[A notice to all readers: While there is a slight bit of rain in the forecast for Friday night it is unlikely to have much of an impact on either surface and thus I would expect a FAST rated main track and FIRM rated turf course for tomorrow. Should conditions for either surface change prior to race time tomorrow, updated selections for conditions and scratches will be provided via Twitter. In addition, once again selections are listed in order with the most likely winner of the race posted first. Though please feel free to use the selections provided in exotic wagers (exactas and trifectas) as well. Finally, one note pertaining exclusively to RACE 9: The Grade 2 Lexus Raven Run Stakes. This is the only race where four selections will be given out and as such when wagering on that race, rather than simply boxing all the selections, please use part wheels instead following this format for exactas (1,2/1-4) and for trifectas (1,2/1-4/1-4). Thank you and again good luck to all the horseplayers tomorrow.]
Race 1: Clm 30000b, Six furlongs on the Dirt, For Three Year Olds and Upward. Post Time: 1:05 PM EDT.
Selections: 6-2-1
(6) Zombie: The Ron Moquett trainee drops in both class and distance coming into this race (he has hit the board in five of eight tries at six furlongs). Running style should be of great benefit to him in this race as TimeForm Pace Projector has indicated a pace that favors those horses on or near the early lead; however, OptixPLOT suggests pace early on could be quite contentious due to the fact that the other early speed horse in drawn right next to him. Moquett has been winning at 17% rate so far in Keeneland meet, while Santana Jr (20% win rate in sprint races) gets the call to ride.
(2) Drop Kick: The John Ortiz trainee will be cutting back in distance from a mile in his last out effort but stepping up in class to a level at which he has finished second once before, so be wary. However, Drop Kick has hit the board in four of his five tries, including two wins, at six furlongs and recent speed figures at the distance suggest he can be competitive here. A fast pace could really help this son of Power Broker who will be closing late from well back. Ortiz has had his runners finish in the money in six of his first seven starts so far at Keeneland and it is very encouraging to see Jose Ortiz (19% win rate in sprint races this year) pick up the mount.
(1) One River Place: The Tim Glyshaw trainee draws a beneficial rail position today as the rail has been winning at a 25% clip. Additionally, One River Place has finished in the money in six of his nine lifetime tries at the distance, will be dropping in class as well and boasts the highest speed figure for the distance (although that came back in an effort in May at Churchill Downs). The ageless Calvin Borel gets the call to ride and he has had past success with this horse having hit the board in three of his past four times onboard One River Place.
Race 2: MC 30000, 1 1/16 miles on the Dirt, For Maidens, Fillies and Mares Three Years Old and Upward. Post Time: 1:39 PM EDT.
Selections: 5-2-6
(5) Absolute Love: The Kenny McPeek trainee comes into this race having finished third versus tougher rivals at today’s distance over a sloppy track at Churchill Downs last month, so she certainly should appreciate not only the drop in class but also a return to slightly drier running conditions. While she has yet to win in nine tries at this distance, she has filled out the exacta or trifecta in six of those nine starts and furthermore boasts the highest last out speed and fastest overall speed at the distance amongst the entire field. Her running style should have her forwardly placed which bodes well for her chances of hitting the board as there does not appear to much in the way of any other early speed entered. Hernandez Jr (18% win rate in route races this year) gets the call to ride.
(2) Fiduciary Values: Trainer Joe Sharp is hoping that a return to dirt racing and the removal of blinkers (35% win rate when removing the eyewear) will do something for this filly as she has yet to show much if anything over the course of her first three career starts. However she does drop in class coming into this race and is cutting back slightly in distance which hopefully could work to her benefit. Sharp meanwhile does boast a 21% win over the past three years not only with horses running in their second race off of a claim but also when going from Maiden races to Maiden Claiming races.
(6) She’s So Bossy: Trainer Tim Glyshaw sends out this daughter of Street Boss looking to stretch out to a route distance for the first time in her and her pedigree certainly suggests she can handle the extra furlongs. Additionally she will be receiving a bit of class relief today so that could bode well for her chances at being competitive in this race (although she already is one of the more classy fillies entered into this field). Glyshaw has done alright when going the Sprint-Sprint-Route method with his runners in the past as he has a 13% win rate over the past three years but does boast a positive R.O.I. with that stat. Gabriel Saez, 17% win rate when riding in route races this year, will be in the irons today.
