when challenged by rivals and as a result has finished second in his last three graded stakes efforts. However, a cut back in distance to a more suitable eight furlongs coupled with a return to Keeneland where he won the Transylvania Stakes (G3) in April over yielding turf in convincing fashion could be just the remedy he needs to cure his bad case of seconditis. Those factors coupled with the speed figures he’s posted in his six career starts make him a very dangerous contender here even against older rivals. Velazquez (21% win rate in turf races) gets the call for Brown today as Irad Ortiz Jr elects to stay in New York to race at Belmont.
(6) Synchrony: This start appears to be a major step up in class for this son of Tapit, but throughout his career it seems that trainer Michael Stidham has always placed him in confidence building spots where he at least has the opportunity to win. Synchrony has managed to hit the board by finishing first or second in all three career starts at a mile and comes into this race in good form after posting a 97 BSR in his victory in the Red Bank (G3) at Monmouth in early September. He has shown that he can certainly handle some give in the ground and provided the projected pace for this holds up, he be flying home late with that ultra impressive closing kick of his. Keeneland veteran Lanerie gets the call for Stidham who has been winning at a 21% rate with runners that won their last race.
(7) Qurbaan: Trainer Kiaran McLaughlin sends out this son of Speightstown to compete against graded stakes rivals in just his second U.S. start after having raced throughout Europe earlier in his career. Although he beat arguably weaker rivals in the Bernard Baruch Handicap (G2) at Saratoga, he won that race after nearly a year long layoff and was able to close well despite there being not a lot of pace. This time out he should expect to be chasing more lively fractions as the pace could likely be fractious early on and this should set up well for his closing running style. Additionally, he should encounter some softer going than his last out and this could only further increase his chances of hitting the board. Mike Smith (21% win rate with closer type horses) will be in the irons today for Kiaran (23% win rate with runners racing in second start off of a layoff).
Race 11: Mdn 67K, Seven Furlongs on the Dirt, For Maidens Two Years Old. Post Time: 6:24 EDT.
Selections: 4-12-2
(4) Limonite: The only runner in this field to have actually contested a race at today’s distance, this son of Lemon Drop Kid turned in a solid effort for trainer Steve Asmussen rallying from off the pace to finish third just beaten by a neck in an $85K Maiden race at Saratoga in September. His recent works have been fairly solid and Asmussen does well with runners racing in their second career race as he has won 21% of his last 382 starts with runners matching that condition. Jockey Ricardo Santana Jr (21% win rate in sprint races this year) will be aboard once again.
(12) Ready and Rich: Trainer Ignacio Correas sends out this son of Super Saver looking to make a step up in class today. Although he failed as the favorite in his last two races, Ready and Rich has hit the board in all five of his career starts and in his most recent effort did post an 87 BSR over six furlongs in a $56K Maiden race at Churchill back in September. Finally his last three works were very solid efforts and it is telling that Correas brings back Leparoux to ride as the jockey has won two of his last four starts for the trainer over the past 60 days and moreover finished in the money in all four of those races.
(2) Swordsman: Trainer Michael Stidham sends out this first time starter, a son of First Samurai. Swordsman’s dam, Saintly Sister, produced two winners from three starters. Additionally, Swordsman’s pedigree suggests he should be able the handle the seven furlong distance with ease. Over the past three years Stidham has produced 19% win rates not only with runners debuting in maiden special weight races but also with runners in maiden special weight races in general. Jockey Corey Lanerie (22% winning jockey this year in sprint races) gets the call to ride today. The pace scenario for this race is murky at best, but if Swordsman remains around his ML odds of 8-1 he is definitely worth using in this race.