Race 3: Mdn 67k, 1 1/16 miles on the Turf, For Maidens, Fillies Two Years Old. Post Time: 2:12 PM EDT.
Selections: 2-8-4
(2) Sister Kitten: The Chad Brown trainee will be making her second career start today and she was far from disgraced in his debut as she finished second at today’s distance over a yielding turf course at Saratoga to Newspaperofrecord, who dominated the Miss Grillo Stakes (G2T) at Belmont last month and will be running in next month’s Breeder’ Cup Juvenile Fillies Turf (G1T). In that lone effort, not only did Sister Kitten post the highest last out speed rating amongst the entire field but she also holds the fastest speed figure for today’s distance as well. From a class standpoint she towers above her rivals, it’s Chad Brown on turf and Jose Ortiz gets the call to ride once again. Sister Kitten appears to be the most likely winner of this race and the only negative about her is the likely very short price at post time.
(8) Hidden Facts: The Brian Lynch trainee exits an $85K Maiden race in which she acquitted herself well after running on the turf for the first time. She finished second by just half a length and posted a 76 Bris Speed Rating (BSR) in doing so. This daughter of The Factor has been training well in the weeks leading up to this race and Lynch does fairly well with getting his runners to fire after layoffs of 46-90 days (15% win rate over the past three years). Julien Leparoux, who has already won seven starts so far at Keeneland, returns to ride again.
(4) Free to Fly: This daughter of Wilburn exits a six and a half furlong $130K Maiden race at Kentucky Downs in which she didn’t show much for up-and-coming trainer Norm Casse. However her pedigree suggests that today’s distance is within her abilities to stretchout to, she will be getting some class relief today, and she has fired off a couple of sharp works since her first race. Thus far in his career, Casse has posted a 33% win rate (along with a positive R.O.I. of $2.11) with runners making their second career start and Florent Geroux (14% win rate when riding in turf races this year) will be aboard today. Free to Fly may not be quite as good as some of her classier rivals in this field but she certainly warrants inclusion playing underneath in this race.
Race 4: Mdn 67k, 1 1/16 miles on the Dirt, For Maidens, Two Years Old. Post Time: 2:45 PM EDT.
Selections: 5-3-7
(5) Synthesis: Keith Desormeaux sends out this son of First Samurai following a disappointing showing in the Iroquois Stakes (G3) at this distance last month at Churchill Downs. This race is an absolute conundrum as there does not appear to be any early speed entered into the field whatsoever, yet both the TimeForm Pace Projector and the standard OptixPLOT have indicated that Synthesis is likely to be out on the lead, perhaps all alone. While it is true that this colt is the classiest runner in this field by a long shot and will be making a major drop in class today, he has yet to show any propensity for displaying early speed. His speed figure from that last out effort is tied for the highest at the distance and he did post a fairly sharp work at Churchill Downs last week. Synthesis is the meekest of top selections for this race, especially at 3-1 ML odds.
(3) Curlin Grey: The McPeek trainee exits a $56K Maiden race in which he finished a game second after closing from well back. He too boasts an 85 BSR which is tied with Synthesis not only for the highest last out speed rating but also for the fastest speed at the distance. Racing at longer distances seems to suit this son of Curlin and McPeek has done well with getting his runners to fire in their third start off of a layoff (14% win rate over the past three years). Julien Leparoux (17% win rate in route races this year) gets the call to ride. This colt will certainly be charging late down the stretch but in a race with zero speed up front, such a running style may be better suited for playing underneath only.
(7) Thundershook: The other McPeek trainee in the field, Thundershook exits the same race as that of his stablemate Curlin Grey and in fact finished less than a length behind him all the while posting an 84 BSR. This colt should also have no problems handling the eight and a half furlong distance once again and also displays a closing running style as well, although he appears to prefer to be a bit more forwardly placed than his stablemate. Brian Hernandez Jr (18% win rate in route races this year) will be onboard. Again, it would be a surprise to see Thundershook win this race given his running style, so he merits use as an underneath play only in this race.
Race 5: Alw 10000s, 1 1/16 miles on the Dirt, For Three Year Olds and Upward. Post Time: 3:18 PM EDT.
Selections: 3-6-4
(3) Surprise Prize: The Phil Sims trainee exits a race at this level and distance having finished second last month at Churchill Downs, while posting a 90 BSR which is the highest last out speed rating amongst the entire field. While this son of Pure Prize has finished in the exacta in three of four tries at this distance and has done fairly well in the past at this class level, keep in mind that earlier this year he has failed at this class level and distance (a ninth place finish in which he was done halfway through the race). That being said, Surprise Prize projects to be the early front runner in this race as he has blazing early speed and can finish strongly as well. If none of his rivals elect to go with him initially, he has the potential to get out to an early lead and could wire this field. Despite being the 2-1 ML favorite in the race, he will still be the top selection as he appears to be the most likely winner.
(6) Mineyerownmalone: This son of Mineshaft goes out for trainer David Vance making his second start for the trainer after finishing third at this class level in a seven furlong race earlier this month at this meet. The distance likely proved to be too short for him as although he rallied in the stretch and was gaining on his rivals, he simply ran out of room and a return to a route distance (where he is 10-5-1-0) should suit him much better. Additionally this gelding figures to be more forwardly placed than in that last effort and as such should have a better chance at hitting the board today. Corey Lanerie gets the call to ride and he has been winning at a 17% rate when riding in routes over the past year.
(4) True West: This son of Langfuhr exits a second place effort at today’s distance in a listed stakes race at Canterbury last month for trainer McLean Robertson. He too has shown a tendency to be forwardly placed and will likely be found sitting back just a few lengths off of the initial pace in the early stages of the race. Robertson has done extremely well with getting his runners to fire when coming in off of layoffs of 46-90 days as he has won 23% of his past 167 starts over the last three years. Jareth Loveberry will be in the irons today and over the past 60 days he has won with a remarkable 35% of his mounts for the trainer. True West does not appear to have great finishing ability so he may be best used as an underneath play only in this race.
Race 6: Alw 69000n1x, Five and a half furlongs on the Turf, For Three Year Olds and Upward. Post Time: 3:51 PM EDT.
Selections: 11-1-2
(11) Mister Maestro: Trainer Michael Tomlinson ships in this six year old son of Bernstein following a campaign over both the Polytrack and turf at Arlington Park earlier this year. Simply put, Mister Maestro has absolutely blazing early speed no matter which surface he’s running on and it’s quite likely that speed will be on display once again today, especially considering that he is drawn to the far outside in this fairly large field for a turf sprint. Even though this race marks a significant step up in class for him, Mister Maestro should have no problems dueling with several others whilst on the lead in what OptixPLOT envisions to be a fairly contentious early pace and if he can put away those rivals, he has shown good enough finishing ability that he could potentially take this field from gate to wire. Tomlinson over the past three years boasts a 40% win rate when transitioning his runners from all weather surfaces to turf and also holds a 17% win rate when shipping in to race.
(1) Taxman: The Brendan Walsh trainee will be making his second U.S. start today after beginning his career racing over the all weather and turf tracks in France. In that first start, a $130K Maiden race at Kentucky Downs over six and a half furlongs, Taxman did quite well to prevail over his rival Fooch (more on him in a bit) despite being bumped in the latter stages of the race. Additionally he has raced once before at today’s distance while in France when he finished third in a minor stakes race. OptixPLOT rates Taxman as a deep closer in this field and it is likely that he will be coming from far back in the latter stages of the race but this running style should work out alright given the abundance of early speed type horses in this field. Over the past three years Walsh has done very well with runners receiving Lasix for the second time as he boasts a 24% win rate over that time period. It may be a bit difficult for Taxman to pass the entire field before hitting the wire but he certainly has an excellent chance of finishing in the money today.
(2) Fooch: This son of Gemologist exits a $40K Maiden Claiming race at Belmont Park earlier this month for trainer Wesley Ward in which he essentially took the field gate to wire. Fooch has excellent early speed and projects to be one of the main rivals to Mister Maestro in this field; although his finishing abilities are not quite as strong as those of his rival and he has yet to be tested at such a short distance on the turf. Additionally, today’s race marks a major step up in class for him and as such the test may prove to be a bit too much. While Ward has done well with returning runners that broke their maiden in their last race to the winner’s circle (24% win rate from 147 starts), it may be best to play this one as an underneath play only in this race.
Race 7: Clm 50000b, One mile on the Dirt, For Fillies and Mares Three Years Old and Upward. Post Time: 4:24 PM EDT.
Selections: 7-2-4
(7) Lil Vie: This daughter of The Factor will be stepping up in class today for trainer Michelle Lovell after essentially taking a $30K claiming field gate to wire at today’s distance at Churchill Downs last month. Although the speed figure that she posted in that effort leaves much to be desired as it is several notches below those of some of her main rivals in this field, if she can find a way to return to the form that she displayed at the beginning of this year then she could be dangerous against this field. Moreover, it should be noted that in her only two attempts at a mile, Lil Vie ended up wiring both fields, winning by healthy margins in both efforts. She should be forwardly placed or on the lead once again today, which bodes well for her chances of winning as not only does the TimeForm Pace Projector suggest the pace will favor those horses on or near the early lead but also the OptixPLOT has indicated that she has the best chance of finishing well in this race given her running style. Finally it is very telling that Jose Ortiz has signed on to ride as he is 17% winning jockey this year when riding in route races.
(2) Patti Patti Patti: Trainer Doug Goodman sends out this daughter of Sidney’s Candy following an impressive effort over $16K Optional Claimers at Belterra Park. For her effort in that race just over a mile she posted an 88 BSR which is the highest last out speed figure amongst the entire field. Additionally this filly should have no issues cutting back slightly in distance as she has hit the board in four of her five tries at today’s distance. She figures to be forwardly placed and should our top selection be unable to put away her rivals down the stretch, Patti3 appears to be the most likely runner to take up the lead and hit the wire first. Goodman has done well over the past three years when entering his runners into route races as he has been winning them at an 18% rate. Finally, Victor Lebron gets the call to ride again after that last race and he has been winning route races at a 21% rate this year.
(4) Aife: This daughter of Paddy O’Prado exits a third place effort against tougher company when last seen competing in a $58K Allowance race over eight and a half furlongs at Churchill Downs last month. A return to racing at shorter distances may be necessary for Aife to get back into the winner’s circle though as she had been finishing better, albeit over the all weather at Presque Isle Downs, at distances around a mile earlier this year. Aife’s preferred running style is that of a mid pack stalker and she will likely be sitting just back of the initial pacesetters early on before trying to make a bid for the lead in the latter stages of the race. Over the past three years, Joe Sharp has been winning claiming races at a 24% rate and moreover finishing in the money at a 56% rate. Although it is quite possible that she could win this race today, given her ML odds of 6/5, it may be worth taking a stand against her today and only using her as an underneath play in this race.
Race 8: Alw 71000n2x, One and a half miles on the Turf, For Fillies and Mares Three Years Old and Upward. Post Time: 4:57 PM EDT.
Selections: NONE
I do not have a strong opinion on this race for two reasons. The first is that this assembled field has a combined record of 9-0-1-2 for the distance amongst all nine runners. The second reason is that three of the four classiest runners in the field are also the top three ML odds choices and all of them have a fairly good chance of hitting the board, especially if they can handle the distance. Thus this race offers very little betting value and I will pass on it.
Race 9: The $250,000 Grade 2 Lexus Raven Run Stakes, Seven Furlongs on the Dirt, For Fillies, Three Years Old. Post Time: 5:30 PM EDT.
Selections: 5-8-9-6
(5) Alter Moon: This daughter of Alternation goes out for the barn of trainer Chad Brown following a somewhat disappointing effort in the Longines Test Stakes (G1) at Belmont last month in which she lost to her stablemate Separationofpowers and finished a nose behind one of her rivals today, Kelly’s Humor. However, other than that start, she has finished in the exacta in her three other tries at today’s distance and her speed figures for all those efforts certainly make her a contender against this field. Moreover, her running style could prove to be her greatest asset today as she is a pace stalker and if Ortiz can give her a good trip, she looms to be the biggest threat to seize command of the lead should the early pacesetters wear themselves out dueling for the lead. Additionally, she has great finishing ability as evidenced by her positioning on the OptixPLOT and thus should be considered a logical win contender for this race. Finally, Brown has been incredibly successful at getting his runners to fire off of layoffs of 46-90 days (27% win rate) and has also had his horses finish in the money 61% following that period of time off. Although, Alter Moon will likely go off at slightly lower odds than her ML of 7/2, she is definitely worthy of consideration as a top choice in this race.
(8) Chauncey: This daughter of Jimmy Creed makes her debut for the barn of trainer Steve Asmussen following a gritty second place effort in the Charles Town Oaks (G3) for trainer Lacey Gaudet last month. Chauncey has finished in the exacta in both her attempts at seven furlongs and in each effort posted respectable speed figures which should make her at the very least competitive against this field. This filly is a pace-stalker, although she figures to do her running from further back in the pack early on before making a bid for the lead in the latter stages of the race. Considering her last effort at seven furlongs came around two turns, she may in fact appreciate the return to a one turn elongated sprint race and could certainly be a threat t o hit the board especially if some of her main rivals fail to fire today. Over the past three years Asmussen has won 18% of his past 125 starts with runners making their first start for him. Finally, Chauncey will have jockey Shaun Bridgmohan in the irons today, a 17% winning jockey when riding in sprint races this year.
(9) Moonshine Memories: Trainer Simon Callaghan ships in this daughter of Malibu Moon following a remarkable effort in the Prioress Stakes (G2) at Saratoga last month in which this filly somehow managed to finish a game third just a head behind the second place finisher despite getting bumped and having to check hard at the start of the race. Although the speed figures she posted in her two on the board efforts at seven furlongs are a notch below some of her rivals in this field (she may in fact be better at six or six and a half furlongs), Moonshine Memories is certainly a major contender amongst this field, especially if she breaks well this time and is given a good pace stalking trip. Her most recent work at Santa Anita was an absolute bullet and should serve as a good indicator that she is in fine form coming into this race. Callaghan has been winning races at a 20% rate over the past three years when shipping in his horses to run and it is very telling that Mike Smith has signed on to ride (in fact this is his only mount today) as he has been winning sprint races at a 27% rate this year. Moonshine Memories might be the clear favorite in this race, but given her post position, similar running style to many others in this field and low ML odds, she may be a vulnerable favorite and could offer more value playing underneath in this race.
(6) Kelly’s Humor: This filly exits a third place effort in the Test Stakes (G1) for trainer Brad Cox and has yet to miss hitting the board in any of her four efforts at seven furlongs. Quite simply Kelly’s Humor is a closer and in a race with an abundance of early speed and the possibility of strong initial fractions, normally this should work out well for her. However, given the fact that there are 13 other rivals entered into this race, she may have to work extra hard to get past a good deal of those other runners in order to have any chance at hitting the board. That being said, she has produced solid speed figures in her recent attempts at the distance, has excellent late closing speed, and has experience along with an on the board finish over the Keeneland main track. She also fired off a scorcher of a workout over a muddy Keeneland main track last week and appears to be quite fit coming into this race. Cox, over the past three years, has gotten his runner into the winner’s circle, following layoffs of 46-90 days, in 28% of his last 387 starts. For Kelly’s Humor to win today would be a tall order but she will definitely offer value if used in an underneath fashion in this race as she is much more likely to round out an exacta or trifecta.
Race 10: Mdn 67k, 1 1/16 miles on the Turf, For Maidens, Fillies Two Years Old. Post Time: 6:03 PM EDT.
Selections: NONE
I have no firm opinion on this race whatsoever. Only one runner in this race has even attempted today’s distance, several lack the pedigree to even get the trip, there are a number of first time starters in the field, and the pace scenario for the race is murky at best. Thus I will be passing on this race.